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Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

I posted this yesterday but if you missed it here is a clip from Tuesday AM featuring a CNBC guest crossing the line by mentioning the PPT. They freaked out.

www.cnbc.com/id/158402...

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

The very best CNBC clip ever - with a guest commentator (Scott Nations of Fortress Trading) speaking out loud for their (hundreds) of viewers the acronym "PPT". The talking heads went into panic mode as did the other guest commentator Mickey Levy of Bank of America. Even the great Santelli cleverly denied its existence while the always pleasant Becky Quick distanced CNBC from Scott Nation's assertions. I somehow think he will be black listed.

www.cnbc.com/id/158402...

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Roubini Says `Panic' May Force Market Shutdown (Update2)

By Alexis Xydias and Camilla Hall

Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Hundreds of hedge funds will fail and policy makers may need to shut financial markets for a week or more as the crisis forces investors to dump assets, New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said.

``We've reached a situation of sheer panic,'' Roubini, who predicted the financial crisis in 2006, told a conference of hedge-fund managers in London today. ``There will be massive dumping of assets'' and ``hundreds of hedge funds are going to go bust,'' he said.

www.bloomberg.com/apps...

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Mr. Fry - SA needs to give you a dedicated link for faster navigation - hopefully they pay you well.

With respect to the Lehman settlement there is a lot of discussion of the true cost. Below is a press release from the ISDA suggesting it's a $6 bn hit.

Another perspective was offered in an October 15 article by Elisa Parisi-Capone, an economist who writes for www.rgemonitor.com (one of best if not the best finanical / economic sites on the net)

ISDA press release:

"The cash settlement deadline for Lehman is today, October 21. Based on industry estimates, a total of $6bn to $8bn is expected to have changed hands by close of business. This is approximately 1% to 2% of the $400 billion in CDS trades referencing Lehman and does not account for the effects of collateral, which will further reduce the payment amounts.

“Today’s settlement demonstrates that the industry infrastructure for CDS clearly works,” said Mr. Pickel. "ISDA and its members have developed a robust legal and operational framework "

www.isda.org/press/pre...
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RGEmonitor.com article by Elisa Parisi-Capone

Lehman CDS Payout On October 21: $360bn or $6bn?

"So far, among dealer banks and AIG the CDS fallout from Lehman’s default amounts to around $200bn already."

www.rgemonitor.com/eco...

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

"The markets are as oversold as they can get" - Most crashes are preceded by oversold conditions. But when we get the reversal today or Monday it will be the trading opportunity of a lifetime (unless it's different this time)

Emerging Markets Ready to Re-emerge - Barron's

- The full Barrons Article (Free Access)

online.barrons.com/art...?

-Washington Post on emerging markets: Sept 13

www.washingtonpost.com...


-Marc Faber on emerging markets Sept 26

www.bloomberg.com/avp/...


-EMM Chart 5 year

tinyurl.com/4h58qd

Emerging Markets Ready to Re-emerge - Barron's

Perhaps El-Erian has been drinking from the same Kool-Aid cup that Bill Gross was drinking from after the Fannie Freddie bail out, when he stated that the Cat 4 economic storm had been downgraded to a Tropical Storm. Every interview I have seen featuring El Erian in the past two weeks suggested that global conditions will continue very weak into 2009 and beyond. Exports are key to most emerging economies - exactly where will they be exporting to, the US and Europe?

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

TomCat - Extremely clever comment but I think you're on the wrong website - this is SeekingAlpha not the DailyKos --

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Love your charts - they are the canaries in the coal mine -- In terms of your comments on lobbying, the following is a robust and nonpartisan website that tracks all contributions by party, by candidate, by industry, by lobby etc

www.opensecrets.org/lo...

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Excellent as always – You cite Bond Daddy Bill Gross and Clown in Chief Cramer in the same article – yesterday those two were on CNBC together in a veritable mutual admiration society – but it gets better, in Pimco’s monthly commentary Gross reveals he’s a big fan of Cramer … Not to be cynical but could Bond Daddy being employing the use of a Clown to further a bail-out agenda of which he would be a huge beneficiary??

www.cnbc.com/id/158402...

www.pimco.com/LeftNav/...