Fear

15 Comments

    • Cutting Intrepid Potash on Quick 25% Gain [view article]
      If you check the forward P/E it shows 16 and to think you sold mark? If you check the bloggers on IPI onespacetraveler states his case as the following. IPI reported 1st quarter as a blow away quarter and they quintupled sales and sold more potash than had been expected to sell for the entire year of 2008. Now the break even point for IPI is 149. per there conference call. IPI received it's first quarter sales from Sept to Dec of 2007 which averaged approx 200 dollars pnt. That is a 55 dollar net. Now Potash is being delivered by IPI for approx 640 pnt. 640 - 145 = 495 dollar net compared to there blow out first quarter of 55 dollars net. And you can see why onespacetraveler has stated on his blogs for IPI the end of year could IPI be selling for 150 to 200 per share? Jun 19 07:42 AM
    • Cutting Intrepid Potash on Quick 25% Gain [view article]
      You can never go wrong taking a profit. You have some valid points most people don't understand. 1. Your point you made is you had picked a target price you would sell and you sold. This point is what I personally do I pick a point and then re=evaluate. IPI hit high and started a pull back you took your profits good job. 2. You left a little in the company. I have found this always to be a good idea if you like the company that way you still follow the company. 3. You picked MOS which I also own like MON and AGU. You are staying in a winning Sector and I can't say enough for this fact your best point of all. 4. Picking sectors and then picking better positioned stocks in same sector. I like AGU because of the P/E which is half of MOS and POT. I will add about 4,000 shares of IPI on Friday. I saw a post where IPI has been at it's high on the last 3 fridays so If it keeps to form I will by at about 6:45 to 8:00 Calif time. 5. Now you have posted you like the ag sector. Trader Mark will you please address this issue please the Dec 20 Calls I know for a fact Those calls are being bought up by 1 person heavy. Can you please explain how the DEC 20 calls at 60 which were bought up by my friend at 3.40 to 3.40. Do you like the Dec 20 calls at 70 and if IPI goes to 100 in early Nov do you sell or hold closer to dec 20th. thanks Jun 12 09:02 AM
    • Starting a Position in Intrepid Potash [view article]
      Adesia you are a woman correct I mean with a hug I don't hug guys. Jun 10 02:09 AM
    • No Safe Havens - Cramer's Stop Trading! (6/6/08) [view article]
      I want to give credit to supercoug for giving me the pick CLR and BUCY and I can't remember the person who gave me the pick IPHS. But thanks for all the people on the IPI message board for giving me those 3 picks the othere 2 I had bought on my own research. Have a niece day again this is giving due where due is required Jun 08 03:38 PM
    • No Safe Havens - Cramer's Stop Trading! (6/6/08) [view article]
      Jim Cramer is spot on with IPI and NBR I do own both and IPI from day one. IPI on it's first conference call stated IPI had sold more Potash in there first quarter than was expected to be sold for the entire year. That is why Friday DOW down 400 IPI up 2.50 approx. Monday if DOW is up 100 IPI could be 55 to 58 but of course that is if and only a guess. NBR is an awsome stock here are some just as good NBR/CLR/BUCY/IPHS I only buy stocks at this time that are at 52 week highs if the fundamentals support the stock going up another 50 percent and on those 5 stocks IPI NBR CLR BUCY and IPHS they will INHO Jun 08 03:35 PM
    • Starting a Position in Intrepid Potash [view article]
      Everyone bashes Jim Cramer but I think he is very smart. I have watched his show but now I watch Fox business channel. Jim Cramer has said he has made mistakes and anyone who can admit they make mistakes shows me he has compassion. Jim does care about the little investor also if you listen to Jim he will tell you his thought process on the stocks he picks and his approach is a great approach. He has to rate every sector and personally I couldn't make a case for some sectors and I can't fake it. Jim Cramer is a person I believe has forgotten more about stocks and mutual funds than I will ever know and I study stocks 7 days a week for over 25 years. Jun 07 03:05 AM
