jjc7477's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/166282/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/133456-thursday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-494125 494125
I know I'm just one of many based on the huge support posted above, but like the others my prayers are with you and Francie. She is a lovely lady and sounds like the kind of person who will kick butt. Your daily postings and humor are a highlight of my day. Hang tough big guy!

John]]> Thu, 07 May 2009 13:26:26 -0400
I know I'm just one of many based on the huge support posted above, but like the others my prayers are with you and Francie. She is a lovely lady and sounds like the kind of person who will kick butt. Your daily postings and humor are a highlight of my day. Hang tough big guy!

John]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123979-friday-outlook-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-415781 415781
Like you, I'm an older guy and can only hope it happens soon enough to allow our children and grandchildren some respite from the foolhardiness of our brethren.

Keep on posting and keep the faith!]]> Fri, 06 Mar 2009 09:36:23 -0500
Like you, I'm an older guy and can only hope it happens soon enough to allow our children and grandchildren some respite from the foolhardiness of our brethren.

Keep on posting and keep the faith!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119136-u-s-needs-to-return-to-its-manufacturing-base?source=feed#comment-380211 380211
You have been brainwashed by what you've been reading in the papers my friend. Why do you think nations such as China and India have been able to grow at a double digit annualized rate? It's due to the fact they make things. If you believe for one minute your son will be part of a high value industry, take a look at where most of the high tech growth is taking place right now. India, Taiwan, China, Thailand, Vietnam and on and on. I happen to work in the manufacturing sector in one of the most basic of industries: steel. I have had an excellent career and my first job was as a bander of steel coils making $3.50 an hour in 1977. Most positions in factories are not sweat shop jobs and for each of these, there are two which require talented individuals to manage, build dies, design and promote (sales). The problem as I see it, and believe me it is a gigantic one, is when we stop making anything, what is left for our people to do. Do you truly believe for one second the rest of the world is going to sit still while we tell them what to do? ]]> Sun, 08 Feb 2009 17:46:58 -0500
You have been brainwashed by what you've been reading in the papers my friend. Why do you think nations such as China and India have been able to grow at a double digit annualized rate? It's due to the fact they make things. If you believe for one minute your son will be part of a high value industry, take a look at where most of the high tech growth is taking place right now. India, Taiwan, China, Thailand, Vietnam and on and on. I happen to work in the manufacturing sector in one of the most basic of industries: steel. I have had an excellent career and my first job was as a bander of steel coils making $3.50 an hour in 1977. Most positions in factories are not sweat shop jobs and for each of these, there are two which require talented individuals to manage, build dies, design and promote (sales). The problem as I see it, and believe me it is a gigantic one, is when we stop making anything, what is left for our people to do. Do you truly believe for one second the rest of the world is going to sit still while we tell them what to do? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112461-uso-is-a-probable-capitulation-in-the-works?source=feed#comment-340529 340529
What gives? Here is your posting from the 25th article titled: "Buying USO is a no-brainer":

'Time to try and catch a falling knife: I usually don't recommend trying to pick a bottom, but with USO's extreme oversold condition, it is a definite buy at these give away levels. The shares have simply dropped too much in too short of a time representing a more than compelling opportunity. IF USO continues to fall, I would simply buy more to dollar cost average. The upside potential simply dwarfs the downside risk at this juncture. I suspect the downside potential is about $5, while the upside is more like $30.'

and now your posting from above:

'Don't try and catch a falling knife. Wait for the shares to commence a trend change and begin buying as USO starts to rally'.

If these two articles were more then four days apart there might at least be some reasoning to support the contrary positions, but now it just makes me question your credibility. Which way is it: buy now or wait until later???]]> Mon, 29 Dec 2008 11:18:02 -0500
What gives? Here is your posting from the 25th article titled: "Buying USO is a no-brainer":

'Time to try and catch a falling knife: I usually don't recommend trying to pick a bottom, but with USO's extreme oversold condition, it is a definite buy at these give away levels. The shares have simply dropped too much in too short of a time representing a more than compelling opportunity. IF USO continues to fall, I would simply buy more to dollar cost average. The upside potential simply dwarfs the downside risk at this juncture. I suspect the downside potential is about $5, while the upside is more like $30.'

and now your posting from above:

'Don't try and catch a falling knife. Wait for the shares to commence a trend change and begin buying as USO starts to rally'.

