jjc7477

14 Comments

    • Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
      Dear Gabe,

      It would be a heck of a lot easier to swallow your extremely optomistic argument without the following factors: 1) Foreclosures 2) Consumer Credit 3) Unemployment 4) Stronger dollar offsetting the one bright glimpse of hope-exports.

      Anyone who believes we are going to return to the golden days of "buy now, pay later" is in for a very rude awakening.

      A perfect example took place yesterday. I lease a Cadillac DTS for my business which is set to expire soon. I contacted my dealer and was informed the rules have changed. Leases would be extremely difficult to come by and would be at a premium. So you can better understand the ramifications of what I'm saying, this would be my seventh Cadillac leased from this dealer in the past eighteen years and my credit is pristine (I'm an early baby boomer who never became trapped in the easy credit ways). He also informed me his dealership is leading the midwest for Cadillacs sold in September-----6. This as of September 10th. Now taking this data and extrapolating it out to include the general population, most who have far worse credit than mine, how many people do you believe are standing in line to lease vehicles? Which means for the first time in many a year, they will have to buy cars and put together a substantial downpayment. How many blue collar or middle class people do you believe have the amount of money--or credit-- necessary to finance a new vehicle?

      I'm afraid we are just beginning what will be one extremely painful and long recovery. Frankly, I hope you're right and I'm dead wrong, but I've got to believe this time you're on the wrong side of the bet.

      JJC



      Sep 11 10:38 AM
    • Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
      Gabe,

      I'm in Detroit and believe me, we have inflation AND deflation here. Homes and businesses deflating while costs and taxes inflating. I think you should seriously take off those rose colored glasses you wear and take a good look around. It may be true that the European and emerging nations will feel dramatic pain, but if you think that's going to be our resolution here, you are very sadly mistaken my friend.       Aug 20 12:33 PM
    • (Hyper)-Inflation, Deflation, HOCG and LOCG [view article]
      The biggest problem with hyperinflation is how does one preserve wealth? I've recently read a book by Peter Schiff: "Crash Profits" which was written two years ago and is eerily matching almost step-by-step the issues we are facing today and addresses that very subject. I'd highly recommend reading it---and fast---we may be reaching a crescendo here very shortly. Jul 14 03:37 PM
    • Is There Really an Inflation Conundrum? [view article]
      If it were just a housing issue or just a credit issue or just a commodity issue, maybe it would be easy to answer which direction the Fed should move, if at all. The problem, however, is when you have all three of these PLUS a slowing economy, there truly is no solution. If ever I've felt the world economy stands at the brink, it's now. The myriad of events unfolding worldwide over the past several weeks, especially as the rest of the world's economies have begun to contract along with ours, has taken on the ominous appearance of a ticking time bomb. Jul 08 10:59 AM
    • Steel: The Top Is In Parts II, III [view article]
      I am in the industry and attended the Steel Success Strategies symposium in New York where Marcus spoke. For those interested observers, Peter Marcus is viewed by virtually all in our industry as a nincompoop. He takes the "contrarian" position and then moves nine steps dead left. Personally, when he makes an announcement, I use that as an opportunity to bet against him----and usually win.

      Currently, many factors are in place to support a strong steel market going forward: 1) Scrap is in short supply and availability is shrinking. 2) Domestic US mills are for the first time in over thirty years exporting material. 3) The US mills have shown great restraint when price begin to erode by removing capacity from the market. 4) The dollar is weak and will continue to be so as long as the US economy remains lethargic and Bernanke and the rest of the world are not in sync.