    • Starting a Position in Intrepid Potash [view article]
      Pooramerican: If I may so bold to post to your question of TNH. Today we saw the DOW down 400 points and TNH has a $16.00 or 11% Dividend it pays. Like POT and MOS they use natural gas to make some of there fertilisers now TNH products are different than IPI. But natural gas will rise and so will there product TNH has a great product and just like Potash which is skyrocketing Natural gas isn't expected to jump that much. Now natural gas has risen but not to the extent that it affects THN and THN is a great company. In my opinion if you want a dividend paying stock THN is the one. It is in the AG business and you can't go wrong with any in the ag sector as long as food and ethanol is going strong. TNH is a balance to a portfolio just like adding MON or dupont I hope this helps Jun 07 02:37 AM
    • Starting a Position in Intrepid Potash [view article]
      Well I believe we all owe you a great big hug for your excellant article and your perfect call. DOW down 400 pts and IPI up over 2 dollars what a call and you hit the mark. IPI in my opinion will hit 75 after next earnings call. IPI sold more potash than they had been expected to for the entire year. We who all understand the magnitude of that feat for we are true investors with our own hard earned money. Take the train it is just flueling up with potash and American Farmers come to us for IPI sells only to america and doesn't have shipping costs like Canada. Jun 07 02:22 AM
    • Starting a Position in Intrepid Potash [view article]
      Your analysis was excellant. Plus not to mention they are hiring more people. In an article I had read they were looking to employ 100 new people at there carlsbad mine. This stock looks like a winner for the next 5 years. If you noticed there P/E really isn't correct as posted on yahoo IPI front page. You can really only count the 0.27 cents from there first earnings. if the 2.24 you mentioned were to be an accurate discription. Divide the price today of 48.65 by 2.24 and you get a P/E of 21.72. Because they just listed and are a new company by there website. Take a selling price of IPI at 90.00 and divide it buy 2.24 you get a p/e of 40.12 that is a little less than POT and a little less than MOS if I remember correct. But with the summer comming and solar evaporation at it's highest and your spot of 1000. pnt. you can see min this company will be is 90 dollars by mid summer or after 2nd quarter earning report. Now with your figure of 70 cents per 100 and the first quarter earnings. 357 + 397 + 417 = 1171 divided by 3 months = 390 average. Now the next 3 months 503 + 532 + 582 = 1617 divided by the 3 months = 539 average. Now substract $390. - $539. = $149 increase quarter over quarter your .70 cents per 100 = .70 cents now 49 = .35 cents add .70 + .35 = 1.05. take 1.05 + .27 =1.32 for 6 months now without any price increase rest of year it looks conservatively 1.32 + 1.32 = 2.64 divided it into the price of IPI today 48.65 divided by 2.64 = a P/E of 18. Take a selling price of $110.00 dollars divided by 2.64 = 37 p/e. My point IPI is undervalued by at least 150% by years end IPI should be min $150.00 a share and max of $185.00 a share Jun 04 03:47 AM
    • Intrepid Potash IPO: Soaring Shares Signal Fertilizer Bubble? [view article]
      There are 3 potash cartels which ship potash to over 135 countries. Seeking Alpha last night talking about POT it noted that POT is spending 2 billion to restructure a mine. Well IPI has 5 mines and guess what the most advanced Potash in the world a horitzontal mine in moab and they are making carlsbad the same. Potash up to about 1.5 years ago potash was selling between 75 and 100 not it is selling from 500 to 890 pnt and estimates to 1000 pnt by year end. The only thing wrong with this articule is they haven't seen the First earnings report from IPI and Monday will say it all. Remember when they said last year Oil wouldn't go over 40 dollars a barrel lol well guess what in 20 years when the world has doubled oil will be 