Dan Schmeidler

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    • Sat May 31st 13:01 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Long Case for Cheniere Energy
      One additional note to keep in mind. Souki Charif, current CEO of LNG, sold nearly 3 million company shares between April 15 and April 23 this year, netting well over $30 million on the sale. This type of insider trading undoubtedly contributes to the extremely negative outlook for the company as well as the depressed stock price. In addition to the awful balance sheet (see cash position, long term debt, negative equity, etc.) recently reported insider trading calls for stronger discipline and extreme caution when approaching this speculative play.
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    • Thu May 29th 16:40 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Long Case for Cheniere Energy
      $5 is a great entry point as a speculative play for this kind of stock. The only downside from here on forth is the company's ability to stay solvent. Long term debt maturity is not until 2010 and then again 2016. Any earnings considerations for this company would be exclusively to the upside (see above article). It is difficult to imagine that at the current price ($5) any earnings consideration for this company can be factored into a further downward move. This makes for a great and simplified speculative play: If the company stays solvent for the next year or two, the stock will move higher. This is a great alternative energy play, and a great speculative play, offered at a bargain price. I will buy this stock all the way down to $3.00. Any stock move lower than that, I would assume insolvency, and probably liquidate my position at a loss.
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    • Sat May 10th 12:53 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      'The Worst Is Over for Financials' - Really?
      I would hardly call this an article. But rather a short composition of various head-liners. Shame on you, Lazy-Grace (my nickname for you). Please don't ruin my "Seeking Alpha" experience with worthless articles.
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    • Wed May 7th 03:21 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why I Am Selling Precious Metals
      I would hold Gold here and not buy anymore from here on up. But I would seriously consider adding more Gold if its spot price would drop to around $800, and then more around $750 (if it ever gets there) and so on. I am certain that there will be a whole lot of other willing sellers of Gold at $800 (in the next few months). It is understandable considering how the markets expect currencies to strengthen, production to pick up and the US to come out of a recession by mid-year. Just in case it does not happen, I am adding to my Gold position. If it does happen, I would still hold on to Gold, unless the Fed Funds rate was to stay (well) above 5% or 6% for an extended period of time.
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    • Fri May 2nd 13:22 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold as an Investment? Think Again
      I just wanted to comment on the scarcity aspect of gold. Read this posting:

      www.howstuffworks.com/...
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    • Wed Apr 30th 14:17 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold, Oil, Potash and Food: Top Investments This Decade
      Also, the markets are seemingly guessing that a bottom reached in the "loosening" interest rate cycle, will soon imply future rate increases, stronger currencies, and lower inflation expectations. Apparently, that is why markets are bidding Gold prices down. I would disagree with this assumption, because it is about as optimistic as one can possibly be about an outcome to our current environment.
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    • Wed Apr 30th 14:11 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold, Oil, Potash and Food: Top Investments This Decade
      Yes, Gold is falling. Yes, Ag is correcting. The point of the article (which I strongly agree with) is that investing encompasses the purchase of an asset for a future return. The time frame for an investment in volatile times (similar to today's) should be extended even further. Don't look at Gold prices falling (while interest rates are going back down to historic lows) as a trend. It would be absolutely irrational if it was a trend. The more Gold prices are falling in an environment where interest rates are near or nearing all time lows, the more likely it is that a bottom for Gold will soon be found. As far as Ag is concerned: The same. Lower interest rates will drive inflation higher, especially (as proven by recent market prices) on essential or nondiscretionary items. Discretionary inflation is pretty much nonexistent and even deflationary and should therefore allow the Feds to keep the interest rates low for a longer period of time. (This of course, the FOMC will NOT admit to today: They want to create an environment of lower inflation expectations and will therefore probably even hint at rate increases in the near term). If you are looking short term, stay away from Oil, Ag, Gold. Long-term though, a WHOLE different story (see aforementioned $2000 - $200 parity).
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    • Mon Apr 21st 18:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Death of Gold?
