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    • Wed Apr 2nd 13:08 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      TrimTabs: It's a Recession, and It's Already Over (Wrong)
      I posted this on another article but it is apropos to the above --

      Biderman of Trimtabs - April 1, CNBC (paste the link into your browser address bar)

      plus.cnbc.com/results/...
      View article »
    • Wed Apr 2nd 11:55 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Housing Market Tracker - Looking for Bottom to the Subprime Crisis
      Video: Biderman of Trimtabs on CNBC Tuesday April 1


      "All the foreclosures will be history by June (2008)"
      "foreclosed homes selling like hotcakes...$500,000 homes for $300,000"

      "In California...I'm trying to buy some, but am being outbid"

      (Windows Media - cut and past the following link into browser address bar--slow to load)

      plus.cnbc.com/results/...@cnbc.com%26key%3D0r0d...
      View article »
    • Tue Apr 1st 13:54 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Options Trader: Tuesday Outlook
      Phil - watching today's action (in disbelief) I was wondering if you would be publishing a reprise to your extremely controversial 'Meredith' article from last week -- she has been consipcious by her absence so far this week

      seekingalpha.com/artic...
      View article »
    • Mon Mar 31st 17:06 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Housing Market Tracker - Affordable Housing Hasn't Enabled Affordability
      You may want to add this article about a "Foreclosure Tour Bus" in the Ft Myers area to your list. I can't quite make it out but I think the driver's name tag says Bob T.

      www.financialpost.com/...

      Seriously, I found Toll's comments about Naples, FL interesting (posted above and SA's earlier post). What Toll says makes sense - they have two active developments in the Naples area - one priced starting in the mid 200's and one in the upper $400's -- not a bad price to be a neighbor of WCI's Starkey (also mentioned in SA's earlier post) who is trying to sell his Naples dump for a little over $14m

      Starkeys listing (cut and paste link in address bar)
      webapps2.planetrealtor...

      One of Toll's Naples listings (cut and past link in address bar)

      www.quickdeliveryhomes...

      View article »
    • Sun Mar 30th 16:20 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Goldman: Total Leveraged Credit Losses = $1.2 Trillion
      Some questions if GS is correct and there is still more than 80% (almost $1trn) to be written off:

      Has the pain and trauma from the write-offs to date been proportional to the size of those write-offs, exaggerated in anticipation of what is to come or diminished due to the administering of fiscal and monetary anesthetics / treatment?

      Will the pain and infection from future write-offs be similar to what has been experienced so far or will it be cumulative and increasing in intensity?

      Will there be sufficient quantity and type of anesthetic and treatment options to deal with the additional $1trn of write-offs?

      What side effects might be expected? Are the anesthetics addictive? What is the prognosis?




      View article »
    • Sat Mar 29th 13:52 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Meredith Whitney Threatens Severe Deflation For Your Portfolio
      Further to Mr. Mortgage's comment you may want to read David Merkel's excellent article

      seekingalpha.com/artic...

      and related to that this article referenced in one of the comments that follows Merkel's article

      www.geocities.com/ecoc... from which the following quote by George Soros was taken:

      "The generally accepted theory is that financial markets tend towards equilibrium, and on the whole, discount the future correctly. I operate using a different theory, according to which financial markets cannot possibly discount the future correctly because they do not merely discount the future; they help to shape it"

      View article »
    • Fri Mar 28th 22:55 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Meredith Whitney Threatens Severe Deflation For Your Portfolio
      I have followed and respected Whitney for her forthright comments and even posted a link to her CNBC interview from Thursday PM above. Tonight, Friday March 28, I happened to see her on a CNN special report on the mortgage crisis. Suffice to say I am now suspect of her motivations.

      As for the CIBC link to Oppenheimer I also posted a link above that references their acquisition of many CIBC assets – of interest however is Oppenheimer Hold Co's Toronto HQ with a board that includes an interesting cast of characters including the likes of John Bitove (former caterer to the Greater Toronto Airport Authority). I do not agree with the author’s perspective on a conspiracy, but I have observed that many financial pundits appear to bite their tongues as they reference her analysis.

