JREwing

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    • Thu May 15th 06:26 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What’s Driving Oil Higher? It’s the Dollar, Stupid!
      CLH

      If I remember the 70s correctly, the Mainland Chinese rode bicycles, Indians drove scooters and Brazilians were busy dancing samba.

      The story back then was an attempt by the OPEC nations (no doubt motivated by the Sowjets, since none of the OPEC nations ever gave a damn about the Palestinians) to blackmail the West. An abrupt shortage of oil led to economic chaos in the west, since oil determines the price of everything, back then even more than now.

      That's a little different than 25 years of underinvestment in the oil business and tremendous physical demand from emerging nations.

      Do your homework, Sir.
      View article »
    • Thu May 15th 04:23 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Commodities: Bubble or Not?
      Xyrus

      Excuse me, fella. Since I am a German I know a little bit about Hitlers rise to power.

      Journalists, who disagreed with the Nazi parties views were 'convinced' otherwise. As long as there was a parliament in place, the SA (a gathering of urban street thugs) prevented all MPs, who were likely to oppose the Nazi party, from entering the parliament.

      After this 'parliament' gave Hitler absolute power, there was essentially only one newspaper, only one radio channel, only one party and everyone, who opposed Hitler was imprisoned and/or executed.

      Excuse me again. But none of the above happened during the Bush administration. I guess, that about 90 out of a 100 journalists in the US share an intense hatred for Mr. Bush and criticize him on a daily basis. Of course they are well within their to do so and no one prevents them from exercising their rights.

      So don't You ever compare Mr. Bush to Adolf Hitler, for You do not know what You are talking about. If You had to live under the rule of the Nazi Party, you would pray on your knees for a live under the Bush Administration.


      View article »
    • Wed May 14th 15:21 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil to $200? Fundamentals Don't Support It
      Just read in the WSJ.com, that the ministry of interior declared the polar bear an endangered species, making almost impossible to drill in ANWR.

      Guess we're a little bit closer to 200$ a barrel.
      View article »
    • Wed May 14th 12:03 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The New Peak Oil: Peak Demand
      I am totally on board with the deepwater thing. I am far less sceptic about that, than the public seems to be.

      I have positions in RIG, NE, PBR for almost 3 years.
      View article »
    • Wed May 14th 12:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The New Peak Oil: Peak Demand
      Ethanol is ridiculous.

      First: Yes I know, ethanol from sugar cane makes more sense, then ethanol from corn, but please what do you do, when there is a drought for 3 years in such a region, what do you do, when there is an invasion of parasites (wouldn't be the first monoculture to be annihilated), what do you, if a serious of storms devastate the crop? Do you leave your car in the garage for on season?

      Second: How do you justify, that in some countries people fight over food in the streets and we burn it?
      View article »
    • Wed May 14th 11:21 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The New Peak Oil: Peak Demand
      First: New oil won't be discovered, with cheap oil.

      Second: Does it makes sense to chop down the Amazon in order to burn sugar??

      Looks to me, that this is ecologically unsound.

      Check out this link:

      www.reuters.com/articl...
      View article »
    • Wed May 14th 09:09 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil to $200? Fundamentals Don't Support It
      Lack of shorts

      I think one reason oil is so resilient is, that one has to have a lot of guts to short oil. Every time a shot is fired in the Straits of Hormuz, Chavez hooking up with the chinese, someone gets killed in Lebanon oil goes through the roof. You gotta be kamikaze to go short, even if you thought the fundamentals would justify a decline in price.

      May be that's one reason Nat Gas underperformed oil since Katrina. The only risk to Nat Gas is the Hurricane season.
      View article »
    • Wed May 14th 08:57 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The New Peak Oil: Peak Demand
      No, I am just a small investor, who reads a lot about the oil business.
      View article »
    • Wed May 14th 08:38 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The New Peak Oil: Peak Demand
      Eric

      I didn't call you a communist, because of the demand destruction thing. I called you a communist, because of the SPR interventionist thing.
      View article »
    • Wed May 14th 08:07 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What’s Driving Oil Higher? It’s the Dollar, Stupid!
      If interest rates were impacting exchange rates, the dollar would have outperformed the Euro until the Fed started to cut.
      View article »
    • Wed May 14th 07:48 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil to $200? Fundamentals Don't Support It
      Eric

      One cannot compare a stock to oil or any commodity for that matter. Simply impossible.

