enviro111

Agriculture Stocks May Be In for a Fertile Future

corn is a greedy plant. It needs all kinds of fertilizer. soybeans less so. however, the soils in Central Brazil need lots and lots potash.

china needs lots and lots of potash. they have few reserves of this critical mineral. own what China needs!

POT stock moves with ag price expectations. by the time the earnings come in, the party is mostly over. I see soybeans and corn making a bottom in early October, 2009. China is on a fantastic soybean buying spree this year. Even wheat is starting to move on bad harvest conditions for spring wheat, late frost in Australia, a bad harvest in the Ukraine and drought in Western Australia. I think next year, ag stockpiles will be low and farmers will be planting like crazy again.

The Case for Dumping Dollars, Buying Gold

Lots and lots of dummies here.

Some dummies at the beginning questioning whether gold will have any real value as money. For 5,000 years it has been money. That is a pretty good track record. Actually, in the last 25 years is probably been the 'worst' period for gold as money in the history of civilization. It is now in the process of re-establishing itself as money.

A fella who bought some physical gold and then wants to sell it a month later. Brillant! Physical gold is bought as insurance and kept for a long time -maybe forever! If you want to trade gold - buy the GLD ETF!

One smart fella suggested that bullion is insurance and miner's are leverage. Very true. Mines can be confiscated or be 'dry'. Stick to the big internation names or the ETFs.

One's definition of an investment determines if gold is an investment. Some say an investment must pay a dividend. Gold fails here. But so do most of the savings accounts which pay 0.01% on cash balances.

Silver isn't always better than gold. For decades it wasn't. Currently, it seems like it might be better - certainly more volatile. Ted Butler thinks it's better. It has always been better for small purchases. In future America it might not be better because virtually every American will have neither any gold or silver coins. This country has almost no 'real' money left in it. If the dollar collapses (say 90%) we will all be broke.

If someone is really worried about a collaspe in the US economy and society. Your money is probably not your biggest worry. If you are really worried (I'm not this worried), I would suggest.

1. Keep some cash at home (i.e., $2,000 if you can afford it).
2. Buy some silver ($250 in old junk coins)
3. Buy some gold eagles
4. Pay off your house and avoid debt
5. Store 6 months worth of food and water in your house.
6. Buy a crate of soap, cigarettes, razor blades and ammunition.
7. Talk to your neighbors about what they/you would do if the electricity/water/gas goes out for two weeks. Don't mention items 1-6.

Priming the Pump for $20/Gal. Gas: Interview with Chris Steiner

I haven't read the book, but I would like to read it.

It sounds like a reasonable futuristic book and laid out in an interesting format. No one has a crystal ball after all and can make perfect predictions.

I suspect the change in gasoline prices will not be smooth or painless - unless the government raises the prices $2/gal every year for the next ten years. I find this scenario unlikely.

The interview didn't talk of Peak Oil which I firmly believe is real and close at hand (CY 2010). Exportable oil will drop even faster than oil production. The oil producers will keep their own oil and export less and less. China and India will be pinched for oil. The USA will be hardest hit.

Currently, the USA uses about 20 million bbls per day and produces about 5 million bbls per day. This implies that we import about 15 million bbls per day. this varies according to season and recession/boom. Suppose that half of this were gradually removed from the USA and we had to get along on 12.5 million bbls per day??

Yamana Gold Looking Like a Takeover Target - Dundee

Long term I would rather hold a focused AUY with some big time growth prospects than a huge watered down NEM with only decline ahead of it.

I would hope the management of AUY extracts years worth of appreciation if they sell out. why give up a company that could triple in the next five years just for a small takeover premium??

The problem is there are too many quick buck artists and not enough long term investors.

Silver Shorts Exerting Price Control

Rather than counting up the number of shorts, perhaps you should focus on the longs? both must balance at the end of the day.

Perhaps the large number of shorts are the banks just taking the opposite position as the speculative longs? If you long at the COT data and the silver price data you will see it is the rise and fall of the speculative traders long/short position that determines the silver price movement. When traders buy the price move up and vice versa. The commerical dealer activity does not show this pattern.

