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Gumby

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  • Outlook For Alcoa's Primary Aluminum Business [View article]
    Speculators are hoarding up all available aluminium they can get hands on and bury them until prices go up much higher. As long as speculators are allowed to hoard them up, they encourage marginal producers to keep going ... I am still not clear about what the end game will be like... Will many producers shut down for good once demand wanes then speculators with tens of millons tons start selling them outside LME inventories ?
    There is no knowing or telling how many millons of tons are already stashed away in unknown places.. could be tens of millons already!
    Sep 4, 2015. 03:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Now Is The Time For Investors To Consider Positions In Natural Gas [View article]
    Betting on natural gas can only be successful on freak weather patterns.. Otherwisely, producers will produce without profit if needed to. Producers don't really care about future traders as they need to keep paying to workers to keep them handy around without having to call them back from home .. as needed.
    Sep 3, 2015. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Does Alcoa Stand After A Very Difficult Year? [View article]
    Warren Buffett's acquisition of Precison Castparts made me wonder how much competition Alcoa will face . Is it a good thing or what? Will Precision Casparts start taking lunch from Alcoa and even its recently acquired threesome. ? it is worrisome..
    Sep 3, 2015. 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Does Alcoa Stand After A Very Difficult Year? [View article]
    Is anyone aware that there is such ETFs on aluminium? They are JJU and FOIL. That is for anyone who likes to bet on aluminium futures. Actually LME aluminium is no longer relevant in the whole scheme of things as traders are moving ingots out of LME warehouses and bury them forever! Depressed aluminium prices were fashioned to help shore up the industrial heavyweights who consumes vast amounts of cheap aluminium to help make their balance sheets look good to investment institutions.. Those big boys just look at Alcoa as , well, nobody.. This is what really screw Alcoa.. The fair price for aluminium ought to be around $2 or so, but China is gladly overproducing aluminium as a return of favor to the free world for the privilege to gain access to copper in the free world which is scarce in China.. Back stratching and strange bedfellows.. Alcoa shareholders can simply be wiped out.. (hic).. so Alcoa shareholders have to figure out ways to make sure that Alcoa management do everything possible to avoid almost certain bankruptcy... I appauld Klaus Kleinfeld for even moving so slowly toward downstream operations ... Alcoa had shut down much of the previous downstream operations apart from aerospace and letting go almost half of its workforce more than a decade ago.. I guess that Alcoa is building itself back and I can only hope that Alcoa will pull through successfully without any need for bankruptcy proceedings which is still likely despite improved ratings by the accounting firms.. Alcoa used to be rated A plus now it is still in the B rating. With raw aluminium prices falling again, I cannot help but wonder whether the ratings will take another nose dive or not. Anyone who has boilerplate under his stomach will still find the boilerplate rusting away.. I am still watching Alcoa to see how Alcoa is making progress back to its greatness. It would be wonderful if Alcoa can retake Alcan back from Rio Tinto which had no business running one .. I just never understood why Rio Tinto had to overbid over Alcoa's head for Alcan by a margin of 15 billion. Rio Tinto is still suffering from indigestion ever since.. Alcoa together with Alcan can hold off anybody including the coolies!
    Sep 3, 2015. 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Does Alcoa Stand After A Very Difficult Year? [View article]
    Alcoa's smelting division is mostly powered with hydropower , in case , you don't know under long term contracts with power providers. Unlike China where all of its smelters are powered with coal powerplants. now will someone tell China to quit using coal ?
