YR Dog

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    • Tue Nov 11th 13:57 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      Hey, Jack the Ripper and the Easter bunny,

      Go have a drink and chill out, unbridled arrogance gets boring fast.

      Yankee Running Dog
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    • Tue Nov 11th 10:23 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      Owen,

      Spoken like a true insider... Sounds like Dave hit a nerve with you, perhaps you are the insider Shill.
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    • Tue Oct 14th 16:11 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      Nothing like a whipsaw to make us all humble. I still have my ETF shorts and am thinking along the lines of Nationalize Everything above. There still is going to another nasty downdraft. I start to feel naked without the shorts.

      Here is my dime store philosophy for the day:

      The quick and dirty cure for the financial meltdown is for the world to basically declare itself bankrupt and all debt is written off at 9 am tomorrow morning and there is a new beginning.. 95% of the worlds population would love it, 5 % that controls all the money and power would hate it, as they would have to go to end of the line. It is a shame that the fraudsters are going to make the 95% go down with them, just so they can keep their position at the top of the pile.
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    • Fri Oct 10th 18:42 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Nouriel Roubini Predicts (Surprise!) a Long Recession
      Here is the solution that 95% of the world would love but 5% of the people with money and power would hate... At 8 am tomorrow morning, all debt in the world is cancelled. Basically, the world declares bankruptcy and starts over with 6 grader lessons for everyone on how to save money next time around...Otherwise; the 95% is going to rapidly become indentured servants.
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    • Thu Oct 9th 14:14 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Deflation Changes the Rules
      If we are headed for deflation, all bets are off... Capitalism does not work well in deflation, no place to feed the greed...

      Gold is an interesting question in deflation. We cannot learn from the history of the depression as currencies were unwinding from the gold standard then and then the US government confiscated all the gold in the USA. I have heard several sources that sell gold saying that their sources have dried up in the last week, bullion is hard to get. With supply drying up, the price should be going through the roof, but is not.. Something unusual is going on here...

      I would say there are current technical factors as to why the dollar is going up, like European Banks having to raise dollar reserves to cover their dollar denominated mortgage securities (can anyone spell lumps of shi*). The Libor rate is through the roof so they have to go out on the market to buy dollars. How long this will last is anyone’s guess, but eventually the Fed pumping billions and now trillions a day out its window will have to lead to some kind of dilution of Uncle Buck.

      Will inflation or deflation win? All of the dollars pumping would say inflation; people quit buying things, losing their jobs and no credit for anything would say deflation. No wonder we all getting whipsawed everyday as deflation and inflation tear each other to pieces. Who ever wins may not leave many of us standing.
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    • Tue Oct 7th 23:49 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      Two comments today.

      One is just about all of my short ETFs are gone. I put very high limits on them, most above any previous rocket high, and almost all have been taken out. Its like watching a rocket punch up and hand you some money.. So I am now waiting for the next dead cat bounce or sucker rally or whatever it will be to load up on Ultra short ETFs.

      Two, are we going to see deflation or inflation. After reading some history from 1929 to 1933, after the banks seized up, prices of just about everything went down... Not hard to imagine if no one is buying. Seems like that mentality is starting to take hold now. I am not sure what gold will do if there is deflation now. Back in the 1930's currencies were rolling off the gold standard and then Uncle Bucky seized all the gold in the USA so we cannot look to that as a lesson. I certainly agree with the billions soon to be trillions pumping out the Fed window, there has to be a dilution of the buck and many argue for inflation. Right now, my instinct tells me that deflation is just around the corner.. and capitalism does not work well in deflation, nothing to feed the greed. This could be back to Hobbs natural state where life is "short, nasty and brutish". How long can you make a living shorting the market?
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    • Mon Oct 6th 15:30 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Global Economy: Is Deflation the Next Macro Story?
      BudH

      Don't be so sure on the min wage cut.. One of the canidates for govenor in Washington is proposing just that, a cut in the min wage.

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    • Mon Oct 6th 12:18 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Global Economy: Is Deflation the Next Macro Story?
      I can see Ben cutting interest rates to 0.0% and then realizing that he cannot cut further. I believe that Greenspan actually said that he needed to raise rates from 1.0% so that sometime in the future he could drop rates again. This would be similar to Japan on a historical note. The interesting thing to watch is will foreigners continue to buy Treasuries at 0.0% ??? They seem to be a hard sell right now. A rate increase any time soon would really seize up markets.

      Also in the 1929 to 1932 period, people simply quit spending money and prices of just about everything dropped. I think that this is a very probable scenario today.

      An interesting question is that if deflation is coming, what will happen to gold. It's hard to look to the Depression for answers there when the countries were abandoning the gold standard and US citizens were forbidden to own gold from 1933. Will gold be a safe haven independent from deflation or will its value fall like everything else?

