Gary A

Analyzing the U.S.'s Four Largest Banks

Is the author saying that the banks will straighten their course? I don't see 20 percent down and old fashion lending coming back, do you, FWI?


On Nov 08 09:24 AM fwi wrote:

> It is interesting that I read this well written article and drew
> the completely opposite conclusion. I believe that the banks will
> not straighten their course. They have already forgotten the lessons
> of just one year ago. They do not want to be in the lending/deposit
> business anymore because of the dreaded loan loss provisions.
>
> THey much rather make their money trading with the free discount
> window money they can access from the Fed by Pretending to be a bank
> holding company. And I am not just referring to Goldman Sachs.

Four Signs that the Recession Continues

I believe deflation is still the problem. Buffett and Wells Fargo may be unpleasantly surprised. Americans have no wage inflation. And I believe demand will start to nip at asset inflation.

Fact is, Wells is nuts betting this way. And if unemployment is a leading indicator as I think, houses won't go up that much.

Perhaps strategic defaults will teach the ponzi banks by slapping them on the hand with a very big cane. But I see the administration is still pushing some no money down loans. Only two idiots like Geithner and Summers would allow such nonsense.

Government Figures Show No Spending or Income Collapse Since Crisis Began

I agree with you. I am concerned that tax coffers are depleted, people are out of work in droves, savings rates are up, teens aren't spending, credit is drying up massively, by billions, yet we are to believe that spending is flat. This should be investigated because if spending is flat then I can guarantee you so is the world itself!


On Nov 08 05:12 PM tripleblack wrote:

> Its time to ignore government statistics - from EVERY government,
> but particularly ours.
>
> The idea that we have millions and millions of folks out of work,
> but their income levels have not gone down is ludicrous.
>
> Why this does not trigger an instant investigation of the statistical
> regimen (and source) can only be explained by the fact that it IS,
> after all, a pack of foxes we have hired to guard the hen house.
>
>
> LOL, but this does not mean we should believe the reports from the
> hen house that "all is fine, laying the same number and quality of
> golden eggs as last year".
>
> On Nov 08 04:59 PM The Geoffster wrote:

Today's Employment Report: Focus on the Long Term Trends

The author has a conflicted view. First he says 1. that the job creation will be slow, up to 10 years. Then he says 2. the stock market is good at anticipating a turnaround. Then he says 3. that buy and hold is dead. If 1 and 3 are true, I don't think that 2 is true at all, and we could have another credit driven downturn.

That is why I don't think they want to break up the biggest banks. They are Bernanke's best bond customers. That can't go on indefinately, can it?

Accounting for Losses at BofA and Fannie

What conspiracy are you talking about? How about the Robert Rubin, Fed conspiracy to bring off balance sheet banking to the shores of the United States? That is a conspiracy. How about the BIS looking the other way when off balance sheet banking was allowed? That is a conspiracy.

How about raiding the treasury of the United States, by Paulson, Geithner, the Fed and Barney Frank? That is a conspiracy.

How about not reigning in the too big to fail banks with regulation? That appears to be the newest conspiracy.

How about protecting the hedge fund crony bondholders of Larry Summers with Barney's weak bill that pays the creditors and stuffs the taxpayers? That is a conspiracy in progress.

So, please tell me what conspiracy don't you believe in here?


On Nov 06 08:24 PM 7footMoose wrote:

> Mr Hempton is a thoughtful analyst but misses the point. The historic
> loan losses experienced by the bank coupled with the historic loan
> losses experienced by the entire financial industry set the tone
> for expected loan losses. This in turn allows a bank to establish
> a loan loss reserve, which is then reviewed by management, the outside
> auditors and the federal examiners. The concurrence of these parties
> is essential to the process. Historically it has been the Feds who
> have insisted that the banks not salt away excess reserves for the
> future while understating current period taxable income. The idea
> that this is an arbitrary decision by the banks in an effort to hide
> potential losses only holds water if you are a hard core conspirascist
> convinced that all parties are complicit and involved. There are
> a lot of dumbbells out there but the conspiracy theory does not hold.