If these two articles were more then four days apart there might at least be some reasoning to support the contrary positions, but now it just makes me question your credibility. Which way is it: buy now or wait until later???]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111559-if-you-ever-see-a-chart-like-this-run-away-fast?source=feed#comment-333975 333975
He was getting 2 and 20, now he'll have a chance at 5 to 10!]]> Fri, 19 Dec 2008 11:32:30 -0500
He was getting 2 and 20, now he'll have a chance at 5 to 10!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110739-is-the-second-great-depression-imminent?source=feed#comment-331316 331316
The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for
authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place
of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their
households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They
contradict their parents, chatter before company, gobble up dainties
at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannize their teachers

Socrates 400 BC

We are living in very troubling times, but if we managed to live through tyrants such as Hitler in the not too distant past, I think we'll survive this too. Granted, it may require us to do things many have never learned (our younger generation) and the rest of us have forgotten (those old enough to remember the 60's and 70's), but frankly, a return to values will save us. I do not believe we will be reduced to rioting in the streets and carrying guns and knives for protection.
]]> Tue, 16 Dec 2008 15:36:13 -0500
The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for
authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place
of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their
households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They
contradict their parents, chatter before company, gobble up dainties
at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannize their teachers

Socrates 400 BC

We are living in very troubling times, but if we managed to live through tyrants such as Hitler in the not too distant past, I think we'll survive this too. Granted, it may require us to do things many have never learned (our younger generation) and the rest of us have forgotten (those old enough to remember the 60's and 70's), but frankly, a return to values will save us. I do not believe we will be reduced to rioting in the streets and carrying guns and knives for protection.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104142-markets-upbeat-after-obama-victory?source=feed#comment-299443 299443
Thanks Mole! You sure know your stuff!!!!!]]> Thu, 06 Nov 2008 11:34:37 -0500
Thanks Mole! You sure know your stuff!!!!!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104154-obama-and-your-portfolio?source=feed#comment-299391 299391
There once was a man named Obama
People thought he was the Dalai Lama
A Martin Luther King-like voice
Made them want to rejoice
But his policies brought us much trauma
]]> Thu, 06 Nov 2008 10:53:24 -0500
There once was a man named Obama
People thought he was the Dalai Lama
A Martin Luther King-like voice
Made them want to rejoice
But his policies brought us much trauma
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103198-steeling-for-the-downturn?source=feed#comment-295308 295308 Fri, 31 Oct 2008 14:06:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/101372-thursday-outlook-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-288642 288642
You forgot a few zeros there my friend. You just covered the first 350 Americans. What about the other 299,999,650?
However, if you'd like to make me one of the 350.......]]> Thu, 23 Oct 2008 10:31:20 -0400
You forgot a few zeros there my friend. You just covered the first 350 Americans. What about the other 299,999,650?
However, if you'd like to make me one of the 350.......]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100843-let-buffet-do-the-buying-for-you?source=feed#comment-287928 287928 Warren!]]> Wed, 22 Oct 2008 13:12:41 -0400 Warren!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99307-friday-outlook-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-278762 278762
John]]> Fri, 10 Oct 2008 09:21:10 -0400
John]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94953-thursday-outlook-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-251565 251565
It would be a heck of a lot easier to swallow your extremely optomistic argument without the following factors: 1) Foreclosures 2) Consumer Credit 3) Unemployment 4) Stronger dollar offsetting the one bright glimpse of hope-exports.

Anyone who believes we are going to return to the golden days of "buy now, pay later" is in for a very rude awakening.

