Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Happy2b's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • "I would not overestimate retail investors' knowledge of how this business works," says Scott Ulm, co-CEO of Armour Residential (ARR -1.3%). Income fans love mREITs (MORT -1.3%) but can suffer quick losses as rates rise. "We believe mREITs are not appropriate for most individual investors," says Edward Jones' Kate Warne, warning brokers to steer clients away from the sector. Ulm remains hopeful: "As bonds become cheaper, reinvestment becomes more profitable." Beneath a big rally for the averages, the sector is hit again today: American Capital (AGNC -2.6%), (MTGE -1.2%), Annaly (NLY -1.9%), Two Harbors (TWO -0.9%), Hatteras (HTS -1.9%), CYS (CYS -2.8%), Anworth (ANH -0.9%). [View news story]
    Massive, always increasing, and unpredictable (in timing and effect, short-term and long-term) government intrusion into the "free" market makes all investing--from mREITS to apartment buildings--little more than a trip to Las Vegas. It was government intrusion in the economy (Community Investment Act, fed tightening/loosening, etc., etc.) that set up the bubble and inevitable collapse in 2008, and as far as I can tell, nothing has really changed at all. There is precious little "real" capitalism left in the Western world, and with government fiat money "counterfeiting" rampant nearly everywhere, I don't see anything changing this state of politico-economic chaos significantly anytime soon. The world's socio-political-economic philosophy and practice is morally bankrupt and I do not see this all ending well for anyone but our government-bankster masters--and, perhaps, not even for them when the REAL disaster finally occurs. There...I said it (I/we can only hope I am a paranoid moron and am somehow completely wrong).

    In the meantime, the birds are chirping and it is a beautiful day here (San Diego); I think I'll go for a walk and enjoy the view of the local mountains and ocean from 3,000 feet. Best to one and all. And, as Larry Levin is fond of saying, "Trade well and follow the trend."

    PS -- I heard a rumor that there is a bunch of laissez-faire capitalism breaking out in India. I wonder how hard it is to learn how to speak Hindi?
    Jun 10, 2013. 01:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real False God Of Dividends [View article]

    If I understand Sleek's example (and your rebuttal) correctly, after the 10 years had passed, these two COMPLETELY IDENTICAL hypothetical companies (except for cash in the bank) would both still have precisely the same sales and net earnings per year. Can you please explain how, after the 10 years had passed, these two otherwise identical companies would/could/might still be valued equally (equal share prices) by the market, even though one of them would have large amounts of cash and the other one would have no cash. Clearly (?), the company with the cash would have a larger book value and, one would assume, would also have a commensurately larger price per share (assuming a rational market, of course). Am I missing something?? Thanks.
    Nov 20, 2012. 01:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AGNC Offers Investors A 16% Yield And Better Operating Performance Than Annaly [View article]
    What possible difference does it make that one company's accountants choose to abbreviate their financial statement numbers in thousands of dollars and another company chooses to abbreviate their numbers using millions of dollars. Are you incapable of adding the appropriate number of zeros for each accounting abbreviation method? Because, if you are, you cannot possibly be qualified to analyze ANY company more complex than a lemonade stand, much less one as structurally complex as an mREIT.
    Nov 17, 2012. 12:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Stock Plus Dividends: Better Than Bonds [View article]
    R-12....I think u meant to say "obsolete," not "absolute," right?
    Nov 14, 2012. 06:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Tide Has Gone Out On mREITs And Might Get Worse [View article]
    RS...Thank u so very much 4 ur opinion/reply. So as long as the common shares are still paying a decent dividend the preferreds should stay above par? Best regards.
    Nov 8, 2012. 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Tide Has Gone Out On mREITs And Might Get Worse [View article]
    Surfgeezer (or anyone else)...Thanks 4 da reply. Do u think it is likely/unlikely that large mREIT preferreds (like NLY n AGNC) will drop and/or stay below their par value as long as they are still paying a reasonable (10%) dividend on the common shares? Thanks!
    Nov 8, 2012. 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Tide Has Gone Out On mREITs And Might Get Worse [View article]
    Does anyone have an educated opinion on what the effect of a continued decline in divs and per share price for the mREITs could/would have on prices of the preferred shares of cos like NLY (NLYpC) and AGNC (AGNCP)? Thanks!
    Nov 7, 2012. 10:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's CEO Discusses Q3 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    While i realize this transcript was transcribed on the fly for rapid publication, the Q n A section is largely unintelligible. Thanks for trying, though.
    Nov 1, 2012. 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No, Peak Oil Is Not Going To Happen [View article]

    1. Attacking my arguments without citations and/or refutations is a blatant ad hominem attack.

    2. Insinuating that I am a, "fool" is the very DEFINITION of an ad hominem attack.

    3. You claim my arguments, "...have been disproven time and again" yet you fail to cite a single argument or a single source of refutation. This logical fallacy is a cross between an 'appeal to the masses' and an 'appeal to authority."

    4. In my experience, the use of curse words is often indicative of a lack of intellectual discipline and/or a lack of education.

