KRANKY

Thursday Outlook: Where's the Big Fall?

Thank you for the informative article, with accompanying charts.
What these portend, along with the volatility, is that the markets are schizophrenic...and that a true bottom with a capitulation sell-off has not been accomplished so far. This is a rotational bear market, and sector switching is trading dollars looking for what is "safe". I expect another sucker rally next week, and then...the big kahuna. DOW will be propped somewhat by flight to safety and size, but secondary markets of smallcaps and midcaps will suffer
most.
This will be precipitated by late filers not getting the refunds they anticipated and/or their having to pay more in realized cap gains caused by creating events last year. This will then create another wave of selling to raise cash to pay the IRS.

I could be wrong, but this has happened before. Too many people panic at the same time. ( They could always file for an extension, and raise cash systematically over a period of months, but they are too human for that...most of them anyway. )

No crystal ball, just a rear view mirror.