      I could go on and on, but suffice it to say at the SSS gathering, Marcus and Karlis were outnumbered about seven hundred to one.       Jun 30 05:17 PM
    • Energy MLPs and Royalty Trusts Analysts Love [view article]
      Nice article Marc. How do you feel about BPT as a royalty trust? Does it still have legs? Jun 17 10:29 AM
    • Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
      It's extremely disheartening to see the lack of direction by the idiots who manage our country. So much time is wasted on their reelections or finger pointing at the opponents across the aisle, that nothing EVER gets accomplished. It will not be surprising to me to see uprisings throughout out nation in the next few years as more and more of our middle and lower class are forced to the brink of poverty and beyond. When that happens, woe to the those in office. Jun 13 10:24 AM
    • Thursday Outlook: Crude Awakening [view article]
      Is it my imagination or have we lost America? We seem to drift aimlessly searching for solutions to our issues and yet we are supposedly the society of the entrepreneur. In order to "put food on the table and pay bills" as David so eloquently states it, we have to do the hard thing and start making changes ourselves. It begins by applying pressure upon our governmental representatives and subsequently standing up and DEMANDING change. If we work as a cohesive group to force those we hire to represent us to actively work together to reach a solution we will succeed. Otherwise, we will continue to have this conversation forever.
      May 22 04:12 PM
    • Thursday Outlook: Crude Awakening [view article]
      Your "ranting" sounds an awful lot like the rest of us David. The most frustrating issue of all is the fact no matter how loud we complain, the idiots in Washington JUST DON'T GET IT. It won't matter who we elect this fall; every one of them (I'm including presidential and congressional candidates here) is truly clueless and would rather pander to the special interest groups then look at some of the viable options you noted above.

      Maybe you could run for President!! Fry in 2012!       May 22 06:37 AM
    • Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
      Make that three on a match. I miss you when you're out doing the travel thing! May 21 09:32 AM
    • Can Steel Stocks Continue to Climb? [view article]
      I'm in the steel service sector of the industry and am also long NUE, PKX and SLX. I typically import about 20% of my annual volume but over the past year this has shriveled to nothing. Every company buying steel in the US or Mexico is part of a captive audience: no where to go for relief due to the dollar, the high cost of ocean freight and fierce demand in other market.

      I began to go long in February and believe we are looking at a trend that should last into 2009. Yes, the mills are facing increased raw material costs, but witnessed by Nucor's and SDI's purchase of scrap companies and Nucor's new pig iron operation plans, they are spending their new found wealth prudently and ultimately, these costs will become somewhat contained.       May 21 06:45 AM
    • Hardball in Vallejo, California [view article]
      I'd like to see the state of Michigan forced to declare bankruptcy. The combination of legislative democratic bureaucrats intent upon taxing its citizens and businesses to ruination, teacher and labor unions who do everything they can to prevent any right to work mandates from passing congress, and the failing domestic automotive industry, are combining to sink this state faster then AIG's stock price. By forcing the state into bankruptcy, maybe we could finally force well past due changes to take place here. May 09 08:41 AM
    • Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
      I'm new to looking at this column and quickly becoming addicted also. I'm unfamiliar with the author Murphy listed here and would like to pick up a copy of the book Greg in Al and salad1bar mention. Can someone share the name with me please? Thanks for the help!

      JJC       Apr 02 05:03 PM
    • Diana Shipping: Prime Rebound Candidate [view article]
      To Marol:

      Perhaps it would help to create a spreadsheet similar to one I've been using to give a historical perspective of dividend influence. I use Yahoo Finance's historical pricing and dividend data and download the info to an Excel spreadsheet. Then I use the history to perform a study based on a ten year period. I start with a $100 investment and then follow the stock to determine what the valuation would be if I didn't touch it again. A great example (not specifically related to this article) is ticker BPT. It's amazing how much value you can gain by having high yield stocks. In a bear market when stocks depreciate, you gain value by being able to purchase more shares as long as the dividend stays consistent (dollar wise) or growing. In the case of BPT, the dividend does fluctuate, but the dollars are so high you still gain a decent return. An important note: dividends are taxable and this of course affects the annual return. By the way, exclusive of taxation, $100 of BPT bought April 15th, 1998 would be worth $2600 as of January 14th, 2008 (AND the stock has increased since then!).

      Mar 30 01:45 PM
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