      My intuition (not nearly as complicated and rambling as the author’s words!) tells me that deflation is just around the corner. And capitalist theory does not work very well in deflation. I know Ben spent all his academic energy figuring out how to stop deflation, let’s hope he has something up his sleeve, otherwise our sage George Bush could be correct when he said, "This sucker could go down."
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    • Mon Oct 6th 11:45 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Plummets to Six Year Low
      Maybe this is not such good news.. Are these figures based on the cooked inflation numbers given by the gov or does this mean that deflation is upon us?
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    • Mon Oct 6th 02:01 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Mark-to-Market vs. Mark-to-History
      Somehow, when a bubble was created in the housing market with low fed rates and everything went up, up up, including Banks marketed to irrational assets of the bubble, no one seemed to be complaining that marked to market was a bad idea because it was making extra money for them... So when things go south, just change the rules to make it "fair"

      I find it criminal that the SEC changes their rules on mark to market just before King Henry gets the nod to start buying bank assets with taxpayer money. Instead of moving in at fire sale prices with a chance to actually make money for the US taxpayer, they change the rules so the US taxpayer will be paying retail rates for firewood at a fire sale! Why is not someone going to jail? This will only cost the US taxpayer something like a few hundred billion dollars extra...Oh yea, I forgot, King Henry used to run one of those banks and people like Gramm and Rubin are whispering into the two candidates ears as advisors.. Sage George Bush was quoted about ten days ago as saying "This sucker could go down." Well, now it looks like it will and the bankers are going to help themselves to all the money they can on the way down..

      Don't ever call this a Rescue Package, it is a bailout.
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    • Fri Oct 3rd 21:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Bailout Pork Effect: Short Term Rally, Long Term Disaster
      I would guess one might make a case for deflation instead of inflation... Let me see, the interest rates drop to 0.0%, banks still do not come out of their bunkers, business earnings drop like a meteoroid and capital spending dries up and prices start to fall... Read your history from 1929 to 1932.

      In case you have not looked at the charts recently, all the industrials and materials are headed straight down, China has quit importing oil..


      Only time will tell the name of the game, deflation or inflation.
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    • Fri Oct 3rd 20:29 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      I have read another reason for the strong dollar. This comes from Chuck Butler from Everbank who writes a daily blog called "The Daily Pfennig"

      "One of the things we've learned this week is that the European banks are not getting to go Ollie, Ollie Oxen Free, on the holding of toxic waste debt... And since they are U.S. issued mortgage bonds, the trader that called tells me that they need to have capital reserved in U.S. dollars. Well, usually, these banks use LIBOR for this funding... But with the credit crunch going on all over, LIBOR rates have gone through the roof. So... Looking for alternative means of raising capital, the European banks have turned to the euro / dollar swap market... Selling their euro reserves and buying dollars"

      The libor rate does not seem to be coming down any time soon, so Uncle Bucky could be strong for a while. Not good for all the foreign currency ETFs I hold.
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    • Thu Oct 2nd 10:19 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      Thanks for the link to the SEC website the other day, this stuff really opens your eyes...It all starts sounding like a badly scripted cartoon. Let me see, we got to make "le petite bourgeois" feel like democracy actually is working so Round 1 in the house goes to "the people" Then quietly slip in the rule change on Marked to Market so that King Henry can make sure to rip off the taxpayer by buying illiquid lumps of SH*& at retail prices instead of what they are worth, nothing. The bill passes and everyone pats themselves on the back, democracy works, congress can work together and come up with effective legislation in a crisis and the world is saved... Or is it?. Bush is starting to look like the sage with his pronouncement last week, "This sucker could go down"

      One sidebar on the marked to market rule change. When cheap fed money fueled a huge bubble and prices were skyrocketing, the banks were not complaining about the marked to market, it overvalued their assets and they were happy. When it goes the other way, time out, rule change and now we can make the US taxpayer buy up our lumps of sh$# at overvalued prices... Why is not someone going to jail? I mean after all, its just a few billion (probably about 200!) of taxpayer money.

      Does anyone know a good liquor stock to invest in, I need a drink!
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    • Thu Sep 18th 14:10 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      I have been enjoying this post since March. The comments seem to fit into my way of seeing the world, very refreshing. Enough of the intro, I'll cut to the chase.. I'll ask three questions

      You brought up a very interesting "incident" with CNY. It dropped from about 36 to 30 in one hour with no movement on the Yuan. Is this the result of some derivatives gone bad or one of the financial backers choking on its own black hole?

      One of the money market funds is now at 97 cents. Is this more derivatives going down a hole... With so much cash in money market funds, do you think they are at risk?

      TIP is slowly going down hill. I bought some in Feb at 107 and have been pleasantly surprised with the yield. In seven months of monthly dividends, the annual yield is at 7.78%. Not bad for AAA gov bonds. Maybe somewhere in the government data banks, there is a real number on inflation?

      Yankee Running Dog
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    • Wed Jun 11th 22:24 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Low ''Bernanke-Beta'' Investing: Procter & Gamble and Raytheon
      What everyone misses on PG is the fact that they have been increasing their dividend for over 50 years now and for about the last 10 years the dividend increase has been around 10-12 %. Where else can you get a 10% raise every year, year after year.
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