Gary A's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/166473/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/178051-harry-winstons-q3-sales-plunge?source=feed#comment-805386 805386 Mon, 14 Dec 2009 14:23:18 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/177686-bonds-maybe-loaning-money-at-less-than-4-for-30-years-isn-t-a-good-idea?source=feed#comment-803776 803776

On Dec 11 09:17 AM Economic Disconnect wrote:

> Gary,
> I am a huge Christmas fan so I am guilty as charged! Still I buy
> with cash, no credit, so there is some lesson there.
>
> All,
> great ideas on the long bond. Thanks for the discussion.]]> Sun, 13 Dec 2009 11:43:07 -0500

On Dec 11 09:17 AM Economic Disconnect wrote:

> Gary,
> I am a huge Christmas fan so I am guilty as charged! Still I buy
> with cash, no credit, so there is some lesson there.
>
> All,
> great ideas on the long bond. Thanks for the discussion.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177686-bonds-maybe-loaning-money-at-less-than-4-for-30-years-isn-t-a-good-idea?source=feed#comment-801004 801004 Fri, 11 Dec 2009 03:17:47 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/177268-richard-russell-downturn-will-be-vicious?source=feed#comment-801003 801003

On Dec 10 10:38 AM Rainmaker986 wrote:

> After the Panic of 1907 came WW1. It took WW2 to really get us out
> of the Great Depression. What do you suppose it will take to clear
> up this mess? War does take peoples mind off of economic collapse
> does it not? After WWI came the "Roaring 20's. Pent up demand from
> years of rationing during WW2 fueled a booming economy. Back to the
> future?]]> Fri, 11 Dec 2009 03:15:16 -0500

On Dec 10 10:38 AM Rainmaker986 wrote:

> After the Panic of 1907 came WW1. It took WW2 to really get us out
> of the Great Depression. What do you suppose it will take to clear
> up this mess? War does take peoples mind off of economic collapse
> does it not? After WWI came the "Roaring 20's. Pent up demand from
> years of rationing during WW2 fueled a booming economy. Back to the
> future?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177234-what-is-really-happening-in-retail?source=feed#comment-800993 800993

On Dec 10 11:17 AM bricki wrote:

> A fairly valued Yuan would actually be good for the US economy because
> it makes our own production more competitive, improving the balance
> of trade and creating value added jobs in the US.]]> Fri, 11 Dec 2009 02:47:49 -0500

On Dec 10 11:17 AM bricki wrote:

> A fairly valued Yuan would actually be good for the US economy because
> it makes our own production more competitive, improving the balance
> of trade and creating value added jobs in the US.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/176855-the-destruction-of-the-dollar-it-s-nearly-inevitable?source=feed#comment-799247 799247
I guess we will see.


On Dec 09 09:44 AM Johnny Oxygen wrote:

> The Nine Steps of Hyperinflation
>
> 1. BOOM. Markets rise. Creation of asset bubbles.
> 2. BUST: Market Crash. Inflation goes negative. Central Banks overreact
> and cut interest rates. Money injections.
> 3. BOND BOOM: Government debt balloons. Debt issuance soars.
> 4. STABILIZATION: Stocks and commodities recover. Bonds stabilize.
> Volatility declines.
>
> YOU ARE HERE
>
> 5. BOND BUST: Inflation goes positive. Bond buyers pull out. Central
> Banks step in and buy bonds (Quantative Easing). This gradually crowds
> out and scares off real buyers.
> 6. CURRENCY CRISIS: Money flees inflated currency, at first a trickle
> then a flood.
> 7. INFLATION SOARS: Quantitive Easing. Currency weakness pushes prices.
> Inflation accelerates. Commodities rise. Inflation reaches pre-bust
> highs.
> 8. POINT of NO RETURN: Central Banks are slow to contract money supply.
> Government continues to spend more. Deficits continue to grow. Real
> economy is still slow. Prices spiral.
> 9. CURRENCY DESTRUCTION: Double digit inflation. Currency devaluation.
> Bond market crash. Inflation goes logarithmic. Confidence in money
> is destroyed. Eventually even monetary contraction will not help
> as demand for cash evaporates.]]> Thu, 10 Dec 2009 00:27:15 -0500
I guess we will see.