A perfect example took place yesterday. I lease a Cadillac DTS for my business which is set to expire soon. I contacted my dealer and was informed the rules have changed. Leases would be extremely difficult to come by and would be at a premium. So you can better understand the ramifications of what I'm saying, this would be my seventh Cadillac leased from this dealer in the past eighteen years and my credit is pristine (I'm an early baby boomer who never became trapped in the easy credit ways). He also informed me his dealership is leading the midwest for Cadillacs sold in September-----6. This as of September 10th. Now taking this data and extrapolating it out to include the general population, most who have far worse credit than mine, how many people do you believe are standing in line to lease vehicles? Which means for the first time in many a year, they will have to buy cars and put together a substantial downpayment. How many blue collar or middle class people do you believe have the amount of money--or credit-- necessary to finance a new vehicle?

I'm afraid we are just beginning what will be one extremely painful and long recovery. Frankly, I hope you're right and I'm dead wrong, but I've got to believe this time you're on the wrong side of the bet.

JJC



]]> Thu, 11 Sep 2008 10:38:53 -0400
It would be a heck of a lot easier to swallow your extremely optomistic argument without the following factors: 1) Foreclosures 2) Consumer Credit 3) Unemployment 4) Stronger dollar offsetting the one bright glimpse of hope-exports.

Anyone who believes we are going to return to the golden days of "buy now, pay later" is in for a very rude awakening.

A perfect example took place yesterday. I lease a Cadillac DTS for my business which is set to expire soon. I contacted my dealer and was informed the rules have changed. Leases would be extremely difficult to come by and would be at a premium. So you can better understand the ramifications of what I'm saying, this would be my seventh Cadillac leased from this dealer in the past eighteen years and my credit is pristine (I'm an early baby boomer who never became trapped in the easy credit ways). He also informed me his dealership is leading the midwest for Cadillacs sold in September-----6. This as of September 10th. Now taking this data and extrapolating it out to include the general population, most who have far worse credit than mine, how many people do you believe are standing in line to lease vehicles? Which means for the first time in many a year, they will have to buy cars and put together a substantial downpayment. How many blue collar or middle class people do you believe have the amount of money--or credit-- necessary to finance a new vehicle?

I'm afraid we are just beginning what will be one extremely painful and long recovery. Frankly, I hope you're right and I'm dead wrong, but I've got to believe this time you're on the wrong side of the bet.

JJC



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91743-wednesday-outlook-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-234894 234894
I'm in Detroit and believe me, we have inflation AND deflation here. Homes and businesses deflating while costs and taxes inflating. I think you should seriously take off those rose colored glasses you wear and take a good look around. It may be true that the European and emerging nations will feel dramatic pain, but if you think that's going to be our resolution here, you are very sadly mistaken my friend.]]> Wed, 20 Aug 2008 12:33:23 -0400
I'm in Detroit and believe me, we have inflation AND deflation here. Homes and businesses deflating while costs and taxes inflating. I think you should seriously take off those rose colored glasses you wear and take a good look around. It may be true that the European and emerging nations will feel dramatic pain, but if you think that's going to be our resolution here, you are very sadly mistaken my friend.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84819-hyper-inflation-deflation-hocg-and-locg?source=feed#comment-205409 205409 Mon, 14 Jul 2008 15:37:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84086-is-there-really-an-inflation-conundrum?source=feed#comment-200596 200596 Tue, 08 Jul 2008 10:59:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83151-steel-the-top-is-in-parts-ii-iii?source=feed#comment-196172 196172
Currently, many factors are in place to support a strong steel market going forward: 1) Scrap is in short supply and availability is shrinking. 2) Domestic US mills are for the first time in over thirty years exporting material. 3) The US mills have shown great restraint when price begin to erode by removing capacity from the market. 4) The dollar is weak and will continue to be so as long as the US economy remains lethargic and Bernanke and the rest of the world are not in sync.

I could go on and on, but suffice it to say at the SSS gathering, Marcus and Karlis were outnumbered about seven hundred to one.]]> Mon, 30 Jun 2008 17:17:56 -0400
Currently, many factors are in place to support a strong steel market going forward: 1) Scrap is in short supply and availability is shrinking. 2) Domestic US mills are for the first time in over thirty years exporting material. 3) The US mills have shown great restraint when price begin to erode by removing capacity from the market. 4) The dollar is weak and will continue to be so as long as the US economy remains lethargic and Bernanke and the rest of the world are not in sync.

