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CROX Long/Short Investor
1 Comment
Crocs Appears Well Positioned, Stock Is Cheap - Baird
ALL of these retailers JUST received their initial orders of CROX products to stock their shelves THIS quarter, yet as you can see, almost EVERY pair is on clearance. Why? Because they cannot sell these gawd aweful faddish shoes anymore. Although the initial order fill for these large retailers may boost earnings in Q1, I believe this is already accounted for in the guideance. Further, the inventory situation I do not expect to improve over Q12008, as they are building their inventory to ship new product to 'meet demand', which, as judged by the amount of product placed on clearance currently, just isn't there.
Now, I do believe CROX will/has developed new styles that will be popular, boost earnings and raise the stock price down the road (such as the Santa Cruz, canvas sandal, ocean minded, worker shoes, etc.), however now is not the time to buy the stock. I expect the stock to go down to around the $10-$12 mark before the Q1 earnings release. At that point you can make a bet on whether you believe the Company's long term products will sell through sustainably.