      While I agree, that things are a bit crazy in the pits, I stick to my opinion, that a long term uptrend in oil is justified.
      View article »
    • Wed May 14th 06:56 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The New Peak Oil: Peak Demand
      An improvement over the last article.

      While it is true, that THANKS to higher oil prices there have been significant new discoveries, the author seems to neglect the fact, that existing fields are being depleted while new production comes online. Methods to enhance daily output on existing fields also accelerates their depletion rate.

      Oil prices only will come down under following conditions:

      1. A worldwide recession.(In which case I want to be short of everything, not just oil)

      2. Petrol products are no longer the primary source for transportation fuels. (I guess that is gonna take some time)

      3. The end of the world. (In that case I don't care if I am long or short of anything)

      Lastly, I said in another post, that low prices will kill low prices. 75$ oil will make difficult production unprofitable. Oil companies won't eat that loss.
      View article »
    • Wed May 14th 06:26 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What’s Driving Oil Higher? It’s the Dollar, Stupid!
      To say, that the rise in oil prices is purely a reaction to the falling dollar is simplistic and it's really getting old.

      The most recent records in oil were not accompanied by new record lows of the dollar.

      If anything it is much more likely, that the opposite is true. High oil prices cause the trade gap to widen and then weaken the dollar.

      The EURO is a bubble. Some one should tell the FX market, that they have lots of private and public deficits and they have a negative trade balance, too. And they import virtually all their oil, since North Sea oil is mostly british and norwegian.

      P.S. I really don't get the author's thoughts on inflation. I always thought, that a rise in prices SHOWS inflation and not that inflation CAUSES a rise in prices.
      View article »
    • Wed May 14th 03:27 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil to $200? Fundamentals Don't Support It
      Commodity Bubble Proponent

      Iran has sitting tankers full of crude sitting off their coast, because it is the height of asian maintenance season. Iran, which has very low quality crude is dependent on the asian market (most of all Japan), because there are a lot of refineries in asia capable of processing that sort of crude. Once the maintenance season there is over those tankers will sail eastward. BTW Iran is losing production for decades, since they peaked in the 70s. they are not cutting back, they get cut back.(Another perfect example of underinvestment.)

      Once again you make the mistake of poring all sorts of oil into one barrel. NYMEX LIGHT SWEET CRUDE is a basket of low gravity low sulfur crudes. These sorts of crude are rare.(North America, North Sea, Nigeria)
      When You'd take a look, not only at he overall inventory, but especially at Cushing, OK (the bellwether for NYMEX LIGHT SWEET CRUDE) inventories are a lot lower, than last year.( last year this time: 27.7 million, this year: 20.2 million barrels)

      And, yes in cases, where there is too much of a sort of crude, yes they cut prices. Like the Saudis for their bad stuff.(But there aren't a lot of refineries in the US, that can process the 'Bad Stuff')

      Or in other words, there could be a sea of crude out there, if it is the wrong kind of crude, no one gives a hoot in hell.

      HINT: If you get your information from the communist parties very own 'The Guardian', you devalue your arguments before you even made it.

      And a little business 101:

      There is not a whole lot of cash generated by an unprofitable field. Just a thought.

      You are obviously one of those people, who are franticly looking for the passage in the bible, where it says that gas ought to be for free. Oh I found it:

      Gasjunkie 13,1: Gas should be for free, because the archangel 'of last century V8 engine technology' said so.

      Hope I could help.
      View article »
    • Tue May 13th 17:16 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil to $200? Fundamentals Don't Support It
      Eric thanx for your response.

      I pull the 'Karl Marx' thing then, since you voted for Reagan. May be I got a little carried away.
      View article »
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