mikeylikesit41's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/165611/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/118756-is-satyam-saved?source=feed#comment-377977 377977
Strong argument. I like it.

I would add that the stock is going slightly lower because the vulture speculators were looking for a quick hit profit from a sale of the company to a vulture company like L&T.

Also , the instutitions cannot buy more right now until the earnings are restated. Their bosses would have their arses if they put any real big money in this now. Sure, Fidelity and a few others have been buying but only with minor speculative money.

Wait til the earnings report back up your EBITDA guesstimate and we will see $6 to $7 easy.

]]> Fri, 06 Feb 2009 06:58:02 -0500
Strong argument. I like it.

I would add that the stock is going slightly lower because the vulture speculators were looking for a quick hit profit from a sale of the company to a vulture company like L&T.

Also , the instutitions cannot buy more right now until the earnings are restated. Their bosses would have their arses if they put any real big money in this now. Sure, Fidelity and a few others have been buying but only with minor speculative money.

Wait til the earnings report back up your EBITDA guesstimate and we will see $6 to $7 easy.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114343-trade-apple-like-a-fool?source=feed#comment-353573 353573
It's my opinion, that I base on a lot of data, that folks just aren't going to spend money on trinkets for a few years.

To answer your statement about being in a depression and their profits going up... well that's simple... look at the data! It's only within the last few months that folks realized they could lose their job too. It's only in the last few months that folks realized we are in a recession. It's only in the last few months that folks refi'ed their mortgage to better their monthly financial condition instead of for spending cash. The list goes on and on.

That was slightly interrupted by Christmas but only slightly. Even I spent a little more than I was planning this year. It's hard to spend less than you did the year before on gifts even if you are picking wise useful gifts.

Regardless, all the trends and data indicate less spending cash over the next two years.

Now, the question is, which companies do you think that will affect and what company will be affected the most?????

I would put AAPL in that group near the top.

So, simply extrapolate the price based on less profits and historical P/Es

]]> Mon, 12 Jan 2009 13:44:34 -0500
It's my opinion, that I base on a lot of data, that folks just aren't going to spend money on trinkets for a few years.

To answer your statement about being in a depression and their profits going up... well that's simple... look at the data! It's only within the last few months that folks realized they could lose their job too. It's only in the last few months that folks realized we are in a recession. It's only in the last few months that folks refi'ed their mortgage to better their monthly financial condition instead of for spending cash. The list goes on and on.

That was slightly interrupted by Christmas but only slightly. Even I spent a little more than I was planning this year. It's hard to spend less than you did the year before on gifts even if you are picking wise useful gifts.

Regardless, all the trends and data indicate less spending cash over the next two years.

Now, the question is, which companies do you think that will affect and what company will be affected the most?????

I would put AAPL in that group near the top.

So, simply extrapolate the price based on less profits and historical P/Es

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114343-trade-apple-like-a-fool?source=feed#comment-353155 353155
AAPL is an exceptional buy a $40. This is taking into account not only the current technicals but the decreased demand for high priced consumer products over the next 2 years.

Tech companies will survive but it is now ingrained in most Americans that paying $400 to $600 for the latest, greatest tech trinket is stupid. AAPL even helped them come to that conclusion when it was possible for them to quickly drop the price of an iPhone and still be amazingly profitable. Made everyone feel like chumps.

Regardless, most of the folks that can afford tech trinkets have them now. Now one is going to upgrade their kids iPod because of a few new features. Jim Cramer put it succinctly, iPods and iPhones are jewelry.

So, how many of you are planning a shopping trip to Tiffanys anytime soon?

Middle Class America is starting to save and think thru their purchases now. Expect profits over the next 2 years to be barely enough to cover operating expenses.

Once we recover and people feel secure again, gobble up AAPL like it's sugar 'cuz it's going to be sweet. That will be in 2011.

]]> Mon, 12 Jan 2009 09:08:04 -0500
AAPL is an exceptional buy a $40. This is taking into account not only the current technicals but the decreased demand for high priced consumer products over the next 2 years.

