RickRussellTX

The Not-So-Smart Smart Money

My reading exactly. I got back into the market again, after being out since Dec. 2001, precisely because I think the downward spiral of the markets and the credit crisis are related. Tighter lending restrictions means that funds and corporations with short-term holdings need to convert them to cash for operations and debt payments, which results in several rounds of panic selling.

I suspect we'll hunt around these lows for another 9-18 months before returning to the usual uptrend. In the meantime, I'm going to be scouting for bargains.

Dow in Secular Bear Market When Priced in Ounces of Gold

I'm not sure I understand indexing against the price of gold. Sure, it's a kind of "panic" indicator. But wouldn't some basket of inflation measures make more sense? I'm not saying the full CPI, since we know how that's constantly getting tweaked. But some basket of well-understood raw materials & manufactured products would provide a more stable comparison baseline.