Lou Thomas

Job Numbers Don't Freak Out Dollar Bulls

Data was "quite bad, but not terribly bad." Just bad enough, then. Is that what we mean these days by the Goldilocks economy?

This column doestn't tell us a lot that we couldn't have read from the charts, but it does provide a nice little irritating grain of sand around which we unwashed folks can post our little pearls of wisdom.

Some of the other posters have opined that deflation might be the reason that the dollar is up vs. the Euro. Certainly, when you wipe out huge amounts of financial paper through write-downs and deleveraging, you reduce the number of dollars in circulation.

But consider that there is over $6 trillion in cumulative trade surplus waiting to rush in to fill that hole by buying up our businesses for a fraction of their earlier values. Did you notice that there are now 26 Sovereign Wealth Funds with over $2 trillion in dollars waiting to roll into the U.S. with their carpetbags? The IMF tried to get them to subscribe to a voluntary code of behavior last week, and they said, "OK, so long as there is no transparency and no enforcement mechanism." They are getting ready to put those dollars back into circulation.

With the U.S. consumer tapped out, there is less incentive for these export-oriented nations to continue to prop up the dollar so that they can sell to the U.S. Maybe if Europe is in better (not good, just better) shape they will buy some Eurozone treasuries to prop up the Euro so that they can start selling more there. And, of course, they will start to grow their middle classes, but that could take a few years to accomplish.

When the SWFs get here with their big empty shopping bags, will there be enough desirable businesses to consume all of those foreign-held greenbacks, given the cratering of the stock market and the U.S. economy? Already, we see Lehman walking around with its hat in its hand, sipping on a bottle of low cost gin and hallucinating contributors out of the shadows. Financials have been a rather harsh experience for foreign investors. If they don't get something more to their liking, how long will it be before those dollars find their way onto the forex markets to obtain the currencies of other nations that still have something to export? Then where will the dollar be going?

And let's not forget about *dis*-investment. The market is tanking. Fannie and Freddie are tanking. Oops - breaking news - U.S. is assuming Fannie and Freddie's debt - which makes me wonder: will the U.S. Treasury be able to retain the AAA rating on its bonds? Just one of those vile thoughts that sneaks in when everything is going to seed (and that's a euphemism).

Yes, the Euro has problems, but nothing like those of the U.S. The dollar is heading down. I live in the U.S., but still with all of our aggressive, illegal invasions, its hard to complain about this present turn of events. Hope that we can patch things together eventually and become a kinder, gentler place that only invades other nations, say, every twenty years or so. Here's a wild thought: make them save up the money in advance *before* they can have a war. *That* should keep things relatively peaceful. We U.S. citizens need to work on developing a sense of shame and disgust; this is my little contribution to that project.

Forex Wrapup: Dollar Benefits As Traders Focus on Weak Economies Elsewhere

Aceman, your comment turns everything upside down.

First of all, as I mentioned, as recently as July 30th Grace opined that the dollar rally was likely to stall just as it really took off, so based upon what should we watch her for further news?

Secondly, as everyone knows and agrees, if Trichet continues to increase interest rates, that favors the Euro and puts downward pressure on the USD, not the other way around as you have stated.

Thirdly, yes, the European economy would be able to export more if the dollar is stronger, so I agree with you there, although of course a stronger dollar means that the U.S. can continue to run a deficit better, which feeds inflation in Europe, and that is an offsetting concern that may make the ECB, whose mission is to control inflation, take a hard line on interest rates.

Finally, the more inflation China has the less inclined it will be to continue supporting the dollar, which is the most important single thing that has kept the dollar afloat at all for so long - so Chinese inflation is not good for the dollar. One could argue that the present decline of commodity prices helps to *reduce* Chinese inflation, and therefore gives them more room to support their exports to the U.S. by supporting the USD, and that would be a reasonable argument, but you seem to have said the opposite.

And, the U.S. does not really benefit from a rising dollar, because as the world's largest debtor nation, the less its currency is worth, the lower the value of its outstanding debts to others. Inflation always favors debtors, although of course if they have to borrow more the cost of borrowing will go up.

Forex Wrapup: Dollar Benefits As Traders Focus on Weak Economies Elsewhere

"Weak US economy to pull the dollar down? That’s an old story."

It's not "old;" it's a magazine story that is being serialized in installments. Wait for the next one, coming quite soon. The suspense is in wondering what it will be? Fannie insolvency? Freddie insolvency? Housing values? Consumer spending? More writedowns beyond subprime in Alt-A, credit card debt (up $15 billion in July), auto loans, student loans? Hundreds of new bank insolvencies, leading the FDIC to appeal to the government for a bailout (it had only 53 billion, and Indymac alone took about 23 billion up front, all of which but 4-8 billion will be recovered, but not for 6 years or so, so they could easily run out). Stock values as consumers shut their wallets? Credit double crunch as the U.S. government pumps hundreds of billions into the deflating housing bubble by bailing out the GSEs and maybe the FDIC, and has to issue more treasuries at very high interest rates to fund those bailouts? Flight of foreign capital from GSE bonds and treasuries?

It's like waiting for the other shoe to drop when your upstairs neighbor is a centipede. Yeah, it's "old" like Europe is so "old world" and dried up, as Bush tried to claim. We only like "new" stories here, because here in the good old USA we have no historical memory. If something has already happened, then, as the song goes, "I said it once - whyyyy say it again?!"

I'm truly shocked that you could attempt to offset all of the above with some vague words about rate expectations changing. Based upon misreading Trichet's raised right eyebrow - how prophetic. Do you think that these interest rate changes rule the economic world?

And what in the Eurozone compares with the above? U.S. problems are orders of magnitude greater than those of the Eurozone.

Sorry - the dollar increase is an anomaly. You yourself predicted that the dollar's rise would not continue on July 30th, in your article "Dollar Rally Likely to Stall." This present article shows that you have no foundation in analysis - your articles are blown about by the winds of exchange rates, and your feet no longer connect with the ground.