Tech companies will survive but it is now ingrained in most Americans that paying $400 to $600 for the latest, greatest tech trinket is stupid. AAPL even helped them come to that conclusion when it was possible for them to quickly drop the price of an iPhone and still be amazingly profitable. Made everyone feel like chumps.

Regardless, most of the folks that can afford tech trinkets have them now. Now one is going to upgrade their kids iPod because of a few new features. Jim Cramer put it succinctly, iPods and iPhones are jewelry.

So, how many of you are planning a shopping trip to Tiffanys anytime soon?

Middle Class America is starting to save and think thru their purchases now. Expect profits over the next 2 years to be barely enough to cover operating expenses.

Once we recover and people feel secure again, gobble up AAPL like it's sugar 'cuz it's going to be sweet. That will be in 2011.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112467-ben-stein-watch-december-28-2008?source=feed#comment-340363 340363
Ben was smart enough not to invest without researching. He listened to their sales pitch, asked questions and then went to the guys he trusted (from experience with them) to discuss it.

Finally, he decided that he needed more information, so he went to some other folks he met and discussed with them whether it's replicable. Madoff's pitch was really a technical anomoly and so it should be able to be replicated.

If it could be, then why share 2% with the 'bankers'. If it couldn't, then it was obviously a scam.

Kudo's to Ben to at least do the type of research and brain trust discussions before blindly investing his money.

]]> Mon, 29 Dec 2008 09:24:21 -0500
Ben was smart enough not to invest without researching. He listened to their sales pitch, asked questions and then went to the guys he trusted (from experience with them) to discuss it.

Finally, he decided that he needed more information, so he went to some other folks he met and discussed with them whether it's replicable. Madoff's pitch was really a technical anomoly and so it should be able to be replicated.

If it could be, then why share 2% with the 'bankers'. If it couldn't, then it was obviously a scam.

Kudo's to Ben to at least do the type of research and brain trust discussions before blindly investing his money.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91744-e-trade-financial-carries-high-risk-reward?source=feed#comment-234574 234574
I'm basing this on a few assumptions with some analysis of expected trading volumes and the mortgage crisis flattening out sometime in Dec-Jan.

1) The fear of E*Trade going bankrupt is gone from the investors mind. Maybe not totally, but it's suppressed at least.
2) The market has been volatile and trading volume goes up during those times.
3) While the housing crisis still has a little ways to go before bottoming out, I'm seeing houses in AZ, FL and CA that are now in a price range I'd be comfortable with purchasing. I spent some time traveling since Jan and I've been monitoring prices. The homes in Phoenix that I wanted to buy were still too high in May but are now around the sweet spot of $85/sq ft.
4) As more folks realize what they have to sell their homes for (or not move), all prices will be in the sweet spot instead of huge variations within neighborhoods.
5) Purchases will begin to pick up with no price increases for the next 2 years at that time.
6) The global economy is suffering now. Inflation is on the rise. I figured out that the fed wanted that to happen last November. I think my exact statement was " the fed is going to inflate our way out. That way folks can sell their house for a decent price that psychologically makes them happy even though based on inflation, they lost a lot more then they know"..

All of that will help E*trade reduce more losses and increase income.

Please keep in mind, based on the math, there is now way this stock will be worth more than $6 for a loooong time.

For now though, keep selling your shares, I'll keep buying the heavy dips and make a nice killing next year.

Thanks]]> Wed, 20 Aug 2008 07:48:59 -0400
I'm basing this on a few assumptions with some analysis of expected trading volumes and the mortgage crisis flattening out sometime in Dec-Jan.

1) The fear of E*Trade going bankrupt is gone from the investors mind. Maybe not totally, but it's suppressed at least.
2) The market has been volatile and trading volume goes up during those times.
3) While the housing crisis still has a little ways to go before bottoming out, I'm seeing houses in AZ, FL and CA that are now in a price range I'd be comfortable with purchasing. I spent some time traveling since Jan and I've been monitoring prices. The homes in Phoenix that I wanted to buy were still too high in May but are now around the sweet spot of $85/sq ft.
4) As more folks realize what they have to sell their homes for (or not move), all prices will be in the sweet spot instead of huge variations within neighborhoods.
5) Purchases will begin to pick up with no price increases for the next 2 years at that time.
6) The global economy is suffering now. Inflation is on the rise. I figured out that the fed wanted that to happen last November. I think my exact statement was " the fed is going to inflate our way out. That way folks can sell their house for a decent price that psychologically makes them happy even though based on inflation, they lost a lot more then they know"..

