cdcaddy

The Coming Dollar Deflation

shortage??? Actually just hoarded dollars... everyone wants them thinking that the buck is better to hold - but sooner than later this bubble will burst or deflate quickly... Why? Because the US cannot borrow it's way out of debt nor print [$$$] it's way into prosperity... and certainly with deflation taking a toll on the economy... Ben and the boys in DC will run the dollar aground - thinking that they can control inflation better than they can deal with the problems of deflation... let's all hold our breath and hope they can reign in the economy before it implodes.



On Dec 02 10:33 AM SWRichmond wrote:

> Patience, grasshopper.
>
> www.cnbc.com/id/280145...
>
> "Cost of Insuring Sovereign Debt Jumps to Record High"
>
> Referenced article points out the high, and growing risk of default
> in sovereign bonds, due essentially to the high demand for funds
> that governments are experiencing to fund various bailouts and stimulus
> packages. THESE PROGRAMS HAVE ONLY JUST BEGUN, and in many cases
> have not yet even begun to be funded.
>
> Hide in Treasuries if you choose. The "stock market is a generational
> buy" paradigm took more than a year to break, so too it will be with
> the "Treasuries as safe haven" paradigm. The herd is monumentally
> wrong.

The Future of Ethanol

One word - lobbyists
look at how even Obama is in the tank for corn ethanol...dismissing the idea of doing away with the 54 cent tariff on cane ethanol...


On Nov 13 08:54 AM Subsidy Eye wrote:

> John, if sweet sorghum is such a great idea, then why are 99% of
> the existing ethanol plants based on corn? Surely a company like
> ADM or VSE would have not been dumb enough to have overlooked the
> biofuel equivalent of money lying on the table.

The Fed Money Machine Gears Up to Print Trillions

The process by which the economy is going thru now [last few months] has me dazed and confused... hopefully someone will lead me in the right direction... the TARP program is meant to buy bad assets - so the $250B isn't really flooding the market - plus it's been infused into banks by buying shares...and the dollar has moved up because the de-leveraging of various financial positions along with fund re-demptions requires dollar denominations - so everyone needs the $$ - yet to conquer part of this - the Fed has to continue to sell more Treasuries [future tax income/earnings] to prop all this up...at some time don't we reach a point of diminishing returns... when so much money is out there...thru real dollars and sold debt that the value of the $$ starts a true decline...and how much of our future tax income can the govt sell before they realize the black hole they have created. With incomes falling plus an erosion in the tax base coupled with a growing senior populace that will require more govt $$$ to support - aren't we at a saturation point that spells trouble??? what gets us out of this mess - you can't fund debt with more debt... do we have one of those moments like in Animal House where after they wreck Flounder's car we tell the world - "hey you screwed up - you trusted us"???

Corn and Its Industry: The Next Tobacco

I guess we can blame corn for the increasing average of "living years" by Americans... then we can blame corn for impacting medicare and social security because we are living longer - of course we're all not living healthier.. .... unless you're not eating corn -LOL

This Recession Will Be Anything but Deep

I totally agree with the inflationary period ahead of us...however I keep wondering when that cycle is going to start since the dollar seems to be holding. Certainly it's up due to the fact that it's the "best looking" ugly currency in the basket - but with the US printing presses winding up and a rising tide of dollars being pushed into the economy...I'm expecting an inflationary process to begin almost any day...

John Hussman: Is There a Possibility of $60 Oil?

Geez - I could have written this tripe...OPEC is searching for the point of diminishing return...right now they have oil over $100 which is a price point they have wanted...as demand curbs - so will production, they won't flood the market with product - NO manufacturer would do that... So unless the global economy tanks - OPEC will keep their finger on the pulse to ensure optimal pricing. I'd love to see $60 oil...but we are along way from that at the moment...

Is It Time to Bet Against Oil?

Until we have a sane and workable energy policy [which will take a while given our current Congress], a pull back in consumption will/could help stabilize oil at the $100 to $140 range. Face it - OPEC has their hands in our pockets and now that the price is where they
have wanted it...they will be hard pressed to see it fall. It wasn't by accident that Iran just launched a long range missle - and new fields will only fill in the gaps of those fields that are now lagging in production. There are so many factors in the price of oil now including the growing cost to find it - then extract it. Cheap oil is years away...but if anyone can find a way to replace it to some degree - it is the USA. Necessity is the mother of invention.