I could go on and on, but suffice it to say at the SSS gathering, Marcus and Karlis were outnumbered about seven hundred to one.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81517-energy-mlps-and-royalty-trusts-analysts-love?source=feed#comment-187042 187042 Tue, 17 Jun 2008 10:29:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81229-friday-outlook-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-184909 184909 Fri, 13 Jun 2008 10:24:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78356-thursday-outlook-crude-awakening?source=feed#comment-172084 172084 ]]> Thu, 22 May 2008 16:12:05 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78356-thursday-outlook-crude-awakening?source=feed#comment-171561 171561
Maybe you could run for President!! Fry in 2012!]]> Thu, 22 May 2008 06:37:15 -0400
Maybe you could run for President!! Fry in 2012!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78236-wednesday-outlook-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-170991 170991 Wed, 21 May 2008 09:32:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77813-can-steel-stocks-continue-to-climb?source=feed#comment-170906 170906
I began to go long in February and believe we are looking at a trend that should last into 2009. Yes, the mills are facing increased raw material costs, but witnessed by Nucor's and SDI's purchase of scrap companies and Nucor's new pig iron operation plans, they are spending their new found wealth prudently and ultimately, these costs will become somewhat contained.]]> Wed, 21 May 2008 06:45:51 -0400
I began to go long in February and believe we are looking at a trend that should last into 2009. Yes, the mills are facing increased raw material costs, but witnessed by Nucor's and SDI's purchase of scrap companies and Nucor's new pig iron operation plans, they are spending their new found wealth prudently and ultimately, these costs will become somewhat contained.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/76534-hardball-in-vallejo-california?source=feed#comment-164711 164711 Fri, 09 May 2008 08:41:10 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70857-wednesday-outlook-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-135510 135510
JJC]]> Wed, 02 Apr 2008 17:03:07 -0400
JJC]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70365-diana-shipping-prime-rebound-candidate?source=feed#comment-133712 133712
Perhaps it would help to create a spreadsheet similar to one I've been using to give a historical perspective of dividend influence. I use Yahoo Finance's historical pricing and dividend data and download the info to an Excel spreadsheet. Then I use the history to perform a study based on a ten year period. I start with a $100 investment and then follow the stock to determine what the valuation would be if I didn't touch it again. A great example (not specifically related to this article) is ticker BPT. It's amazing how much value you can gain by having high yield stocks. In a bear market when stocks depreciate, you gain value by being able to purchase more shares as long as the dividend stays consistent (dollar wise) or growing. In the case of BPT, the dividend does fluctuate, but the dollars are so high you still gain a decent return. An important note: dividends are taxable and this of course affects the annual return. By the way, exclusive of taxation, $100 of BPT bought April 15th, 1998 would be worth $2600 as of January 14th, 2008 (AND the stock has increased since then!).

]]> Sun, 30 Mar 2008 13:45:45 -0400
Perhaps it would help to create a spreadsheet similar to one I've been using to give a historical perspective of dividend influence. I use Yahoo Finance's historical pricing and dividend data and download the info to an Excel spreadsheet. Then I use the history to perform a study based on a ten year period. I start with a $100 investment and then follow the stock to determine what the valuation would be if I didn't touch it again. A great example (not specifically related to this article) is ticker BPT. It's amazing how much value you can gain by having high yield stocks. In a bear market when stocks depreciate, you gain value by being able to purchase more shares as long as the dividend stays consistent (dollar wise) or growing. In the case of BPT, the dividend does fluctuate, but the dollars are so high you still gain a decent return. An important note: dividends are taxable and this of course affects the annual return. By the way, exclusive of taxation, $100 of BPT bought April 15th, 1998 would be worth $2600 as of January 14th, 2008 (AND the stock has increased since then!).

]]>