All of that will help E*trade reduce more losses and increase income.

Please keep in mind, based on the math, there is now way this stock will be worth more than $6 for a loooong time.

For now though, keep selling your shares, I'll keep buying the heavy dips and make a nice killing next year.

Thanks]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79533-what-recession-disposable-income-grows?source=feed#comment-176771 176771
Wow. So, this is actually proof that inflation is finally sinking into the economy.

Income is still not keeping up with inflation but at least wages rose for the first month in a bit instead of going down month after month.

So, let's see.

It costs twice as much for a gallon of milk which chewed up some of my income that I could not then save. Saving rate goes down. Duh.

Hey, my boss finally raised his prices and can afford to give me another $.10/hr. I can finally save that extra $5/wk after gas, milk etc again. You know, like I used to do years ago. Savings rate goes up! Duh.

Let's see a steady trend of rising wages before we get excited. Let's also hope they don't rise too much or you'll see unemployment claims skyrocket and more foreclosures.

Do I need to even mention all the mid-level managers who will be unhappy with their forced second careers making half as much while their expenses stay the same or go up?

We saw this all before... look back to the 80's to see the outcome of the '70s.


]]> Fri, 30 May 2008 11:54:28 -0400
Wow. So, this is actually proof that inflation is finally sinking into the economy.

Income is still not keeping up with inflation but at least wages rose for the first month in a bit instead of going down month after month.

So, let's see.

It costs twice as much for a gallon of milk which chewed up some of my income that I could not then save. Saving rate goes down. Duh.

Hey, my boss finally raised his prices and can afford to give me another $.10/hr. I can finally save that extra $5/wk after gas, milk etc again. You know, like I used to do years ago. Savings rate goes up! Duh.

Let's see a steady trend of rising wages before we get excited. Let's also hope they don't rise too much or you'll see unemployment claims skyrocket and more foreclosures.

Do I need to even mention all the mid-level managers who will be unhappy with their forced second careers making half as much while their expenses stay the same or go up?

We saw this all before... look back to the 80's to see the outcome of the '70s.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79461-is-the-peak-oil-theory-valid?source=feed#comment-176677 176677 Fri, 30 May 2008 10:24:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79518-3-down-days-in-oil?source=feed#comment-176640 176640
I also want to roll those extra profits I'll make off the stock rise into my oil and commodity investments.

Shhhh! If you tell everyone, then none of us will make any money.

]]> Fri, 30 May 2008 09:51:02 -0400
I also want to roll those extra profits I'll make off the stock rise into my oil and commodity investments.

Shhhh! If you tell everyone, then none of us will make any money.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79332-why-is-oil-going-up?source=feed#comment-175850 175850
Did you ever think that when the dollar went up, that kept oil from going even higher.

The trend for oil has been up for years now. A rising dollar simply stalled the trend in place since it cost less dollars to import, refine, etc.

Now, if the supply also went up while the dollar went up and we still saw the price of oil go up... then there is a problem.

Nothing is black and white. Take all variables into account before you make such silly statements.

Better yet, take a statistics class so you understand what coorelation is.

]]> Thu, 29 May 2008 08:58:59 -0400
Did you ever think that when the dollar went up, that kept oil from going even higher.

The trend for oil has been up for years now. A rising dollar simply stalled the trend in place since it cost less dollars to import, refine, etc.

Now, if the supply also went up while the dollar went up and we still saw the price of oil go up... then there is a problem.

Nothing is black and white. Take all variables into account before you make such silly statements.

Better yet, take a statistics class so you understand what coorelation is.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78950-oil-manipulations-exposed?source=feed#comment-174546 174546
However, let's place the blame where it really needs to be. GREENSPAN. He is the one who robbed you of years of interest rates on your fixed income assets. From savings accounts to CDs, to... well you name it. He demolished your spending power by ensuring you couldn't keep up with inflation.