      Of interest are her comments in the March 27 interview, which do in fact seem to contradict her comments from an earlier interview on March 17.

      I have posted the links to both interviews below - they need to be copied and pasted into the address bar of your browser and take about 30 - 90 seconds to load. (Windows Media Player)


      March 17

      plus.cnbc.com/results/...@cnbc.com%26key%3DR7ik...


      March 27

      plus.cnbc.com/results/...@cnbc.com%26key%3DWcbq...


      View article »
    • Fri Mar 28th 09:21 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Meredith Whitney Threatens Severe Deflation For Your Portfolio
      Oppenheimer Closes Previously Announced Acquisition of a Major Part of CIBC World Markets’ U.S. Capital Markets Businesses

      www.opco.com/public/ab...


      Meredith Whitney, Oppenheimer & Co. on the banks - CNBC video clip - March 27 PM (30 seconds to load)

      plus.cnbc.com/results/...@cnbc.com%26key%3DWcbq...
      View article »
    • Wed Mar 26th 22:19 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Counter-Productive Is Realtor Association Spin?
      This is an interesting read on the sub prime and the mortgage/housing situation:

      www.financialsense.com...

      The following link is provided for no other reason than to illustrate just how complex the credit derivatives market is - it is an article by one of the pioneers of CDO / CDS modeling Dr. DX LI - some might call this an example of what has been referred to as a "weapon of mass financial destruction"

      finmath.stanford.edu/s...
      View article »
    • Wed Mar 26th 17:56 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Counter-Productive Is Realtor Association Spin?
      There is another statistic that is suspect, which is the supposed 3% decline in inventory of existing homes to 4.03m units* (9.6mths supply +-) in February from the 10.2 month supply in January (not to be confused with the 9.8 months / 460,000 units** of new home inventory). Apart from seasonality factors and the year over year 40% increase in months supply, those existing home statistics do not account for the burgeoning shadow real estate market (existing home inventory placed on the sidelines by owners who can afford to wait). It would appear that many would-be home sellers continue in a state of denial as to the value of their property(ies) as they wait for the turnaround "that's just around the corner".

      Reporting such as this www.cnbc.com/id/238090.../
      or this
      www.cnbc.com/id/238146...
      and those mentioned above fuel this unfounded optimism with the unintended impact of perpetuating and deepening the housing and broader economic crisis.

      Separately, what is sad about this type of incessant hype is that real people are being impacted by it. I overheard a bellman at the hotel we were recently at in South Fla talking about the condominium he recently purchased. As if looking for reassurance he explained how ‘everyone is saying that ‘there is no better time to buy’ - the person he was speaking to was kind enough to assure him that owning a home can be a good long term investment – ironically this was the same hotel where Countrywide was embarrassed into canceling one of their recent events. www.cnbc.com/id/234231...


      *(Existing Home Inventory)
      www.hwmarketintelligen...

      **(New Home Inventory)
      www.hwmarketintelligen...
      View article »
    • Sun Mar 23rd 16:12 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Market Outlook: Watch Out, the Signs Can Be Deceiving
      I visited Panzer's site and he referenced in one of his commentaries a Barclays Capital analysis of counterparty risk -- The following link is to the full text of that Barclays analysis -- pages 13-15 provide a 'what if ' scenario should a major counterparty default.

      https://ecommerce.barc...

      Another interesting analysis (referenced in an article by David Merkel) is the current Oaktree Capital client memo

      s.wsj.net/public/resou...
      View article »
    • Sun Mar 23rd 10:19 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Market Outlook: Watch Out, the Signs Can Be Deceiving
      I would suggest that the mother of all capitulations, albeit a virtual one, took place after the US markets closed on Friday March 14 and prior to their opening on the 17th; reference the predictions of what might have been had the ‘rescue’ not been engineered. Now if only a ‘rescue’ of the housing market would be engineered then we could all get back on that virtual bull…
      View article »
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