JohnnyM

Threat to Petrodollar Sees Gold Surge to Near Record Highs

The cog wheels are turning. Gold is no doubt going much higher mostly on pure speculation at this juncture but it may go much higher when the smoke clears in early 2010.

The US will not be raising rates and therefore the move to gold will increase. There seems to be many factors supporting gold at this moment. A strong dollar is spoken but a weak dollar is what will help us re- gain our strengths.

Gold $1100 may be seen by next week.

John

Why This Rally Is Unsustainable

I thoroughly enjoyed your article and the detailed arguments for a decline.

I have to follow the trend here and wait to short anything. Eventually the short end of the game will be adding fuel to the current rise. Conventional wisdom would believe that this rally cannot be sustained but then we must all deal with reality. The rise continues and your DOW 9000 may have been a great call after all.

Johnny M

Sucker's Rally Approaching an End

Deepv...my sentiments exactly and the analysis is dead on!

What a hoot this market has been for savvy investors to hop on right after the market bottomed on that Monday and the current skepticism is the catalyst to keep it firm and nimble. Some will need to wait for the proverbial 'pullback' before pulling the trigger. God bless them!

So many get caught up in the media and public negativity that they can't see the forest for the trees and won't because of their steadfast beliefs. I would be pissed if I had missed the buy opp that was there when the financial guidelines began to change that weekend. Many will still scratch their heads in annoyance that they missed the easy money and wonder still why anyone would still be buying this market. Buy selected stocks that will do well in an up and down market on Monday and you will be well rewarded next year if you have the guts and stomach to hold. I loaded that Tuesday because.... many great stocks were so cheap, the rules were changing as expected, the gov't was making moves and O'Bama began to tone down the pessimism. Secret recipe for a light at the end of the tunnel. Actually, all that occurred was a change in sentiment and Spring was coming. We all feel good then.

The bottom has been seen in the stock market but not in our economic package. Try not to relate them, that's where you get derailed. Hopefully some of you will go back to past recessions and view the stock charts and put some cash to work before the next 10 or 15% shows up in certain areas. This is not complicated...don't make it so. Keep it simple.

What V shaped recovery? Look at the chart. Shorts are going to get a wake up call as some of us continue to climb the global wall of doom daily!

Bull market, bear market...bla bla bla. It's a market and the globe is looking to put cash to work as each day passes by. Which way do you think the trend will be, up or down? Some of the buy opportunities in front of us will not be seen again for many years. Load up at lows and hold on tight through the ups and downs.

Maybe DOW 8500 will be our ST top? If so, more will claim the pull back is coming.... of course at some point they will get their pullback and declare... " See I told you so! "


On Apr 18 11:13 AM Deepv wrote:

> The idea that stock performance = economic data is gonna crush you guys.
> That is predicated on great depression thinking. In great recession
> thinking one must employ valuation and remember we operate in a global
> economy with many positive secular trends. The days of making money
> (shorting) by trading a -headline are dead. Find me a person that
> does not know consumer is stretched? Yet in the horror of the market
> look how much Bed Bath Beyond earned in quarter ended Feb? It's incredible.
> You think that's gonna change? Why? What evidence. The market should
> not reward consensus view. This board still indicates consensus view
> is decidedly bearish. Good.

E*Trade: More Good News

All we have to do is load up on some cheap stock and play the long game. Etrade is going up for various reasons and all of them are indeed positive for the long term.

This game is just warming up and the short game will add some sizzle. Try not to get bogged down by the tiny details, they will become green in time.

The analysts will have to cover soon along with their buddies. If the short game on Etrade is anything like Citigroup's shafted short players, we will be looking at a $10 stock in two weeks!

JM

E*Trade: A Bet Worth Making

Why would anyone listen to an analyst who is recommending the big sell tactic after the company stock gets pummeled to 50+ cents? The better and bolder analyst would have done so at $20 but in reality that just doesn't happen. When the pros say to sell when near the bottom...I say BUY BUY BUY!

Look at the chart, look at the market....you know which way ETFC is going and it ain't South! Watch Citigroup take off too. A ton of fun is headed our way.

John M


On Mar 15 05:45 PM in4thelonghaul wrote:

> ETFC has a nice trading platform and the banking integration is a
> real plus which should be attractive to potential acquirers. That
> said, in this increasingly tough financial environment, greater numbers
> of frequent traders will continue to balk at the excessive fees which
> brokers such as ETFC charges. Only idiots or infrequent traders
> will continue to use ETFC, when fees are so much cheaper at other
> discount brokers like IB,MBT,TradeKing and OptionsHouse.
>
> Interesting that ETFC rose over 13% on Friday in spite of the idiot
> C analyst .25 target. The best hope for ETFC shareholders is an
> offer from another broker/banker, maybe GS.

Hedge Funds, Oil Prices and Resulting Recession

That commentary is scary. Many will buy it hook, line and sinker but it leaves many factors out of the picture. The commodity oil market was manipulated as we had a fast move from $115 to $130 bbl only months ago. Was it Hedge Fund managers who moved oil up? Not completely, they were mostly shorting oil at the time. It was the usual fraud through manipulated oil reserve figures which allowed some to make billions on the back of forced short covering by many managers around the globe. The $145 bbl level could not be sustained as it was driven mostly by short covering. Now with oil sub $40 bbl, we may wonder where a true value lies since $200 bbl seems to have been a GS pipe dream.

The market and commodity collapse came about due to an inflated housing market. That was created by Congress and the WS boys who were only too happy to keep Goldilocks in curls despite heavier downpours. Push more cash onto the public, provide homes to those who have no ability to pay, give them inflated rates which will surely fail in time, etc. Of course there was individual fraud taking place at desks all around the US as easy money was just too hard to turn away. They took advantage of the poor.

Global recession affected by the WS boys who concocted a method to sell risky junk mortgages with a bonus insurance plan to investors around the globe for high returns. Result, inability to cover the insurance claims (CDS) for the failed mortgages. Major global institutions go bankrupt, more borrowing good money after bad. A cash and then a credit crunch as cash becomes scarce as its just too risky to lend or help the weak.

I don't blame the Hedge Fund managers who also got caught in this perfect storm. They not unlike Mutual Fund managers must provide cash to their customers when asked to redeem their positions. So is it this selfish action that is creating more weakness in the markets in the last few months? How dare they take more $$$ out of our market when it is already too low! They have no choice and there is more to come.

Historically, it takes years to get to a market top. It only takes a few months to make those peaks vanish. Let's place blame closer to the WS crew who single handedly brought the world to a financial collapse on a high risk bet that crap mortgages would survive and not onto large and small investors who were attempting to make money on the impending downside of financials and commodities.

And some of us were concerned about terrorism? This is much worse.