On Dec 09 09:44 AM Johnny Oxygen wrote:

> The Nine Steps of Hyperinflation
>
> 1. BOOM. Markets rise. Creation of asset bubbles.
> 2. BUST: Market Crash. Inflation goes negative. Central Banks overreact
> and cut interest rates. Money injections.
> 3. BOND BOOM: Government debt balloons. Debt issuance soars.
> 4. STABILIZATION: Stocks and commodities recover. Bonds stabilize.
> Volatility declines.
>
> YOU ARE HERE
>
> 5. BOND BUST: Inflation goes positive. Bond buyers pull out. Central
> Banks step in and buy bonds (Quantative Easing). This gradually crowds
> out and scares off real buyers.
> 6. CURRENCY CRISIS: Money flees inflated currency, at first a trickle
> then a flood.
> 7. INFLATION SOARS: Quantitive Easing. Currency weakness pushes prices.
> Inflation accelerates. Commodities rise. Inflation reaches pre-bust
> highs.
> 8. POINT of NO RETURN: Central Banks are slow to contract money supply.
> Government continues to spend more. Deficits continue to grow. Real
> economy is still slow. Prices spiral.
> 9. CURRENCY DESTRUCTION: Double digit inflation. Currency devaluation.
> Bond market crash. Inflation goes logarithmic. Confidence in money
> is destroyed. Eventually even monetary contraction will not help
> as demand for cash evaporates.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177178-consumer-credit-the-crunch-goes-on?source=feed#comment-797423 797423 hubpages.com/hub/retai...]]> Wed, 09 Dec 2009 03:56:21 -0500 hubpages.com/hub/retai...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/176855-the-destruction-of-the-dollar-it-s-nearly-inevitable?source=feed#comment-797421 797421

On Dec 09 01:45 AM Joe Shareholder wrote:

> Couple of things.
>
> 1. If you believe deflation is still ahead, there's no reason to
> worry about the US Dollar collapse. It's still unclear whether the
> Fed's shell game will actually work. Gold is just as risky when
> you're buying at 1200/ounce in my opinion.
>
> 2. You didn't elaborate on Congress and Obama's spending. There's
> no guarantee these efforts wil produce anything long term. if the
> ditch digging is simply throwing money at the problem rather than
> creating investments, then it's useless and won't help grow the economy.
> Just a bridge to deflation.
>
> 3. The US debt to GDP ratio is only half of what Japan's is. It's
> right in the middle of the pack.
>
> 4. The Fed's cheap and easy money is getting thrown around the world
> from a helicopter but is simply creating asset and debt bubbles.
> There's no guarantee inflation will get traction if and when these
> bubbles burst.
>
> Bottom line, it's too early to worry about inflation.]]> Wed, 09 Dec 2009 03:47:07 -0500

On Dec 09 01:45 AM Joe Shareholder wrote:

> Couple of things.
>
> 1. If you believe deflation is still ahead, there's no reason to
> worry about the US Dollar collapse. It's still unclear whether the
> Fed's shell game will actually work. Gold is just as risky when
> you're buying at 1200/ounce in my opinion.
>
> 2. You didn't elaborate on Congress and Obama's spending. There's
> no guarantee these efforts wil produce anything long term. if the
> ditch digging is simply throwing money at the problem rather than
> creating investments, then it's useless and won't help grow the economy.
> Just a bridge to deflation.
>
> 3. The US debt to GDP ratio is only half of what Japan's is. It's
> right in the middle of the pack.
>
> 4. The Fed's cheap and easy money is getting thrown around the world
> from a helicopter but is simply creating asset and debt bubbles.
> There's no guarantee inflation will get traction if and when these
> bubbles burst.
>
> Bottom line, it's too early to worry about inflation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177157-simon-properties-prime-outlets-buy-could-spell-end-of-general-growth-deal?source=feed#comment-797356 797356 Wed, 09 Dec 2009 00:46:17 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/177149-in-defense-of-housing-as-an-investment?source=feed#comment-797351 797351 Wed, 09 Dec 2009 00:40:14 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/176855-the-destruction-of-the-dollar-it-s-nearly-inevitable?source=feed#comment-797338 797338
I would say this inflationist argument is baloney. But you can prove me wrong Ray. I just believe that demand for loans drives the increase in the money supply and there is no demand for loans.


On Dec 08 10:26 PM ray b wrote:

> SUPPLY AND DEMAND You print more money. If the demand is there for
> it, the value stays strong. If there is no demand for the dollar,
> it declines in value. Its not just supply that determines value,
> its also demand. If you think of the dollar as gold, the government
> can print all they want as long as people still want gold. Even at
> $10,000 per ounce. I know I will take all I can get. Dont pay me
> in Euros or Renminbi...I want the greenbacks!]]> Wed, 09 Dec 2009 00:02:56 -0500
I would say this inflationist argument is baloney. But you can prove me wrong Ray. I just believe that demand for loans drives the increase in the money supply and there is no demand for loans.


On Dec 08 10:26 PM ray b wrote:

> SUPPLY AND DEMAND You print more money. If the demand is there for
> it, the value stays strong. If there is no demand for the dollar,
> it declines in value. Its not just supply that determines value,
> its also demand. If you think of the dollar as gold, the government
> can print all they want as long as people still want gold. Even at
> $10,000 per ounce. I know I will take all I can get. Dont pay me
> in Euros or Renminbi...I want the greenbacks!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/176855-the-destruction-of-the-dollar-it-s-nearly-inevitable?source=feed#comment-797220 797220
Scarcity comes from lack of turnover of the dollar. If there is no demand for loans, the dollar turns over less. The fallacy of Larry Summers thinking is that all the economy needs is a sufficient supply of loans. We don't have that yet, but more importantly, we don't have demand for loans. So there will be fewer dollars in circulation.

Tell me author, how the dollar is doomed in a deflationary environment? ]]> Tue, 08 Dec 2009 20:37:07 -0500
Scarcity comes from lack of turnover of the dollar. If there is no demand for loans, the dollar turns over less. The fallacy of Larry Summers thinking is that all the economy needs is a sufficient supply of loans. We don't have that yet, but more importantly, we don't have demand for loans. So there will be fewer dollars in circulation.

Tell me author, how the dollar is doomed in a deflationary environment? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/176927-earth-to-ge-boost-your-dividend?source=feed#comment-795612 795612
On Dec 07 04:08 PM Rich E wrote:

> GE owes bondholders $435 Billion, has another $248 Billion in current
> obligations. GE owes creditors $683 Billion. GE has a credit rating
> by Egan Jones of two slots above "junk." I would be careful buying
> GE.]]> Tue, 08 Dec 2009 02:36:56 -0500
On Dec 07 04:08 PM Rich E wrote:

> GE owes bondholders $435 Billion, has another $248 Billion in current
> obligations. GE owes creditors $683 Billion. GE has a credit rating
> by Egan Jones of two slots above "junk." I would be careful buying
> GE.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177005-s-p-better-returns-for-quality-dividend-growth-stocks-in-2010?source=feed#comment-795610 795610 Tue, 08 Dec 2009 02:32:43 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/176798-financial-crisis-treating-the-symptoms-isn-t-enough?source=feed#comment-795604 795604 Tue, 08 Dec 2009 02:21:35 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/175874-monetary-inflation-index-scores-new-high?source=feed#comment-787618 787618

On Dec 01 07:06 PM rick12345 wrote:

> If, as many are anticipating, the market is about to correct then
> 2 things will happen. The first event will be a flight to treasuries,
> sparking a rally in the USD. Secondly, the gold price will fall as
> investors sell gold and move their position into dollar denominated
> assets such as housing, bonds and cash.
> Unfortunately you cannot have it both ways ladies and gentleman.]]> Wed, 02 Dec 2009 22:35:52 -0500

On Dec 01 07:06 PM rick12345 wrote:

> If, as many are anticipating, the market is about to correct then
> 2 things will happen. The first event will be a flight to treasuries,
> sparking a rally in the USD. Secondly, the gold price will fall as
> investors sell gold and move their position into dollar denominated
> assets such as housing, bonds and cash.
> Unfortunately you cannot have it both ways ladies and gentleman.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175874-monetary-inflation-index-scores-new-high?source=feed#comment-787616 787616

On Dec 01 08:47 PM Tempo dulu wrote:

> Good article and I agree this is a precursor to CP inflation. Hardly
> surprising, though, given low interest rates, huge public spending
> and debt issuances, and, of course, the weakening dollar. All point
> to inflation picking up big time in 2010.]]> Wed, 02 Dec 2009 22:34:08 -0500

On Dec 01 08:47 PM Tempo dulu wrote:

> Good article and I agree this is a precursor to CP inflation. Hardly
> surprising, though, given low interest rates, huge public spending
> and debt issuances, and, of course, the weakening dollar. All point
> to inflation picking up big time in 2010.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/176034-how-banks-actually-make-more-from-bad-credit?source=feed#comment-787441 787441 dontpaycreditcards.com


On Dec 02 12:53 AM William Legrand wrote:

> No matter how a bank stacks the credit card deck with high interest
> rates and late fees, individual cardholders are fully responsible
> for accruing credit card debt in the first place. In general, there's
> a simple solution for the cardholder to stack the deck against the
> bank: Pay off the balance in full every month. That way it makes
> no difference what the interest rate and late fees are, because the
> cardholder never pays them! Better yet, paying off in full means
> the cardholder gets an interest free loan while their money can keep
> earning interest in a bank account. Yes, this approach requires
> discipline and responsible behavior, being careful to avoid the temptation
> to buy, buy, buy on impulse. But once the cardholder gets into the
> habit of paying off that balance every month and realizes how much
> farther their income goes, it becomes an addictive and very rewarding
> habit.]]> Wed, 02 Dec 2009 20:15:30 -0500 dontpaycreditcards.com


On Dec 02 12:53 AM William Legrand wrote:

> No matter how a bank stacks the credit card deck with high interest
> rates and late fees, individual cardholders are fully responsible
> for accruing credit card debt in the first place. In general, there's
> a simple solution for the cardholder to stack the deck against the
> bank: Pay off the balance in full every month. That way it makes
> no difference what the interest rate and late fees are, because the
> cardholder never pays them! Better yet, paying off in full means
> the cardholder gets an interest free loan while their money can keep
> earning interest in a bank account. Yes, this approach requires
> discipline and responsible behavior, being careful to avoid the temptation
> to buy, buy, buy on impulse. But once the cardholder gets into the
> habit of paying off that balance every month and realizes how much
> farther their income goes, it becomes an addictive and very rewarding
> habit.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175878-meritage-homes-goes-into-hibernation?source=feed#comment-787436 787436 Wed, 02 Dec 2009 20:12:35 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/175327-u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-why-you-can-t-trust-them?source=feed#comment-784574 784574 hubpages.com/hub/retai... ]]> Tue, 01 Dec 2009 12:25:55 -0500 hubpages.com/hub/retai... ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175874-monetary-inflation-index-scores-new-high?source=feed#comment-784561 784561
Wages aren't going up so it won't happen that inflation hits our economy anytime soon. If it does people will stop buying, driving, and doing anything.

Deflation is a raise, while inflation is going to kill the housing market. ]]> Tue, 01 Dec 2009 12:16:25 -0500
Wages aren't going up so it won't happen that inflation hits our economy anytime soon. If it does people will stop buying, driving, and doing anything.

Deflation is a raise, while inflation is going to kill the housing market. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175885-consumer-driven-deflation-not-even-close?source=feed#comment-784554 784554
As an example, milk went to 5 dollars per gallon and people quit buying. When gas goes to 4 dollars per gallon people will quit driving.

We are deleveraging. That is highly deflationary. So it is a race. I don't think the government can win this race. Housing is a key factor in making inflation work and housing is dead in the water.]]> Tue, 01 Dec 2009 12:10:56 -0500
As an example, milk went to 5 dollars per gallon and people quit buying. When gas goes to 4 dollars per gallon people will quit driving.

We are deleveraging. That is highly deflationary. So it is a race. I don't think the government can win this race. Housing is a key factor in making inflation work and housing is dead in the water.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175763-the-fsb-s-big-bad-30?source=feed#comment-783093 783093 Mon, 30 Nov 2009 15:02:43 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/175634-the-debt-crisis-is-going-public?source=feed#comment-781884 781884
So much rosy talk, so little time.