Simple question. When was the last prolonged time you saw a 6.5% CD being advertised?

Well? You could have briefly gotten a 5% about a year ago but before that... I can't even remember. It seems like about mid 90s or so.
]]> Tue, 27 May 2008 11:51:01 -0400
However, let's place the blame where it really needs to be. GREENSPAN. He is the one who robbed you of years of interest rates on your fixed income assets. From savings accounts to CDs, to... well you name it. He demolished your spending power by ensuring you couldn't keep up with inflation.

Simple question. When was the last prolonged time you saw a 6.5% CD being advertised?

Well? You could have briefly gotten a 5% about a year ago but before that... I can't even remember. It seems like about mid 90s or so.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78950-oil-manipulations-exposed?source=feed#comment-174540 174540
Let's say computer chips doubled in price... would you cry that Intel is playing unfair or invest in Intel???? Would that affect the price of computer equipment? YES... would that then affect all businesses expenses? YES.... would that then affect EVERYONE? YES.

What is your point?

If you want to bet against Oil going higher, then fine. Do it. But don't come to my house bumming change for a meal in 5 years when you are broke.

Be smart. Bet on higher oil. Short stocks that higher oil will have a negative impact on. etc etc.

It's called investing in a capital market...

]]> Tue, 27 May 2008 11:44:48 -0400
Let's say computer chips doubled in price... would you cry that Intel is playing unfair or invest in Intel???? Would that affect the price of computer equipment? YES... would that then affect all businesses expenses? YES.... would that then affect EVERYONE? YES.

What is your point?

If you want to bet against Oil going higher, then fine. Do it. But don't come to my house bumming change for a meal in 5 years when you are broke.

Be smart. Bet on higher oil. Short stocks that higher oil will have a negative impact on. etc etc.

It's called investing in a capital market...

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78950-oil-manipulations-exposed?source=feed#comment-174453 174453
Why does everyone complain about the price of something... Why not make money off of these 'bubbles'. If the idiots are going to bid up something to astronomical prices, figure out a relatively safe method for making money off the morons.

Heck, the price of oil can go up or down and I don't care. If it goes up, I make money. If it goes down, I make money elsewhere.

Quit fighting a rising tide.

A wise man stands on the side of the road, points in the direction of traffic and yells 'THAT WAY!'.

]]> Tue, 27 May 2008 10:13:28 -0400
Why does everyone complain about the price of something... Why not make money off of these 'bubbles'. If the idiots are going to bid up something to astronomical prices, figure out a relatively safe method for making money off the morons.

Heck, the price of oil can go up or down and I don't care. If it goes up, I make money. If it goes down, I make money elsewhere.

Quit fighting a rising tide.

A wise man stands on the side of the road, points in the direction of traffic and yells 'THAT WAY!'.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/74551-are-homebuilders-a-buy?source=feed#comment-158494 158494
I bought right before the bubble because I saw the fundamentals shifting. I was renting at the time and it started to be a no-brainer to buy. That was at the end of 2000.

I sold that place in 2005 at the peak. Everyone told me I should rent it out when I move but I did the fundamentals again and said 'no way, it can only go down from here'. I peaked the market in my old neighborhood in MD and it has gone down from there after a brief stagnating of price.

Before that happened, I bought my upgrade house 40 miles away where there was a booming economy but the housing prices had not caught up yet. That was in 2003.

That's just the short history, I won't bore you with the 1990's. I did pretty well in that market also.

So, here is where I'm sitting today.

Doubled my money on the home bought in 2000.
Still up 10% on my current home even with the drop in prices (my neighbors aren't so lucky).
Looking for a home in AZ and you can read my analysis in my previous comment.

When you see home prices stagnate for a good 6 months, that is when the bottom has hit.

Check the local tax office for sales prices and do some leg work. Then relax and don't jump at the first deal. Monitor the area. You will see that the pundits calling for more housing price drops are correct.

Again, wait til you see prices stagnate for at least 6 months before calling a bottom.

