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windeo

windeo
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  • Pandora higher after gaining listeners and market share in Nov. [View news story]
    Well, I expected listener numbers to be stagnant for November, but it looks pretty good. Good job, Pandora!
    Dec 4, 2013. 09:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora surges following JPMorgan note, hedge fund disclosures [View news story]
    Buying or short-covering from these upgrades is foolish, since J.P. Morgan and Needham are both underwriters of Pandora's latest offering. Earnings next week making some shorts queazy (and rightfully so), but I'd be cautious taking any "upgrade" advice from the following institutions:

    "The bookrunning managers of the proposed offering will be J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley. Wells Fargo Securities, BofA Merrill Lynch, BMO Capital Markets, Canaccord Genuity, Needham & Company, Pacific Crest Securities, Piper Jaffray and William Blair will act as co-managers."
    Nov 15, 2013. 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora's October Metrics Confirm Negative Trends [View article]
    You seem to be putting a lot of faith in cars as being an expansion point for Pandora. You do realize that most of those listeners already have a smartphone that they've probably been listening to while riding in their cars, right? Others will want things like traffic updates, local radio show personalities, and the like. Putting such stock into car radio being the catalyst for growth is rather foolish.

    Also, it's tremendously foolish to think iTR is finished eating away at Pandora's listener base. Active listeners will only continue to go down with the over saturated internet radio space.
    Nov 7, 2013. 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simple Math Proves Pandora's Doomed [View article]
    Interesting that you mention NFLX, because I also shorted it from about $160 down to $67. Then played it back on the rise. The difference, in my opinion, between NFLX and P is that NFLX is profitable and doesn't rely on advertising dollars to stay profitable. It has distinguished itself from the likes of Amazon Prime with original content, and it actually is leaps and bounds better than some of the services you mentioned (Redbox Instant, for example), while others in your list are not even direct competitors in my opinion.

    NFLX and P are very different companies, and when a company has to buy a terrestrial radio station to backdoor their way into securing cheaper rates to stay unprofitable, there's a problem with the business model. At any rate, we'll know soon enough with the October listener numbers. If growth stalls or shows any signs of weakness, I believe P will tumble.
    Oct 31, 2013. 09:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simple Math Proves Pandora's Doomed [View article]
    I don't think Pandora shorts think that at all. What they (I included) think is that iTR will take a nice chunk of listeners away from Pandora, and more importantly, take away a lot of the larger (national) advertiser dollars. iTR doesn't have to succeed for Apple, but it needs to fail for Pandora. And so does Spotify, Rdio, Rhapsody, Mog, Xbox Music, Slacker, Google Music (rumor is Youtube-based), Amazon's new service... see the problem for Pandora?

    That's why I'm short. There are just too many competitors to fend off, and while Pandora is a good service, it's not leaps and bounds better than any of the services I just listed. Tough to be profitable, which Pandora has failed thus far at achieving, and it will only get tougher.
    Oct 30, 2013. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simple Math Proves Pandora's Doomed [View article]
    Only? You used that word twice when talking about !! 40% !! and !! 20% !! of a listener base. Is there room in the sand for my head, too?
    Oct 30, 2013. 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simple Math Proves Pandora's Doomed [View article]
    Getting tired of the same 'ole seekingalpha articles (and this is coming from a Pandora short). October listener numbers will move this stock dramatically one way or the other; I'm hoping south. I've used iTunes Radio, and while I want to love it, it isn't as polished as Pandora. It's crashed a couple of times, isn't available to create new stations other times, and the UI is not intuitive (who thought a red star should be used to like a song?). If I weren't short on P, I'd be rooting for them.
    Oct 22, 2013. 09:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 More Reasons To Go Short Pandora [View article]
    Personally, I think October's listening numbers will send Pandora's stock into meltdown. If I were looking to buy P, I would definitely not do it until after those numbers are released. It would be a complete (losing) gamble to do it prior imho.
    Oct 11, 2013. 07:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Apple Just Pull The Plug On Pandora's Jukebox? [View article]
    While it'd be nice if they did that, it really isn't necessary for them to be a dominant player. What they have is good enough to make them dominant. There are certainly quirks with iTunes Radio, but it has pretty much everything Pandora has and then the additional bonuses like artist-created stations and new pre-releases that put it over the top. Content always trumps.
    Oct 11, 2013. 07:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 More Reasons To Go Short Pandora [View article]
    I'm also shorting Pandora because of the reasons you listed, but mainly because it is overvalued in a very crowded space that now includes an 800 lb Gorilla connected to the largest music store in the world. I see no way for Pandora to consistently grow subscribers and become profitable on its own. Once the valuation deflates, it would make an interesting buyout opportunity for someone like Amazon or Microsoft. Hopefully I'm out before then.

    With that said, I have both apps on my iPhone, and while iTunes Radio is very good, it still has quirks about it that aren't fully polished like Pandora. In time, in time.
    Oct 9, 2013. 12:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 More Reasons To Go Short Pandora [View article]
    "Our subscriber numbers dipped this month, mainly due to a sudden loss of 90 iPhones in ezonebroker's office switching to iTunes Radio." :-)
    Oct 9, 2013. 12:27 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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