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Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Roubini Says `Panic' May Force Market Shutdown (Update2)

By Alexis Xydias and Camilla Hall

Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Hundreds of hedge funds will fail and policy makers may need to shut financial markets for a week or more as the crisis forces investors to dump assets, New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said.

``We've reached a situation of sheer panic,'' Roubini, who predicted the financial crisis in 2006, told a conference of hedge-fund managers in London today. ``There will be massive dumping of assets'' and ``hundreds of hedge funds are going to go bust,'' he said.

www.bloomberg.com/apps...

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Mr. Fry - SA needs to give you a dedicated link for faster navigation - hopefully they pay you well.

With respect to the Lehman settlement there is a lot of discussion of the true cost. Below is a press release from the ISDA suggesting it's a $6 bn hit.

Another perspective was offered in an October 15 article by Elisa Parisi-Capone, an economist who writes for www.rgemonitor.com (one of best if not the best finanical / economic sites on the net)

ISDA press release:

"The cash settlement deadline for Lehman is today, October 21. Based on industry estimates, a total of $6bn to $8bn is expected to have changed hands by close of business. This is approximately 1% to 2% of the $400 billion in CDS trades referencing Lehman and does not account for the effects of collateral, which will further reduce the payment amounts.

“Today’s settlement demonstrates that the industry infrastructure for CDS clearly works,” said Mr. Pickel. "ISDA and its members have developed a robust legal and operational framework "

www.isda.org/press/pre...
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RGEmonitor.com article by Elisa Parisi-Capone

Lehman CDS Payout On October 21: $360bn or $6bn?

"So far, among dealer banks and AIG the CDS fallout from Lehman’s default amounts to around $200bn already."

www.rgemonitor.com/eco...