    Sep 2, 2015. 11:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors May Not Want To Follow Carl Icahn Into Freeport-McMoRan [View article]
    you probably need to know a little history.. FCX bought Phelps Dodge which bought Cyprus Minerals which bought Amax . OK, Right after FCX bought PD , copper prices shot up to $5 a pound from less than $1 literally overnight, thanks to China swallowing up all copper it can get its sight on. My opinion was that China was allowed access to copper mined out of Chile the world's biggest copper producer because China was not self sufficient . So, in return, China probably agreed to build so many new aluminium smelters with new coal fired powerplants in tow to power the smelters . China aluminium production shot to over 35 mt from merely over 10 mt in a span of a decade or so. Copper prices had been languishing of lately , but it is still a valuable metal due to severely limited access to copper around the world. It may be increased but not likely to result in overproduction of copper anytime. Northern Dynasty is trying to develop Pebble mine which is a large copper /gold /moly resource, but is being interfered by salmon fishermen and EPA for now. I believe that Northern Dynasty will pull through but at greatly reduced size of resource as little as one quarter of the original envisioned size. I hope I explain why aluminum and copper prices just diverged widely during past decade. I predict that China will eventually shut down many mts of aluminium smelter capacity that may halve its capacity in the coming years because they are so energy intensive that coal cannot be justified as a fuel for that in light of global climate issues. Why environmentalists continue to ignore new coal powerplants being built in China while preaching global climate change to Americans here, I will never be able to make sense out of... China is already consuming almost five times as much coal as America does today.. So, any of you who may not want to follow Icahn with FCX, you may find better odds on aluminium plays in terms of higher aluminium prices.. You can laugh at me if you want to..... I predict aluminium will rise over $2 a pound before too long because of energy costs . It makes very little sense to expend so much energy to produce aluminium that fetch only 70 cents today.. If you are not interested, sure thing, stay home then.
    Aug 30, 2015. 02:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa And The Yuan Devaluation [View article]
    China will stop rebates on fake semis then shut down inefficient smelters.. Chalco is not going to accept those govt owned smelters from China . China is seeing the light now and it will have to take a while to finally own up to it.. Speculators are making million tons of aluminium disappear forever .. to the frustrations of industrial consumers who hoped that they will always have access to ultra cheap aluminium forever.. No sir, they are fast disappear into black warehouses outside LME controls.. China may as well export garbage ..the way I see ... China has to build new smelters to replace old ones but was just too slow to shut the old ones down due to uncertainities about supply and demand scenes.. as if China is fearful about shutting down them too soon. China will shut down a lot of them and the prices will soar! where it always belong for past decades since! Free ride is over !
    Aug 29, 2015. 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big oil companies face prospect of reduced refining profits [View news story]
    It is entirely up to people to regulate the refiners through responsible consumption with minimal waste ... like making needless trips to stores .. etc.. Big Oil are vertically integrated so they are able to manipulate any price to fit their own bill and to heck to consumers.. Our only recourse is to reduce gasoline consumption until they stop drilling and produce too much needless oil .. Anyone who doesn't care about responsible gasoline consumption is no friend of mine... They can go to hell
    Aug 28, 2015. 08:23 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa: Don't Own It [View article]
    To any of you who fantasize about Alcoa shedding its upstream operations, you please Shut the F mouth up!
    you are senseless!!
    I am stopping you cold standing here .. don't get around me , I will never allow you to do so!
    you are thinking this way as a way to benefit other aluminium consuming stocks that you own shares .. you have yourselves a conflict of interest. so you have to make your choices...Alcoa or them.. not both!
    I don't need to spell out the names of stocks that consumes a lot of aluminium as you know what they are... Those stocks are way overpriced so you want them to go even higher ... you are just manipulators!!! you are depending on greater fools to keep buying them even higher without knowing when to sell. This is precisely what you want for yourselves.. but you just cannot push Alcoa down .. for that.. You just cannot, period! You are just plain betraying cheaters!
    Aug 28, 2015. 05:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa: Don't Own It [View article]
    I just read that China government is seeking to unload its aluminium assets on back of Chinalco that will push it to a 7 millon ton giant.. I doubt that Chinalco will want the inefficient smelters at all. My bet is that they will be shut down for good. it is just that those smelters has to stop screwing around their stakeholders with constant mindless losses.. Alcoa had shut down its fair share which is already 1MT or 25% of its total.. Now it is the global producers' turn to shut down their 25% as well which can easily come to 15mt off the table .. this should put the supply and demand back in balance and prices going up past $2. I am not paying any attention to any future downstream news as long as upstream prices stay too low. I am not listening to anyone who suggest that Alcoa can unload its upstream operations.. Aluminium prices has nowhere to go but UP!!! as in UPSTREAM, PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Also, I am not as concerned about potential metal thievery that might arise as aluminium prices go up . I am not going to allow anyone to place any blame on my shoulders for that if any.. They can solve this with scrap dealers through regulations and control of procurements as such.. Just don't lay any BS on my shoulders! I can suggest that authorities put more screws on aluminium highway signs so to make it longer for thieves to rip the sheets off for scrap sales.. Or to spray gunk coating on back of the signs to make them unsalvageable .. as scrap dealers will require sellers to scrap the gunk coatings off the back of sign sheets.. There are ways we can do to foil those thieves.. and this is their problem not mine... My problem is to produce new aluminium at fair prices not 67 cents a pound!