However, I think the concentrated short position has held down prices big time. Without someone to take the other side of the future's trade, the traders would have to bid prices higher in order to find a seller. This would lead to higher silver prices in general.

Stephen Leeb's 'Game Over': Good Advice for Tough Times

You should take all stock picks with a grain of salt. No one knows the future. If leeb's future is true, it is likely that virtually all stocks will be bad investments. The economy and potential collapse is a dynamic process - not an incremental process. the process of building the economy of the last 150 years has been incremental with some burst due to technology and the growing use of ever cheaper and cleaner energy. If one of these factor ends (i.e., Peak Oil) then all bets are off. A collapse in one area will lead to problems in other areas. Most of the problems will be unforseen.

Take the windmill example - its not just the steel. Without cheap transportation

how will workers, equipment and supplies EFFICIENTLY get to the the sites where they are needed?

will transmission be available?

how about timely maintenance and repair? can it be done?

who will buy the power if they are unemployed?

who will finance the power if it not needed and the development costs keep rising?

how about social unrest and even war over scarce and more expensive basic resources?

Is the government going to just sit and be quiet or cause lots of new problems?

The Importance of the Dow-Gold Ratio

I think you should do the analysis using the S&P 500 or the Wilshire 5000 for all recent years. There have been too many substitutions in the Dow Jones 30 for it to give clear signals. Where would the dow be if bankrupt or near bankrupt companies were kept in the index?

Also, a more recent chart of gold vs dj utilities might be useful?

Also, I think silver will be a better investment than platinum or gold. Agriculture might be the best investment.

Oil Above $60/Barrel: Still Cheaper than a Cup of Coffee

His point about oil being cheaper than a cup of coffee wasn't to debate the merits of the two products but to show how really, really cheap oil currently is.

All these so called experts claim that oil is expensive at $60/bbl or $100/bbl or $150/bbl, but when you ask them if they can define what a 'barrel' is ...

you get --- uh-huh-duh ... "well it's like ..." "I don't know"

If you can't define the basis for the price, how do you know if it is expensive?

Most people know what a cup is and comparing the price of oil with other common liquids (i.e., water) is useful. The implication is that since oil is the backbone of our civilization, less plentiful and non renewable, it should cost more than water.

Regarding Transocean - RIG

It is a solid company that is selling at a fair price. It is not an oil company but a high tech oil services company so it might not be put through the Obama wringer like the major oil companies will probably get. however, it is dependent on the continuing need and ability of the industry to fund expensive deep , deep drilling projects.

I'm taking an unorthodox view here ...

Steven Leeb's peak oil might hit Transocean hard in an unexpected way ---- Nothing left to drill for in the deep ocean that is economical to recover.

the North Sea is almost finished as an oil producing area. The GOM isn't what it used to be. West Africa is in its heyday right now. but, Brazil offshore is the new frontier for exploration and development. The next 10 to 15 years will be the last harrah for RIG. After that if we aren't transitioning to renewables, society will likely be operating at a much lower level and not have sufficient resources to sink into many (will still be some) 25,000 foot ocean wells.

Peak Oil as a Function of Earth's Volume

It is absolutely preposterous to use volume of Earth statistics and oil reserves in the same analysis. They have almost nothing to do with each other. For starter's oil has never been found deeper than 30,000 feet in the Earth. It is almost always found in sedimentary rocks, and was created as a result of a previous severe global warming episode on the Earth about 75 million years ago. It does not 'bubble up' from the core of the Earth.

Railroad Companies: Good, Better, Best

A clear and useful analysis.

1. I completely agree with point #1. As peak oil approaches, fuel costs will rise and rails will look wonderful compared with trucks and planes.

2. The article focuses on freight rail. However, passenger rail will be the big money maker at some point - unless the government kills it. If this is the case, the Eastern rails will have a clear advantage because of the higher population density.

3. If you look at the long term chart of the six major rails, starting int 1980, you will see that CNI has the best return. It currently has the highest ROI and profit margins. It is also the most expensive. It is an Eastern rail with the inclusion of the old Illinois Central.
the next best returns are the NSC and the CSX. these are both Eastern. BNI leads UNP and CP. UNP is the worst.