      A (proven) contrarian Gold Buy signal would be: Gold is trading at an all time high of $730, then looses 25% of its value in just 30 days. These events played out from May to June 2006. I am confident that there were plenty of negative articles written on Gold after its descend from its high back in 2006. In retrospect, such negative articles were clear contrarian buy signals. Gold charts are a scary thing to look at and certainly remain a big turn-off to a lot of potential gold investors. For example, look at Gold chart 1975-1979 and compare that to 1980-1984. You'll know immediately what I am mean. Gold should therefore not be a long term investment strategy but rather a play on higher inflation expectations and weaker currencies, specifically US dollar. Our economic environment still points towards higher inflation and a weaker dollar. Buying gold now will serve as a hedge later. For example, the federal funds rate was well above 10% between 1980-1984 (even as high as 19% in 1981). Therefore, inflation expectations were extremely low, thus contributing to the collapse of Gold. Be disciplined about gold. If you have bought Gold between $900 and $1000, wait until it drops below $900, or better $850 to buy some more. Consider Gold below $750 a gift and buy some more. If, however, there are fundamental economic changes favoring a stronger dollar and lower inflation expectations, you can throw the whole Gold theory out the window.
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    • Mon Apr 21st 14:13 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Don't Shoot the Speculator for Commodity Prices
      Commodities are speculative trades by nature and traditionally have never been regarded as an investment. Commodity prices will always be driven by speculators. These are not equities that file financial statements or give you guidance on their earnings. There are no EPS's or P/E's, balance sheets, income statements, or cash flow statements. Commodities is where the action is for speculators. So what is the speculation or the speculative fuss all about? Apparently (the speculation is), that we are in the midst of a long term (global) bull market for commodities created by future short supplies and higher demand (energy, infrastructure, food). If you are buying (long) into this theory now, you are a speculating. Disclosure: Long commodities. :-)
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    • Mon Apr 21st 01:19 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Energy Affecting Food Prices
      Correction: There is no doubt ... (see above)
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    • Mon Apr 21st 01:17 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Energy Affecting Food Prices
      There is doubt that due to speculative money, commodity prices can become artificial. But only to some extent. Recent gasoline and crude oil inventory numbers came in well below expectations. Unless production is increased this trend will continue. Based on such figures, one has to assume that the global (and US) demand side "stories" are true. Even on the supply side, there is only that much room for speculation before one hits sobering numbers and on production/output.
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    • Sun Apr 20th 21:11 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What Is Citi Stock Worth?
      C trades at a high PE because future financials (specifically income statements) will not reflect huge write-offs similar to the ones in the past few quarters. Even though the write-offs stem from balance sheet items, they needed to run through the income statement as an expense. That is because companies are not allowed to, let's say, capitalize expenses such as the write-offs. Similarly, when a company profits from the sale of an investment, it needs to run the profits through the income statement, whereas it would probably prefer to capitialize the gain on their balance sheet and depreciate it over time. Certain items, or transactions, can be capitalized on the balance sheet, but the accounting "world" has really tried to clamp down on it to provide clarity for the readers of the financil statements. For example, look at JNY, a profitable Retail company, currently trading at around P/E 4, (industry average is easily double that), because of their (very) profitable sale of Barney's New York to the Saudis.
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    • Sat Apr 19th 17:21 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Shorting Citi on Today's Jump
      Shorting the financials is still a very good trade, but by no means a way to make money in the long run. Still, like any investment, pick your financials wisely, like focusing on equities with exposure to weak or weakening lending markets. C, like Wamu, has already been through every whiplash (up or down) imaginable. It would be annoying (to say the least) to try trading that kind of garbbage. Instead, focus on other financials that maybe have not hit the news as much. In order to maintain my credibility (yes, tips are for waiters) I will not give any stock tips here, but allow you to do your own research. Anyhow, I do like the above call, even though the $26.25 does sound a bit too perfect.
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    • Thu Apr 17th 15:52 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Would Be $65 if the Dollar Had Stayed Strong - AGI
      So which came first, the chicken or the egg? Considering the collapse of the US dollar (versus other currencies), we already know that (hence) oil is more expensive in dollars than in euros. Oil has also traded pretty much in parallel to gold in the chart's time span. So? I guess, I would have expected a different approach or different analysis (charts, etc.) to the argument that a stronger dollar means more stable commodity prices? Or, maybe I am just not getting this article. Sorry, no Kudos here.
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    • Tue Apr 15th 00:18 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Turning Bullish on Gold and Gold Stocks
      Babak, thanks for the article. If I understand you correctly, you basically present a bearish case for Gold and then adopt a contrarian view to the analysis. That is one heck of a confusing way for being bullish on gold. Neverthless, thanks for the data.
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