Oil Hits $140: What Could Trigger a Reverse?

I think what she needs is a little more research. While OPEC may produce a bit more, the non OPEC oil suppliers are having fall offs in their production. Look at the total oil supplies not just the Saudi's. The only quick fix is to curtail consumption around the globe. Plus this country needs to start a mass infrastructure campaign for E85 from sugar cane like Brazil does. Just wait and watch - corn ethanol producers in the US will have their heads [and bottom lines] under water with corn prices climbing higher and higher...

When Will American Realize the World Has Changed?

to incandoitdon: rep + dems are all to blame for the mess we are in...along with the media who will write till their pens run dry about Brittany but not about govt spending. the average American has no idea just how inept Washington is right now - if they can pass the 2008 Farm Bill like they have, then everyone is to blame. I'm a rep - but now 7 years later... Bush has failed us all in a number of ways. The road back to being America is before us - but it doesn't lie in our politicians...none of the presidential hopefuls can do what we need to do collectively as a nation.

Recent Oil Spike: 'Irrational Exuberance'?

I'm not so sure the bubble will burst until we collectively do more to slow consumption. Supply and demand can be irrational of one another if their are outside influences that can impact either ie: no one really sees China or India slowing in growth in the short term [hence if supply were to tick up - there would be a home for it] With no way of replenishing oil there's no way for it to recede unless new sources are found - even then you have to look at the higher cost associated with
tapping into it. Face it - the world economy has some real soul searching to do to negate a dwindling natural resource. Add to this the fact that OPEC has no incentive to curtail rising prices until it adverserly
effects buying - right now - there's no incentive for them.

I would like to see how the market would react if we were to discontinue the speculative trading of oil [if it's even possible]

Want Lower Gas Prices? OK, Let's Increase Supply

there are alternatives to petrol - and yes ethanol [cane based] is where we need to be...Brazil is a great example of how to do it - OUR big problem is no infrastructure. We are retards when it comes to getting good alternatives out to the general public = the same can be said of mass transit solutions that work and that the public will buy into.
In short - we need to cut consumption and expand the resources we have with ethanol - just not corn based ethanol...
Our industrial power should be focused now on energy solutions for the near future and beyond...not beyond "oh when all the oil is gone what we we do"...

Options Trader: Friday Outlook

JRE - try decaf! But you are right...the sour crude that's building up won't get used until the sulphur content in diesel can be increased - so distillates will be a problem until then...AND yes the farm bill is an insane
footnote to our politician's overall stupidity. The only way oil is ever going to come back down is with the global economies of the world using less fossil fuel and more alternative energy - who cares what we do - as the US slows, the BRIC is picking up [although you have to give Brazil a lot of credit for their cane based ethanol program]

Until we get our heads out of our congressional a** we're in for oil prices over $100 a barrel and then some...

PS - the way we getting screwed by our own congess - the American public is that "half a**ed muffin boy"

Farm Bill and Oil Prices

CHL - you're right - just look at the rest of the farm bill that's going to pass... our politicians are screwing us over and over and we're not stopping them... what's wrong with us that we'll put up with this...
AND oil speculators are bullish because they know one thing - the days of cheap oil are over! AND when was the last time a government idea or regulation ever really solved anything???

Where Does Oil Go from Here?

Why would OPEC meet? There is supply...and when was the last time you complained about getting "paid too much"? These guys are wringing their hands and frothing at the mouth...they now have all the clout and the shift in financial power is blowing their way...

Oil is off to the races until we rein in our consumption or find an alternative to replace it...

Death of the SUV

When it comes to the US auto industry I don't get the manufacturers...we have all known for years that oil would be a diminishing resource...today we have a terrible bio-fuel program and auto makers are still making gas only engines and the govt has not put into play the design of an infrastructure for re-new able energy. We are so far behind the curve and it's not just the auto industry. Brazil is currently selling more cane based ethanol than gasoline - oh yeah - that's because GM supplies most of the E85 vehicles...and they use sugar [non protein] for ethanol and they have a complete system to get
ethanol to the consumers. [seen any E85 stations in your area - not mine] Yes - SUVs as they are configured today will become a relic...
but we have problems bigger than an SUV to now fix...