    5. A spade is a spade is a spade, indeed.
    Oct 2, 2012. 07:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Oversold And Undervalued Dividend Stock With A Double-Digit Yield [View article]
    My understanding is that NGLs usually trade in lockstep with oil, not gas, and can therefore be equitably aligned with oil, giving CHKR a de facto 80%-20% mix of oil to gas. With gas near multi-year lows, any forward projections of CHKR payouts will be highly dependent on the future price(s) of oil with gas royalties as a potential upside, 'bonus.' It is also my understanding that, in spite of the current slow(ing) economic climate, the world consumed more oil (total volume bought/sold) last month (August) than any prior month in history, a seemingly bullish sign for future oil prices. Of course, the corollary is that (as everyone from Texas knows) oil is profitable for producers at prices far below 50% of current prices. Therefore, if the world's economy survives the current crisis and, 'normal' growth resumes, all commodities prices will rise sharply along with the inflation caused by policies of central banksters world-wide and CHKR (and MVO) will go up both in price and in payouts (possibly WAY up). If, on the other hand, the policies of the central banksters cause a deepening and then a, 'final' collapse of the world economy (and subsequent global wars), then CHKR is a terrible place to invest (along with MVO, of course). That's the trouble with equity investing (and correctly calling the next roll of the dice at a craps table); one must be able to accurately predict the future (and know how much they are willing to lose). Many 'experts' are now saying that the only sure thing is that the world economy will not stay here for much longer, but will break one way or the other fairly soon. So, place your bets (and your stops) carefully ladies and gentlemen. Energy investing is, as it has always been, little more than a crap-shoot. Good luck to all (we will all need it).
    Sep 25, 2012. 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Fed Can Send mREITs Higher (Part 2) [View article]
    Thank you 4 da reply, but I read Part 1 and saw no reference to MBS purchases. Where did I go wrong?
    Sep 14, 2012. 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Newly Retired Investors - Don't Chase Yield [View article]

    I very much like your article. I am newly retired and l have already made a mistake chasing yield in a royalty trust (CHKR) this year. As a new issue (IPO in Fall of 2011) it had no history to speak of and the fundies looked amazing (at least to me). Then, on no news I was aware of, it got hammered hard last Spring, falling from more than $32 to below its IPO price of $18! Fortunately, I had put in a tight stop when it hit $28 as it had enjoyed a terrific run since the IPO, but I learned my lesson nevertheless. Chasing yield is no safer than chasing cars (woof-woof). Now it's boring stocks only for me.

    BTW (and please don't take offense), you may want to look up the word princiPLE vs. princiPAL. It is a very common error that spell-checker can't help with (lol)!

    Sep 13, 2012. 06:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Fed Can Send mREITs Higher (Part 2) [View article]
    Does anyone know the potential effects on mREITs of the FED purchasing MBS as announced today? Thanks!
    Sep 13, 2012. 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Fed Could Send mREITs Higher [View article]
    RS- Pardon my ignorance, but how would the Fed buying MBS effectively destroy an entire market sector (I assume you mean the mREIT sector?)? Would that increase the mREITs portfolio value while decreasing their payouts? I am confused. Thanks!
    Sep 13, 2012. 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No, Peak Oil Is Not Going To Happen [View article]
    Hi Jeep,

    I am a fan of your holistic viewpoint(s). That our existence and existence itself is mysterious is certainly undeniable. Hinduism speaks of it (the mystery) poetically dividing existence into the Self and the self. Many other religious/philosophical systems mimic the Hindus, translating the Hindu poetry into concepts more understandable within widely varied social/cultural settings. The Christian poetry, for example, translates the Self/self idea into the man-as-god and man-as-man ideas. And there is much to be learned from the study of such religious systems, none of it empirical, of course.

    Unfortunately, since the Enlightenment's rediscovery of reason/logic and the refinement of the scientific method, humans have had a propensity--which continues largely unabated--to blend (read: confuse) poetic knowledge with empirical knowledge (left and right brain) indiscriminately. The failure of modern social systems to successfully recognize this epistemological error and educate their populations (beginning with the political class) to avoid the mistakes that such ignorance fosters (eg. DDT) has led to and will continue to lead to catastrophic errors in policy(s). The Earth Religionists dogmatic emotionalism, self-justified by little more than a thin veneer of science, is just one glaring example of many such intellectual failures.

    It seems to me that environmentalists are particularly myopic. As far as I can tell, their group-think looks neither to the past nor to the future. Rather, they are frozen in the present. They seem to have taken a, 'snapshot' of the flora and fauna of Earth as it exists in their lifetimes and decided that any change in that snapshot is the equivalent of the religious crucifixion of that environment and therefore must be stopped at virtually ANY cost. That apparently includes--if necessary--the deaths of millions of human children from malaria! Pessimism regarding the future and gloom and doom in the present are natural corollaries to those with such thinking patterns. Climate change mongers are one of the most perfect examples of this kind of thinking. In spite of the fact that the Earth has been steadily warming now for 10,000 to 12,000 years (since the end of the last ice-age), they insist that even one more degree of warming will somehow be catastrophic! Their cause is emotional, not rational, and is undeniable proof that their belief is RELIGIOUS in nature. It is a matter of FAITH, not FACTS, and it is deadly to humans (which seems to bother them little, humans being the declared enemy and all).

    I am afraid that until humanity learns to effectively separate the empirical from the emotional (the rational from the religious), technological progress will out-run psychological progress with, I fear, many more very tragic consequences.

    I hope you have gathered from this note that I am not against religion. I have studied them all and even tried immersion in one when I was quite young. They have much to offer and were the 'glue' that held social/moral structures together through the pre-Enlightenment centuries. Both faith and reason have their places. The dangers come when we fail to collectively recognize when they have merged.


    Sep 11, 2012. 06:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment