Gary A

FDIC Keeping Mum About Real Estate Auction Results

Cramer said 7. I don't like the guy but he may be right.


On Nov 22 08:30 PM Andrew Butter wrote:

> Interesting article, that's a new take on a "public" auction, designed
> to attract the widest selection of buyers possible.
>
> By the way; according to Mark Hanson in 2007 and 2008 about 1.2 million
> homes went through final (third stage) foreclosure (that's the one
> they kick you out), to July 2009 there had been about 550,000. <br/>
>
> That's 1.75 million so far.
>
> They are running at about 80,000 a month now so lets say another
> 400,000 by the end of 2009 = 2.15 Million.
>
> You reckon 50% of 10% of 55 million will go all the way by the time
> this is over, that's 2.75 Million.
>
> I think you might be light.
>
> More like Six:
>
> seekingalpha.com/artic...

Conspicuous Correlation: October 2009 Discretionary Retail Sales and U.S. Home Prices

A couple of issues. First, sales receipts are tanking in all states. So I really don't trust the government numbers on retail sales at all.

Also, since people are deleveraging through walking away from credit cards and through walking away from house loans, they may have a little more money.

But I still don't trust the government numbers.

Reacting to Roubini's Predictions: The Economy, Dollar Carry-Trade, Housing

But the carry trade will be stopped by fear and a rise in the dollar. I see both commercial RE and the bubble of the carry trade as being factors that could cause a massive crash. Banks still have to hunker down to the new rules coming in the face of bad charts about real estate: hubpages.com/hub/We-Al...

Property Values Set to Fall from Bubble Peak to Long-Run Average

The only reason this is not declining faster is because of the no money down loans that are being made. I would suggest that this is making houses too expensive compared to historical average.

Face it people, without tax credits and no money down there is no housing market.

The 'Own Your Own Home' Policy: A Relatively New Thing

Wow, if FHA bombs and Fannie and Freddie mortgages are being purchased by the Federal Reserve at 100 percent, what does that say about the possibility that America will no longer be able to afford the 30 year mortgage. Then what for house prices, piggy bank equity, and economic recovery?

Case-Shiller's Recent Strength: It's Not Just Seasonality

This is the problem. The government props up the market. Yet companies want US workers to work for less or they ship jobs overseas. The government cannot have it both ways. Either they need to let the cost of living collapse and allow wages to reflect world reality, or they will continue to prop up housing and watch jobs leave.

So I would say our government is in great danger of outsmarting itself by supporting a phony housing demand.

'Improved' Housing Starts May Impede Recovery

Housing starts shmousing starts. The real issue is that option arms start resetting in September, this month! People will have to pay 5 to 10 times what they normally pay in a mortgage. This will mean instant non payment. These reset over the next few years and will bloat inventory and be more hurtful than subprime.