Paul Price

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129 Comments

    • Mon May 19th 08:29 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Kraft: A Tasty Long-Term Play - Barron's
      The high and low share prices did not transfer above. Here they are:

      KFT: 2002 High = $43.90 Low = $37.20
      .......2007 High = $32.50 Low = $30.00
      View article »
    • Mon May 19th 08:26 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Kraft: A Tasty Long-Term Play - Barron's
      Date: May 19, 2008 05:59AM


      Kraft shares have been real dogs since 2002 and with good reason.

      Year.........EPS......... Flow/Share.........High Share Price.........Low Share Price

      2002......$2.02..........

      2007......$1.82..........


      Kraft's per share earnings declined over the full five years and its share price has gone sideways to down.
      Cash flow per share barely grew over those 5 years either.

      Kraft shares finished last week at $32.51 or almost exactly at their LOW price from the year 2002. Those silly enough to have bought at 2002's high are down 25.9% in share price six years later [and still negative on a total return basis even after considering dividends].

      All the commonly quoted reasons for owning KFT such as 'great brand names' and 'people are always going to eat' were as true back in 2002 as they are today but did nothing to help you if you paid too high a valuation to get in six years ago.

      Buyers in 2002 were the 'no-brainers' not the shares.

      I do expect KFT to do a bit better looking forward but there are much more compelling values
      available elsewhere.
      View article »
    • Sun May 18th 21:08 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      United Health: Good Medicine for Your Portfolio
      UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH):

      UnitedHealth Group Incorporated cuts 2008 outlook 10% to between $3.55 and $3.60, as decline in subscriptions and employment hurt business. Healthcare insurance provider recently won a contract in Tennessee, expected to bring in an additional $1 billion annually, starting 2009. The company’s earnings were slightly higher at $994 million or $0.80 a share compared to $927 million or $0.78 a share last year, on 7% revenue increase to $20.3 billion.

      Wallace Weitz holds 3,678,261 shares of UNH as of 3/31/08. Robert Olstein, George Soros, Dodge & Cox, Chris Davis, Edward Owens, Warren Buffett, David Dreman, Bill Miller, Kenneth Fisher, Glenn Greenberg, Ronald Muhlenkamp, and Ron Baron also own shares of UNH.



      UnitedHealth Group Inc. has a market cap of $39.99 billion; its shares were traded at around $32.55 with a P/E ratio of 9.17 and P/S ratio of 0.53. The dividend yield of UnitedHealth Group Inc. stocks is 0.1%.
      View article »
    • Fri May 16th 16:34 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      United Health: Good Medicine for Your Portfolio
      It was announced today that Warren Buffett [through BRK] added 25% to his position in UNH during the March quarter bringing his holdings to over 7.5 MM shares.
      View article »
    • Fri May 16th 15:51 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      MicroStrategy: An Enterprising Small-Cap
      Your salary is all 'pre-tax' money. Does that make it unattractive?

      If you make $635 on the expired option in your example by writing a put against stock you are already holding it is, indeed, a return on a negative cost of capital.

      If you want to calculate the return on your theoretical margin requirement of 20% of your net committment of $6315 then the return on that would be $655/$1263 or 51.86% for the eight months until expiration [assuming the shares stay above $70].

      View article »
    • Fri May 16th 08:46 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      MicroStrategy: An Enterprising Small-Cap
      I actually got better prices than described in my posting for exactly those trade early yesterday. I could should you copies of my confirms if that's what it takes to prove the prices were legit.

      Commissions are a non-factor for me. I pay $1 per contract or less for option trading [with a $1 minimum] at InteractiveBrokers and TradeStation. I pay one cent or less per share to trade stocks with them with the same $1 minimum for 100 shares.

      You do need a 'margin type' account and paid-up marginable equity to do these trades. You do not need to lay out any cash other than your net purchase price less the option premimums received.

      The cash-on-cash return is exactly accurate as written above.

      I've been doing this type of trading for almost 30 years. It works.
      View article »
    • Tue May 13th 21:25 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Collective Brands: Trademark Infringement Case Update and Stock Assessment
      Looks like a 'shoe thing'.
      View article »
    • Mon May 12th 22:26 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Coca-Cola Enterprises About to Bottle Rocket Higher?
      See ZACK's late December write-up here on SeekingAlpha to see more reasons to like this one.

      Ironically, when ZACK's loved the stock in late 2007 it was almost exactly at its 52-week high.

      Nothing much has changed except that the price is way better [lower] now. I like to get a bargain - not buy momentum.
      View article »
    • Sun May 11th 23:04 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Can Investors Still Rely on a Stock's P/E Ratio?
      Instead of wasting time and effort trying to guess the macro market, just start looking at companies on a bottoms-up basis and ignore all the 'noise'.

      Things do regress to the mean but it's much easier to predict on individual stocks than on the market as a whole.

      View article »
    • Sun May 11th 10:48 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Crocs: Value Building or Value Trap?
      Why in the world would you [or anyone] advise buying 'on general market strength' as opposed to buying something you like when it was selling cheaper?
      View article »
    • Sun May 11th 10:07 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Interactive Brokers Group: Strong Earnings, Unconventional Offer
      Your writing clarity leaves a lot to be desired.

      It appears you mean t say that InterActiveBrokers was OFFERING new shares for the public to buy at a minimum of $33.50 rather than TENDERING to buy shares FROM the public.

      If so, then it's clear that people investors wouldn't be lining up to pay higher than market price- thus the withdrawal of the OFFER.

      Exisiting shareholders would have seen their book value GROW as the newly issued shares [at higher than current book value] would have been anti-dilutive to old holders.

      I own these shares and like the company's business model. Your article was unclear as to your point of view and the recent activities of the company.
      View article »
    • Thu May 8th 20:51 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Crocs Play for Chickens
      Looks like Crox is alive and well...blah, blah, blah.
      View article »
    • Wed May 7th 23:10 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Safe Way to Play Potash Corp.
      Anything below $110.50 would create a paper loss.

      POT finished at almost $198 today with the DJIA down > 200 pts.

      I'd be happy to own it at $110.50 with expected 2008 EPS of
      around $10.
      View article »
    • Wed May 7th 23:06 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      No Hope Left for Crocs
      Latest earnings are out and CROX is > $11 aftermarket on a day when the DJIA was down > 200 pts.

      CROX looks strong on new guidance for $1.55 - 1.70 for the year.
      View article »
    • Tue May 6th 08:59 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Safe Way to Play Potash Corp.
      This was my trade confirmation from May 1, 2008:

      05/01/2008 Settles 05/02/2008

      Sold POTASH CORP SASK INC
      JAN '09 @ 120 PUT - OPENING CONTRACT
      ZFU MD 2 9.50 Principal 1,900.00 MGN 41 41441
      73755LEMD Commission 2.00
      Transaction Fee 0.02
      NET AMOUNT 1,897.98
      View article »
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