KRANKY

Market Outlook: Watch Out, the Signs Can Be Deceiving

Oh, there is definitely another leg down, but it will be unequal fo diferent indices. The DOW and to some extent the S&P 500 will be protected because of size. Outflows from still overpriced mid and small caps wll gravitate towards the large caps, especially the consistent dividend payers.
Another mollifying aspect is that, due to computer trading now, the markets are more orderly. In the crash of '87, brokers just stopped taking calls. This created a logjam of sell orders, and the cascade ensued. This may portend that there will be no capitulation sell signal, and we are in for a violent up-and-down roller coaster ride of lower lows and lower highs for the immediate future.

Thursday Outlook: Where's the Big Fall?

Thank you for the informative article, with accompanying charts.
What these portend, along with the volatility, is that the markets are schizophrenic...and that a true bottom with a capitulation sell-off has not been accomplished so far. This is a rotational bear market, and sector switching is trading dollars looking for what is "safe". I expect another sucker rally next week, and then...the big kahuna. DOW will be propped somewhat by flight to safety and size, but secondary markets of smallcaps and midcaps will suffer
most.
This will be precipitated by late filers not getting the refunds they anticipated and/or their having to pay more in realized cap gains caused by creating events last year. This will then create another wave of selling to raise cash to pay the IRS.

I could be wrong, but this has happened before. Too many people panic at the same time. ( They could always file for an extension, and raise cash systematically over a period of months, but they are too human for that...most of them anyway. )

No crystal ball, just a rear view mirror.