mikeylikesit41

Trade Apple Like a Fool

Infinite Loop, I'm not guessing. I ran an analysis of the stocks price history, current consumer trends, grabbed some data about savings rate increases, income, housing trends and then projected a national average spending rate. So, yea a little tiny bit of guessing based on historical rates.

It's my opinion, that I base on a lot of data, that folks just aren't going to spend money on trinkets for a few years.

To answer your statement about being in a depression and their profits going up... well that's simple... look at the data! It's only within the last few months that folks realized they could lose their job too. It's only in the last few months that folks realized we are in a recession. It's only in the last few months that folks refi'ed their mortgage to better their monthly financial condition instead of for spending cash. The list goes on and on.

That was slightly interrupted by Christmas but only slightly. Even I spent a little more than I was planning this year. It's hard to spend less than you did the year before on gifts even if you are picking wise useful gifts.

Regardless, all the trends and data indicate less spending cash over the next two years.

Now, the question is, which companies do you think that will affect and what company will be affected the most?????

I would put AAPL in that group near the top.

So, simply extrapolate the price based on less profits and historical P/Es

Trade Apple Like a Fool

AAPL is going to 400 next month. There I figured I'd be the first idiot.

AAPL is an exceptional buy a $40. This is taking into account not only the current technicals but the decreased demand for high priced consumer products over the next 2 years.

Tech companies will survive but it is now ingrained in most Americans that paying $400 to $600 for the latest, greatest tech trinket is stupid. AAPL even helped them come to that conclusion when it was possible for them to quickly drop the price of an iPhone and still be amazingly profitable. Made everyone feel like chumps.

Regardless, most of the folks that can afford tech trinkets have them now. Now one is going to upgrade their kids iPod because of a few new features. Jim Cramer put it succinctly, iPods and iPhones are jewelry.

So, how many of you are planning a shopping trip to Tiffanys anytime soon?

Middle Class America is starting to save and think thru their purchases now. Expect profits over the next 2 years to be barely enough to cover operating expenses.

Once we recover and people feel secure again, gobble up AAPL like it's sugar 'cuz it's going to be sweet. That will be in 2011.