    Aug 28, 2015. 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa: Don't Own It [View article]
    How so cute of you!
    Aug 28, 2015. 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa: Don't Own It [View article]
    well a possible reason is that aluminium is increasingly used in clean energy projects.. you should see that solar panels are framed in aluminium and bolted to aluminium rails , etc. Probably the feeder lines are aluminium buried in ground and hooked up to powerlines. So the clean energy guys has a special interest in overproduction of aluminium to keep prices low to help clean energy become more competitive . Big Oil responded with overproduction in bids to suppress the rapid growth of clean energy with phony assistance from OPEC 's refusal to cut down production. We have a oil flood now.. If this is true, then many producers will realize that they have no choice but to shut down their smelters because clean energy projects probably will not be multiplying as fast as hoped for. I think we will hear more about postponements of major solar energy projects by the locals in the coming months and years as long as oil prices are artificially low . Solar energy is a growing threat to fossil fuel industries all around the globe. So aluminum is a victim of clean energy slowdown?
    Aug 28, 2015. 05:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa: Don't Own It [View article]
    Higher prices for raw aluminium is still needed and China has to stop overproducing . that is the bottom line!
    it is so obvious to me that the world aluminium consumers asked China to go on a smelter binge that brought 35 mt capacity which is out of whack! Once aluminium is made from stratch, it will be recycled for next millennium so this is what is so valuable about aluminium. Yet we cannot get a lousy $2 for a pound, c'mon!
    Novelis from India is here competing with Alcoa here in America. Novelis even jump in car sheet aluminium , too. so Alcoa faces way too much competition to be able to earn a decent dime at all. It is an overkill or what? Same thing had happened to copper, moly, etc. now they went up a lot in prices. But aluminium stays stuck in the mud for past 50 years. We expend way too much energy to produce way too much aluminium which gets climate change even worse than ever.
    China imported a lot of copper to build coal fired powerplants they need to keep the binge of building new smelters at full blast. Seems to me that China is finally winding down . now I wonder if the demand will still hold long enough to absorb the excess inventories.
    Speculators had hoarded million tons of the metal in black warehouses never to be seen again until they can get $3 or more for a pound. All the good the excess production did for the global consumers who started it all . LME big wigs realized their mistake and changed rules but it was too late... LME inventories are falling down because speculators are no longer members of LME anymore .. They just moved elsewhere and never seen again. How bad that gets, I couldn't care any less as long as the price is too low for aluminium! I believe that speculators are taking advantage of the very stupidness on behalf of the producers themselves.. Who is to say that you cannot hoard raw aluminium for decades to come? like any other metals, you can bury metals forever ..if the prices are jokes!1
    Aug 28, 2015. 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil rig count inches higher, overall count slips by 8 [View news story]
    Oil prices has to come down simply because fat cats don't want to pay more to low wage workers who need to buy gasoline to drive or ride public to work and back home. This is the whole story. Public transporation increase prices for tickets largely from gasoline prices. So low oil prices simply help postpone the need to increase public ride tickets a little longer. Once workers get pay increases, then oil prices will follow as surely as it gets..
    Aug 28, 2015. 03:07 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil continues surge; gold on the move as well [View news story]
    We simply don't know how to get our economy growing with more job creation without undue dependence on increased oil output. so OPEC and Big Oil started dumping oil on top of our heads in hopes to spur job creation... We wreak unnecessary environmental damage .. The state of mentality still prevailing in heads of those oil cowboys and sheiks has to be washed away to allow more clean energy . Those oil tar sands up there in Alberta is already environmentally damaged with scores of Caterpillars crawling around.. Feel free to drive up there and see for yourselves.. or check internet for latest pics... images.. Most of you wont, anyway..
    Aug 28, 2015. 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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