Accounting for Losses at BofA and Fannie

Yeah just wait till the new bank capital requirements hit. And hit they will. I would suggest that the banks are not lending that the big banks are not lending. So if they are so good for the economy, er, well, no, they are good for the bond market. They get bailouts, and they buy the sorry bonds of an over extended government. That is their only useful purpose right now.

They won't help main street. They don't have to.


On Nov 06 02:50 PM bbro wrote:

> this is garbage...BAC has 914 billion in loans....50 to 80 billion
> quarterly
> loss rate is absurd...No facts to substantiate...This fans the ignorance
> that prevails on some blogs regarding accrual accounting
> versus fair value accounting..BAC is nowhere nears like a zombie
>
> bank.There are dozens out and they are populated in the small banks
>
> undercapitalized,low loan loss reserves,too high chargeoff rate,
> and
> most importantly too low preprovision earnings....

How Warren Buffett Is Smarter than the G20

I still think deflation is a big threat, in which case Buffett's railroads will remain empty and the United States will be Japan.

Only, in Japan the people themselves are solvent. I would say US deleveraging will outlast Buffett's days on this earth. I hope I am wrong.

Consumer Credit Down - But Does It Show Deleveraging?

We have tax receipts tanking, defaults on credit cards rising, big unemployment, little demand for gasoline, yet spending and credit remain flat?

Someone is lying. Someone is fixing numbers. All the above cannot be true.

Regulation Must Be a Problem - Get Rid of It

This one? www.gmo.com/websitecon... Quite interesting reading. Thanks.


On Nov 07 01:36 AM robert.b.ferguson wrote:

> Gary A: Greetings. Couldn't agree more. In previous posts I have
> frequently advocated reinstating Glass/Steagal act. Did you get a
> chance to read Grantham's quarterly letter and the accompanying tick
> delayed piece? It's a real eye opener which I highly recommend.

Consumer Credit Decline Continues

What I don't understand is how credit decline can be falling, tax receipts in states can be falling, yet spending remains flat? I would like someone to look into those numbers because they must be manipulated. It doesn't all seem to add up.

Richmond Fed: GSEs Encourage Mortgage Defaults

Recourse loans are a sure way to slavery. If the bank can't make a loan that is sound, considering the possibility of credit and economic booms and busts, then they shouldn't make loans. I would rather see the 30 year loan go away than the institution of an evil, and I mean evil, recourse era.


On Nov 06 02:38 PM woollyB wrote:

> I've been waiting for more coverage/recognition of this issue. The
> crisis will be at fever pitch when millions of people decide they
> are so far underwater that they don't care about the moral obligation
> to repay and don't care if their credit scores are ruined. The deed/rent
> plan Fannie just announced (as well as Wells Fargo's new "plans")
> indicates that the reckoning is drawing ever nearer.

Regulation Must Be a Problem - Get Rid of It

I want the banks that hold my money to be like utilities. Let the GS's of the world and the Merrill's of the world just gamble with hedge money. I would suggest that more regulation of banks and less regulation of other business is what is needed. dontpaycreditcards.com...

UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS ARE A FRAUD

My view is that unemployment is becoming a leading indicator. It is so if jobs don't come back. Also, I wish someone would look into the bogus spending numbers. It is reported that consumers are dropping billions in credit and yet it isn't reflected in the spending numbers. This seems like a joke.

I noticed that Pres Obama doesn't have a smile much these days. I would say that his advisors are screwing with him and at some point he will say enough is enough. But does he have the balls to stop the Geithner giveaways, mole from the Fed that he is?

Consumer Credit: Dreadful

It is my theory that it is more important to shop than pay off credit cards. I believe so strongly that this is what the government wants that I wrote an article about it, lol: hubpages.com/hub/It-Is...

The Fed and Fannie Mae: Throwing Money Down a Black Hole

This realization that "safe" loans are defaulting should make investors, who were burned by MBS before, doubly nervous to ever get into that market again. We have the possibility of much higher interest rates. And if we are irresponsible enough the 30 year mortgage could go away. We are stuffing them under the rug now as it is.