jjc7477

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Dave,

I know I'm just one of many based on the huge support posted above, but like the others my prayers are with you and Francie. She is a lovely lady and sounds like the kind of person who will kick butt. Your daily postings and humor are a highlight of my day. Hang tough big guy!

John

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

I have one potential candidate David. I'm in the steel industry and have had an opportunity to listen to Dan Dimicco of Nucor speak. He has passion, knowledge and is a guy who can't be bought. My hope is as we fall deeper into the abyss, we will hear of others----hopefully none with a political or financial background----who will say 'that's enough!' and begin to speak for the people/entrepeneurs of the world. I think the issue now is everyone is still too shocked to react and once it becomes accepted fact that we are in this for an extremely long time, everyone will realize the villians for who they are (look over your shoulder Barney, Nancy and gang) and begin the rebuilding process.

Like you, I'm an older guy and can only hope it happens soon enough to allow our children and grandchildren some respite from the foolhardiness of our brethren.

Keep on posting and keep the faith!

U.S. Needs to Return to Its Manufacturing Base

To: Cico,

You have been brainwashed by what you've been reading in the papers my friend. Why do you think nations such as China and India have been able to grow at a double digit annualized rate? It's due to the fact they make things. If you believe for one minute your son will be part of a high value industry, take a look at where most of the high tech growth is taking place right now. India, Taiwan, China, Thailand, Vietnam and on and on. I happen to work in the manufacturing sector in one of the most basic of industries: steel. I have had an excellent career and my first job was as a bander of steel coils making $3.50 an hour in 1977. Most positions in factories are not sweat shop jobs and for each of these, there are two which require talented individuals to manage, build dies, design and promote (sales). The problem as I see it, and believe me it is a gigantic one, is when we stop making anything, what is left for our people to do. Do you truly believe for one second the rest of the world is going to sit still while we tell them what to do?

USO: Is a Probable Capitulation in the Works?

Ok Mark,

What gives? Here is your posting from the 25th article titled: "Buying USO is a no-brainer":

'Time to try and catch a falling knife: I usually don't recommend trying to pick a bottom, but with USO's extreme oversold condition, it is a definite buy at these give away levels. The shares have simply dropped too much in too short of a time representing a more than compelling opportunity. IF USO continues to fall, I would simply buy more to dollar cost average. The upside potential simply dwarfs the downside risk at this juncture. I suspect the downside potential is about $5, while the upside is more like $30.'

and now your posting from above:

'Don't try and catch a falling knife. Wait for the shares to commence a trend change and begin buying as USO starts to rally'.

If these two articles were more then four days apart there might at least be some reasoning to support the contrary positions, but now it just makes me question your credibility. Which way is it: buy now or wait until later???

If You Ever See a Chart Like This, Run Away Fast

Doublebeta,

He was getting 2 and 20, now he'll have a chance at 5 to 10!

Is the Second Great Depression Imminent?

I found this quote and I thought it really hit our issues on the head:

The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for
authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place
of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their
households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They
contradict their parents, chatter before company, gobble up dainties
at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannize their teachers

Socrates 400 BC

We are living in very troubling times, but if we managed to live through tyrants such as Hitler in the not too distant past, I think we'll survive this too. Granted, it may require us to do things many have never learned (our younger generation) and the rest of us have forgotten (those old enough to remember the 60's and 70's), but frankly, a return to values will save us. I do not believe we will be reduced to rioting in the streets and carrying guns and knives for protection.

Markets Upbeat After Obama Victory

Hey look! The market is even more "upbeat" today! At this pace we can cheer the market all the way to ZERO!!!

Thanks Mole! You sure know your stuff!!!!!

Obama and Your Portfolio

As long as it's a day for prose:

There once was a man named Obama
People thought he was the Dalai Lama
A Martin Luther King-like voice
Made them want to rejoice
But his policies brought us much trauma

Steeling for the Downturn

Tell us something we don't know.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Dear Sieraromero,

You forgot a few zeros there my friend. You just covered the first 350 Americans. What about the other 299,999,650?
However, if you'd like to make me one of the 350.......

Let Buffet Do the Buying for You

Over the last month I've tripled my investment in BRK.B and now hold 18% of my portfolio there. This is the market Buffett has been dreaming of since he was a boy and I believe when he finishes picking clean the bones of the sheeple who can't wait to throw out the babies with the bath water, all who make the commitment now will enjoy returns seen in the early days of Berkshire. Trust
Warren!

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

I can only say thanks Dave for the definitions. For the first time in over a week I actually laughed until I cried. Actually, I've been crying all week!!

John

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Dear Gabe,

It would be a heck of a lot easier to swallow your extremely optomistic argument without the following factors: 1) Foreclosures 2) Consumer Credit 3) Unemployment 4) Stronger dollar offsetting the one bright glimpse of hope-exports.

Anyone who believes we are going to return to the golden days of "buy now, pay later" is in for a very rude awakening.

A perfect example took place yesterday. I lease a Cadillac DTS for my business which is set to expire soon. I contacted my dealer and was informed the rules have changed. Leases would be extremely difficult to come by and would be at a premium. So you can better understand the ramifications of what I'm saying, this would be my seventh Cadillac leased from this dealer in the past eighteen years and my credit is pristine (I'm an early baby boomer who never became trapped in the easy credit ways). He also informed me his dealership is leading the midwest for Cadillacs sold in September-----6. This as of September 10th. Now taking this data and extrapolating it out to include the general population, most who have far worse credit than mine, how many people do you believe are standing in line to lease vehicles? Which means for the first time in many a year, they will have to buy cars and put together a substantial downpayment. How many blue collar or middle class people do you believe have the amount of money--or credit-- necessary to finance a new vehicle?

I'm afraid we are just beginning what will be one extremely painful and long recovery. Frankly, I hope you're right and I'm dead wrong, but I've got to believe this time you're on the wrong side of the bet.

JJC

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Gabe,

I'm in Detroit and believe me, we have inflation AND deflation here. Homes and businesses deflating while costs and taxes inflating. I think you should seriously take off those rose colored glasses you wear and take a good look around. It may be true that the European and emerging nations will feel dramatic pain, but if you think that's going to be our resolution here, you are very sadly mistaken my friend.

(Hyper)-Inflation, Deflation, HOCG and LOCG

The biggest problem with hyperinflation is how does one preserve wealth? I've recently read a book by Peter Schiff: "Crash Profits" which was written two years ago and is eerily matching almost step-by-step the issues we are facing today and addresses that very subject. I'd highly recommend reading it---and fast---we may be reaching a crescendo here very shortly.