On Nov 29 05:55 PM bbro wrote:

> The Household debt service payments plus government debt service
> payments - personal savings is 8.65% of GDP the lowest level since
>
> 1995.]]> Sun, 29 Nov 2009 18:31:20 -0500
So much rosy talk, so little time.


On Nov 29 05:55 PM bbro wrote:

> The Household debt service payments plus government debt service
> payments - personal savings is 8.65% of GDP the lowest level since
>
> 1995.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175634-the-debt-crisis-is-going-public?source=feed#comment-781855 781855 Sun, 29 Nov 2009 17:50:34 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/175443-3-housing-charts-that-look-less-bad?source=feed#comment-780947 780947 globaleconomicanalysis...]]> Sat, 28 Nov 2009 21:02:58 -0500 globaleconomicanalysis...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175545-the-dubai-default-and-oil-prices?source=feed#comment-780584 780584 Sat, 28 Nov 2009 10:20:07 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/175431-meredith-whitney-vs-john-paulson-on-bofa-they-re-both-wrong?source=feed#comment-779230 779230 Fri, 27 Nov 2009 03:49:53 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/175487-will-dubai-s-standstill-spark-a-reversal-in-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-779229 779229
Massive short squeeze on the dollar could happen. This could be a massive unwind predicted by Roubini. ]]> Fri, 27 Nov 2009 03:48:21 -0500
Massive short squeeze on the dollar could happen. This could be a massive unwind predicted by Roubini. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175293-why-the-dollar-is-continuing-lower?source=feed#comment-778091 778091

On Nov 25 10:52 AM derryl wrote:

> Savers/investors have boatloads of money and spenders have too much
> debt and diminishing employment prospects. The Fed's dual mandate
> is price stability and maximum employment. Reduced domestic spending
> puts deflationary pressure on CPI prices while a shrinking dollar
> adds inflationary pressures on imports like oil.
>
> Monetary easing in the form of low interest rates is the standard
> policy to increase credit and spending and stabilize prices in a
> deflationary environment. Increased spending also increases employment.
> So both aspects of the Fed's mandate suggest continuation of the
> monetary easing policies.
>
> China's yuan is tied to the dollar so inasmuch as consumer goods
> are imported from China, a lower dollar will not affect CPI prices.
> America's other major import, oil, would trend higher with a falling
> dollar. As oil is an input into virtually all prices, mainly due
> to the need to transport goods, higher oil will put inflationary
> pressure on CPI prices. Higher input costs and tight domestic spending
> will squeeze profit margins for US producers and retailers. But
> squeezed profits absorb some of the oil price inflation so CPI prices
> will not necessarily follow oil up point for point.
>
> On balance I don't think the Fed has much choice but to continue
> its monetary easing policies, and quite possibly expand them, in
> the face of the secular deflationary trend. Interest rates are going
> nowhere "for an extended time".]]> Thu, 26 Nov 2009 00:44:38 -0500

On Nov 25 10:52 AM derryl wrote:

> Savers/investors have boatloads of money and spenders have too much
> debt and diminishing employment prospects. The Fed's dual mandate
> is price stability and maximum employment. Reduced domestic spending
> puts deflationary pressure on CPI prices while a shrinking dollar
> adds inflationary pressures on imports like oil.
>
> Monetary easing in the form of low interest rates is the standard
> policy to increase credit and spending and stabilize prices in a
> deflationary environment. Increased spending also increases employment.
> So both aspects of the Fed's mandate suggest continuation of the
> monetary easing policies.
>
> China's yuan is tied to the dollar so inasmuch as consumer goods
> are imported from China, a lower dollar will not affect CPI prices.
> America's other major import, oil, would trend higher with a falling
> dollar. As oil is an input into virtually all prices, mainly due
> to the need to transport goods, higher oil will put inflationary
> pressure on CPI prices. Higher input costs and tight domestic spending
> will squeeze profit margins for US producers and retailers. But
> squeezed profits absorb some of the oil price inflation so CPI prices
> will not necessarily follow oil up point for point.
>
> On balance I don't think the Fed has much choice but to continue
> its monetary easing policies, and quite possibly expand them, in
> the face of the secular deflationary trend. Interest rates are going
> nowhere "for an extended time".]]>