Perhaps UNP is laggard because of the southern pacific acquisiton?

4. CNI and BNI are currently the most expensive. CSX was extremely expensive but has recently declined. CP is cheap and sells practically at book value.

5. If you look just a geography you might see that the Eastern ones have an advantage in terms of density and less maintenance. Shorter distances between points means less maintenance. Also fewer mountains to go up and down - saving on fuel costs.

6. Eventually, I see the government taking the rails back over again when they recover. The US government loves to destroy successful industries (i.e., rail - decades ago, auto - in the 1950's and 1960's, oil - currently, big Pharma) and reward inefficient ones (i.e., banks and autos currently).

Why Physical Gold Is Superior to Mining Stocks for Long-Term Investors

this is an excellent article that ALL investors should read and follow.

having TEN percent of the your liquid wealth in physical gold locked up in a safety deposit box or buried in a concrete bunker makes sense. this is an insurance policy for your entire wealth and your future family members inheritance.

in these times it would seem to be a no brainer. unfortunately, a common sense writer like this would be dismissed as a fanatical 'gold bug' by the popular TV commentators and people in the 'know'.

Voices About Oil

BPT has a really limited life due to the massive depletion of prudhoe bay. the current high price for BPT doesn't allow for the massive depletion. The high yield is really a mirage.

COS on the other hand is cheaply priced, has massive reserves, and is politically safe in Canada. Oil is likely to rise from these depressed levels and COS will resume their high dividends.

Obama is not likely to go after the Canadian oil sands. I think in a few years, the USA will be scrambling for what ever oil it can get and it will not have the luxury of boycotting canadian oil sands because they produce a lot of CO2 emissions versus conventional crude. Also, in a few years, Canada's conventional crude production will be low enough that they will be forced to keep most of their oil sands production at home. They are mitigating the CO2 problem by building windmills (suncor). Politically, oil sands will have few enemies in Canada.

Where Are Jim Rogers, Marc Faber and Doug Casey Investing Their Money in This Market?

I'm trading the DAG today. I like agriculture; however, DAG is just a trade.

Do Not Trust This Market

I do not trust this market either and I'm resisting the urge to jump back into it after mostly getting out back in October. It appears that the Dow could crater to 5000 or less, and gold could rise to $5,000 or more. When this happens is anyone's guess. It took FOUR years for the market of 1929 to reach its bottom - about 90% lower!!! There were suckers during every rally that trusted the market. Those who thought this was just another recession, those who believed their own BS about a new era, those who just needed a little action ...

Remember the old line - Bull markets climb a Wall of Worry and Bear markets fall on a Slope of Hope.

If hope is the only reason for buying now, then forget it. By the time this bear market is over the Dow of 2012 - 2013 might have the purchasing power of the DOW(2009) at 1000!!!!

It appears with the BO administration that government is just as incompetent as it was during the 1929 - 1934 period. Forget Roosevelt, Hoover was the real villan who launched "The New Deal". He just didn't market it as such and make it huge. Don't worry. This time BO will not make the mistake of modesty.

With the government throwing caution to the wind, you might not really see Dow 1000, but through miracle of inflation it might feel like Dow 500.

For those who read it BS and care, here is my suggested portfolio

1. 30% gold and silver - take possession
2. 20% cash - spread it out among many currencies and take possession of some of it.
3. 30% fully paid for real estate
4. 20% speculative

if your resources are limited make the speculative part cash or gold.

avoid BONDS!
avoid Stocks for now

Big Oil: Dark Skies Ahead?

Exxon is a poor choice right now. It is just overpriced and pays a very small dividend. It has held up because it is perceived as a risk free investment.
It will likely continue to hold up because of its massive balance sheet and superior management. However, when oil prices begin to move up again, Exxon will likely just stay flat.

Better to buy a depressed company that can double when oil goes back up than Exxon. None of the oil majors are anywhere near bankrupcy. So buy a depressed one, collect 5%+ and wait for oil to go back up.