jjc7477

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Dave,

I know I'm just one of many based on the huge support posted above, but like the others my prayers are with you and Francie. She is a lovely lady and sounds like the kind of person who will kick butt. Your daily postings and humor are a highlight of my day. Hang tough big guy!

John

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

I can only say thanks Dave for the definitions. For the first time in over a week I actually laughed until I cried. Actually, I've been crying all week!!

John

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Dear Gabe,

It would be a heck of a lot easier to swallow your extremely optomistic argument without the following factors: 1) Foreclosures 2) Consumer Credit 3) Unemployment 4) Stronger dollar offsetting the one bright glimpse of hope-exports.

Anyone who believes we are going to return to the golden days of "buy now, pay later" is in for a very rude awakening.

A perfect example took place yesterday. I lease a Cadillac DTS for my business which is set to expire soon. I contacted my dealer and was informed the rules have changed. Leases would be extremely difficult to come by and would be at a premium. So you can better understand the ramifications of what I'm saying, this would be my seventh Cadillac leased from this dealer in the past eighteen years and my credit is pristine (I'm an early baby boomer who never became trapped in the easy credit ways). He also informed me his dealership is leading the midwest for Cadillacs sold in September-----6. This as of September 10th. Now taking this data and extrapolating it out to include the general population, most who have far worse credit than mine, how many people do you believe are standing in line to lease vehicles? Which means for the first time in many a year, they will have to buy cars and put together a substantial downpayment. How many blue collar or middle class people do you believe have the amount of money--or credit-- necessary to finance a new vehicle?

I'm afraid we are just beginning what will be one extremely painful and long recovery. Frankly, I hope you're right and I'm dead wrong, but I've got to believe this time you're on the wrong side of the bet.

JJC

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Gabe,

I'm in Detroit and believe me, we have inflation AND deflation here. Homes and businesses deflating while costs and taxes inflating. I think you should seriously take off those rose colored glasses you wear and take a good look around. It may be true that the European and emerging nations will feel dramatic pain, but if you think that's going to be our resolution here, you are very sadly mistaken my friend.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

It's extremely disheartening to see the lack of direction by the idiots who manage our country. So much time is wasted on their reelections or finger pointing at the opponents across the aisle, that nothing EVER gets accomplished. It will not be surprising to me to see uprisings throughout out nation in the next few years as more and more of our middle and lower class are forced to the brink of poverty and beyond. When that happens, woe to the those in office.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Make that three on a match. I miss you when you're out doing the travel thing!

Can Steel Stocks Continue to Climb?

I'm in the steel service sector of the industry and am also long NUE, PKX and SLX. I typically import about 20% of my annual volume but over the past year this has shriveled to nothing. Every company buying steel in the US or Mexico is part of a captive audience: no where to go for relief due to the dollar, the high cost of ocean freight and fierce demand in other market.

I began to go long in February and believe we are looking at a trend that should last into 2009. Yes, the mills are facing increased raw material costs, but witnessed by Nucor's and SDI's purchase of scrap companies and Nucor's new pig iron operation plans, they are spending their new found wealth prudently and ultimately, these costs will become somewhat contained.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

I'm new to looking at this column and quickly becoming addicted also. I'm unfamiliar with the author Murphy listed here and would like to pick up a copy of the book Greg in Al and salad1bar mention. Can someone share the name with me please? Thanks for the help!

JJC