Also, don't buy just because of a 'bottom'. Sit around and do the math. Does it make sense to buy a home vs rent.

If it doesn't, then the builders will have a longer flat price on their homes and their stock.

Only when it makes sense to buy a home again will the builders be ready to rally for another 5 years and you'll make money.

'nuf said.]]> Tue, 29 Apr 2008 08:24:14 -0400
I bought right before the bubble because I saw the fundamentals shifting. I was renting at the time and it started to be a no-brainer to buy. That was at the end of 2000.

I sold that place in 2005 at the peak. Everyone told me I should rent it out when I move but I did the fundamentals again and said 'no way, it can only go down from here'. I peaked the market in my old neighborhood in MD and it has gone down from there after a brief stagnating of price.

Before that happened, I bought my upgrade house 40 miles away where there was a booming economy but the housing prices had not caught up yet. That was in 2003.

That's just the short history, I won't bore you with the 1990's. I did pretty well in that market also.

So, here is where I'm sitting today.

Doubled my money on the home bought in 2000.
Still up 10% on my current home even with the drop in prices (my neighbors aren't so lucky).
Looking for a home in AZ and you can read my analysis in my previous comment.

When you see home prices stagnate for a good 6 months, that is when the bottom has hit.

Check the local tax office for sales prices and do some leg work. Then relax and don't jump at the first deal. Monitor the area. You will see that the pundits calling for more housing price drops are correct.

Again, wait til you see prices stagnate for at least 6 months before calling a bottom.

Also, don't buy just because of a 'bottom'. Sit around and do the math. Does it make sense to buy a home vs rent.

If it doesn't, then the builders will have a longer flat price on their homes and their stock.

Only when it makes sense to buy a home again will the builders be ready to rally for another 5 years and you'll make money.

'nuf said.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/74551-are-homebuilders-a-buy?source=feed#comment-158475 158475
My wife wants to move to Arizona and we started looking a few months ago. We even took a 4 day weekend and went down there to do 'leg' work research.

My conclusion is that any home you may find is still about 20% overpriced. This includes the recent price drops by the builders in the last 2 weeks.

Right now I could buy a $530k home (early 2007) for $360k and the fundamentals still don't support it for the area.

People are losing their construction jobs, the economy is leveraged on those jobs, the prices doubled and tripled in 5 years time, the average Joe still can't afford a 'family' home, they overbuilt and taxes are increasing to support new planned infrastructure, etc.

Don't get me wrong, you can still find a few areas around Phoenix that are new construction and cheap. Just make sure to walk to your car with your .38 loaded so you don't get mugged. Oh, let's not even mention the rabies outbreak in Florence that they have been battling.

Lastly, even the good areas are being invaded by folks who are financing with 5 people on the mortgage. They think they are taking advantage of good prices but in reality they are helping depreciate the areas.

I'm sure the same is true of Nevada and California.

Buyer beware... Housing will take at least 3 years to stabilize even if the credit crisis is fixed tomorrow.

]]> Tue, 29 Apr 2008 07:45:38 -0400
My wife wants to move to Arizona and we started looking a few months ago. We even took a 4 day weekend and went down there to do 'leg' work research.

My conclusion is that any home you may find is still about 20% overpriced. This includes the recent price drops by the builders in the last 2 weeks.

Right now I could buy a $530k home (early 2007) for $360k and the fundamentals still don't support it for the area.

People are losing their construction jobs, the economy is leveraged on those jobs, the prices doubled and tripled in 5 years time, the average Joe still can't afford a 'family' home, they overbuilt and taxes are increasing to support new planned infrastructure, etc.

Don't get me wrong, you can still find a few areas around Phoenix that are new construction and cheap. Just make sure to walk to your car with your .38 loaded so you don't get mugged. Oh, let's not even mention the rabies outbreak in Florence that they have been battling.

Lastly, even the good areas are being invaded by folks who are financing with 5 people on the mortgage. They think they are taking advantage of good prices but in reality they are helping depreciate the areas.

I'm sure the same is true of Nevada and California.

Buyer beware... Housing will take at least 3 years to stabilize even if the credit crisis is fixed tomorrow.

]]>