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Gumby

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  • Alcoa: Yet Another Lackluster Year [View article]
    with global climate change accelerating, it is fast becoming no brainer for enviros to get more aggressive with coal powered smelters around the world including China. it is utterly NO BRAINER!!!!!!!!!
    May 21, 2015. 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa: Yet Another Lackluster Year [View article]
    Aluminium prices are falling currently primarily because the warehouses are being shoved by LME to unload aluminium faster. Speculators are abusing low interest financings to foster oversupplies to the benefits of industrial users.. Marginal smelters are currently finding no buyers for their new ingots just made this week or last.. They are going to shut down before too long. China help hasten the fate of those one smelter one nation producers like Serbs, Greece, etc.. with temporary gaffe with tax credits for fake semis that are being remelted all over the world. I expect Alcoa to act similar to Indochina that banned export of raw bauxite more than a year ago. China is fast reeling now and China will be force to shut down more losers as they end up getting starved for bauxite alumina. Things can move so fast that will make heads spin! Everybody knows that aluminium is worth $2 but they could not care any less so this is the real trouble with them..!!
    May 21, 2015. 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa Is (Still) Lackluster [View article]
    Century is going to shut down at least one smelter because power talk is still going nowhere and with another one being locked out. Here is close to 500K tons in open question going forward. China is fast running out of bauxite if not alumina ,perhaps.. Alcoa's bauxite operations in Australia is going to cash in some and I hope that Alcoa will insist on adding alumina on top to maximize revenues.. I think China is very close to the end of its smelter build out and will eventuall start shutting down many losers as well for a net decline of several mt of smelting . With less than 4mt of inventories stashed away in warehouses which will last only a month , aluminium is actually getting tighter every month. Alcoa will run past analysts' projected price of $20 which is too low balled. Those ruffdogs around dontknow what they are talking about.. Aluminium prices will pass $2 a pound.
    May 21, 2015. 03:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa Is (Still) Lackluster [View article]
    In California, Gov Brown are screaming at cities and towns to conserve water because of drought but did little to farmers which consume 80% of the water. now Gov Brown is turning to farmers to do more. I can use similar metaphor here where environmentalists are screaming around here on coal powerplants which we shut down scores of them while the enviromentalists stayed mum on China's heavy dependence on coal to dump aluminium over our heads by millions of tons.. We don't care . So this really made asses out of environmentalists here which convince skeptics here to think that it is all hogwash all along. We are all running away from the real fundamentals of aluminum prices which belongs over $2 a pound a very long time ago. With warehouses opening the floodgates at insistinece of the LME authorities, this should hopefully convince many more money losing smelters to call it quit for good around the globe. I suspect that it is already happening and nobody is rushing to make this most important news for Alcoa . Alumiunium prices are going up before you are finished with your eye blinking..
    May 21, 2015. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa Is (Still) Lackluster [View article]
    Doyle, the only thing you are right about the bulls is that the bulls don't understand how important aluminium prices is.. They are touting Alcoa's downstream moves which is helpful . Raw aluminium remains the centerpiece of Alcoa's stock price . The real trouble with those AA bulls is that they are probably dipping toes in Coca Cola, Boeings, GE, Ford ,etc and are woefully for thinking that Alcoa can go far with 85 cents a pound for a long time to come. They are so cuss stupid for thinking that downstream operations is all is needed to pull the rabbit out of the hat.. Those bulls are still foxes watching chicken because they cannot wait after AA hit $20 before devouring the chickens.. I aim for AA at $50 or higher. So literally nobody is excited about $2 a pound because nobody wants it including the cuss stupid bulls here ..
    May 21, 2015. 03:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa Is (Still) Lackluster [View article]
    We are using so much coal that intensify global climate change in order to maintain below $1 a pound for aluminium. It is so impossible for any environmentalist to overlook this, but they all do.. it is madness or what? Warehouses are being pushed to let more aluminium out the doors at faster rates which should help convincing a few more smelters to quit making more. This should help hasten the cycle of falling production until all the losers are out of the picture. Inventories had fallen by 1 mt in past year or so which should help. It can fall other 1mt this year no matter how much more production are growing in China. I think that the losers are starting to quit faster than China can add more as time pass. Warehouses may be the key to the price of aluminium which Alcoa still depends on for the most degree. Alcoa downstream operations will take a couple years to show up in earnings. Like Alcoa said, "We cannot wait!" It can happen much sooner than we think. I think that upstream earnings will come much sooner than we think. Metal prices has a history of sudden movements out of blue. Aluminium prices has to go to $2 ,like it or not , and it will hit industrial users' earnings, of course.. You have to make choices.
    May 21, 2015. 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa Is (Still) Lackluster [View article]
    Ruff, how come Alcoa is not building any new low cost smelters to improve its margin? Maybe it plans to later. The reality is that prices is too depressed to justify any new smelters here in N America. Century is locking out union workers at one of its smelters. Another one is not reopened because of lack of power agreement. it can help Alcoa a little if Century shut down at least one smelter here. This will probably do wonders for aluminium prices here. Century wont be hurt as much with a shut down smelter as higher prices will help its other smelters as well. It helps to know that nobody is building any new smelters around here. Alcoa gave its share of a smelter to Century which probably enables Century to shut down another one without getting really hurt as much. It looks like aluminium supply is being tightened around here proactively. This is a good thing.. It wont make any difference to me whether the locked out union workers throw in the towel or being laid off permanently with the second smelter shut down for good. If Century actually shut down two smelters , this would give a good jolt to aluminium prices here. I suspect that either Century management or union workers will win and the smelter resumes which is still fine with me as long as another smelter of Century stay inoperable for lack of power agreement . The Century management seems to hint that the smelter without power is gone for good but they are still futilely hoping to get power one way or another. Environmentalists are bleating about coal pollution but remains silent as we are accepting aluminium coming from China that uses coal.