4500 a barel. Oil when we had more than could be consumed in 1975 was 1.25 a barrel up to 2007 it was around 35 a barrel now 1 year later it's 135.00 a barrel with that jump Potash could run to 2500 per ton and not look back. But that is over expecations but then this article is just like the ill informed I bought MON a few years ago and have over 350 percent raise in profits thank you. This is the question I ask for most ideas I make If I had a choice today at this very moment would I buy AG sector or sell AG sector. Let me see 3 years of grains stores are totally depleted, we use corn for ethanol and the world is getting richer so better food and China and india use Soybean and Potash is what all farmers want for soybean/wheat/corn 3 of the top 4 commodities for food and fuel I would have to say no brainer buy AG sector. Jun 01 09:33 PM
    • Canpotex Port Expansion Is yet Another Catalyst for Fertilizer [view article]
      I have this to offer I have over 600k in the ag sector. I bought mon 3 years ago, and I own POT/IPI/MOS and yes I have made a Fortune from nearly nothing. I bought TBSI/DRYS/EXM and QMAR but EXM bought out QMAr and I made over 110 percent in that sector in the last few months. I made over 400k there. I am now out of the tanker sector but I am going to pount in 400k more into the AG sector as it rises 100k to each of AGU/IPI/MOS/POT I have a lot of MON already when the ag sector jumps another 20 percent I am putting that money in. Jun 01 02:53 AM
    • Canpotex Port Expansion Is yet Another Catalyst for Fertilizer [view article]
      IPI will be reporting earnings 10:00 a.m. MT. Like you said in the article it would cost about 2 billion to open a new mine and take years. Yet IPI has 5 mines and is worth 3.5 billion. IPI only supply's 5 percent to the U.S. The U.S. imports 85 percent of it's Potash and the price is closing in on 1000 pnt by Dec estimates. A handful of companys supply over 135 countries with Potash. The dry bulk sector is book with BHP/RTP/ and RIO with Iron/cement/coal/coppe... to China and India and this comodity business has just started. 15 years of good times ahead makes IPI/AGU/POT/MOS/MON perfect buys for now and the long term future. Jun 01 02:39 AM
    • Canpotex Port Expansion Is yet Another Catalyst for Fertilizer [view article]
      IPI is reporting earnings Monday 10:00 a.m. MT. IPI only supply's about 5 percent of the U.S. needs. There are but a handful of company's that have potash. Yet over 135 countries need Fertiliser and shipping is maxed out. DRYS/TBSI/DSX/EXM the major haulers of dry bulk are booked solid with Coal/iron/cement/coppe... and everyone is maxed out at the moment. The Potash is but one small key but you can bet IPI a 3.5 billion dollar company with 5 mines will skyrocket. In your article above you stated it costs about 2 billion to even open a new mine and IPI has 5 mines and it's reporting it's first earnings. IPI will blow away the estimate and if you don't jump on IPI before 10 am Monday you will miss a hugh profit and for the next 20 years Potash will be just like oil and gold. One thing for certain corn/wheat and soybean needs Potash and there just isn't enough to go around remember when oil was $1.25 a barrel in 1975 well Now food is more important than oil. I hope you understand this is my opinion Jun 01 02:33 AM
    • Dryships' Short Squeeze Potential [view article]
      I own 700 shares and hope it hits $165 dollars a share by june I will almost triple my money please hurry lol Apr 01 03:40 PM
    • Visa: Already Priced to Perfection [view article]
      V vs GOOG Fidelity and it's funds own about 30 million shares of GOOG and it's dropped approx 300 points with all that fidelity owns I'm guessing may become a bear sterns if so the market drops like in 1928 If Fidelity goes bankrupt so will lots of companys so I'm very worried so I'm day trading DRYS with a P/E 4.30 approx does any real analyst believe Fidelity can go bankrupt I can't quite figure how much Fidelity has lost in this market but I'm guessing over 200 billion so far this year and no one is talking about it why Mar 21 07:47 AM
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