    May 21, 2015. 01:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa Is (Still) Lackluster [View article]
    It is China who spoils everything going for Alcoa. Why is it so necessary for China to explode itself with production in a short span of time? I can only suspect that trade reps between China and the rest of us made an agreement to allow China have access to copper in Chile and in return, China agreed to overproduce aluminium in order to depress aluminium prices that benefits the industrial consumers of the free world. Stakeholders in Alcoa are being left holding the bag.. Warehouses are suddenly set up to accept all aluminium at low interest financings to encourage producers to keep going full blast while making it look like it is helping Alcoa which is probably a half truth. Over half or the world's aluminium producers have no business continuing doing so. Aluminium is too heavily subsidized to sustain for much longer. While Alcoa's downstream adventures are constructive, the fact still remains that higher aluminium prices still counts for the most part of Alcoa's earnings for a long time to come. I suspect that Alcoa's bauxite operations will see better earnings as China is fast running out of supplies and I hope that Alcoa will start insisting that alumina be included as well. Every bit helps. Alcoa lost over 1mt in smelting capacity but it will matter less once prices go over $2 as supposedly. it will happen and everyone is all out to stall the inevitable.. for obvious reasons to make their bottom lines look a tad better..
    May 21, 2015. 01:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Noranda Aluminum - Buyout Candidate [View article]
    253 million tons? no, more like 253 thousand tons or 500 million POUNDS for the size like Noranda... China produces around 30 million tons or 60 billion POUNDS, this is a lot!
    May 18, 2015. 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North Dakota posts surprising jump in March oil output [View news story]
    Your gasoline tax is going to building the high speed train service from LA up to SF as signed by Gov Brown costing hundreds of billions. Thank you for your patronage..
    May 14, 2015. 06:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Still Consider Facebook A Value Play [View article]
    Wall Street has no problem finding $220 billion for Facebook alone while the US Govt or other levels of governments would love to have some , too. Look around yourselves... how much money is placed on margin to achieve Facebook market value? Don't you know that margin accounts are subject to short selling anytime they feel like it.. All you need is one puny lousy excuse to dump FB stock ..
    FB is a hell of a dynamic company , but its stock price is not necessarily solidly coupled to the former. it is like the tail waggin' the dog! Anytime, you will get wagged out!
    May 14, 2015. 06:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa - Stronger Than Steel [View article]
    aluminum 84 cents
    Lead 92 cents
    Zinc 107 cents
    May 14 2015 LME

    I am wiping my eyes and it is unbelievable!
    May 14, 2015. 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa Offers An Attractive Risk-Return [View article]
    You just cannot discuss risk for Alcoa as you should know very well that aluminium prices are being artificially suppressed by the heavyweight consumers through trade agreements set up by myopic trade representatives. it is like being behind ball 8. It is still there.. That is why so many smelters are still open for business with full knowledge that it is a huge joke when it comes to prices for aluminium which is not real.
    May 13, 2015. 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Give Alcoa A Chance, Will You? [View article]
    Give $2 a pound a chance is more like it..
    May 11, 2015. 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Give Alcoa A Chance, Will You? [View article]
    Cindie, you seem to think that 90 cents for aluminium is the norm these days. Cant you see that Alcoa has been tightening belts with productivity gains every year for as long as I can remember. This is a good thing . My point is that aluminium is worth more than 90 cents.. it is more like $2 a pound by now.. I am generous because I think it is more like $3 by now. Look at copper, nickel, moly, silver, gold, everything else going up many times over. You ought to ask yourself why China is adding millions of tons in new smelting capacity practically overnight? It is apparent to me that it has to do with those trade representatives between US and China as they stratched eachother's backs.. It looks like that China wants more copper that it cannot produce in the mainland so US allows China to buy copper from Chile , for instance.. in return, China seems to agree to build more new smelters in bid to depress aluminium prices to the delight of Coca Colas and Boeings of the world. What it boils down is that the costs of producing aluminium is already beyond break even for practically every smelter on this planet and nobody is caring.
    Alcoa is not being subsidized by Washington DC while China is subsidized by government and more coal powerplants which is a nightmare . yet environmentalists continue to look the other way while curling up in sofa reading novel books in front of blasting fireplaces.. The madness got to stop.. Yet, China goofs about the fake semi finished aluminium that china export to be remelted by GE, Boeing, Coca Cola of the world even with blessing of tax credits by China!!!! it clearly show that aluminium prices are being artificially depressed so desperately .. Klaus said himself that he thinks that the fake semis will be corrected which I hope so , quite frankly. why is everyone walking over the heads of aluminium stakeholders with blatant narcissism here? Get off my head!
    May 11, 2015. 12:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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