Bob'29

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    • Google: More Downside Up Ahead [view article]
      Lets watch the Android announcement tomorrow, Tuesday. GOOG may never look back Sep 22 09:38 PM
    • Is the Commodities Bull Market Over? [view article]
      go to Kitco.com for an interesting analysis of gold and silver prices. the author notes that prices have fallen to August lows which was a breakout of a multi-year cup and handle formation. We're back to the "cup" or breakout point... a good place to enter. Aug 12 03:09 AM
    • Silver Wheaton: Still Waiting for the Growth [view article]
      Yesterday was the day: SLW bounced off of its low of 9.50. Is that below$12.00 enough to be interesting? What is the per ounce price now and what was it a year ago? Is there a web site source for this info? Thanks. Aug 12 02:44 AM
    • News Flash: Major Market Turns Aren't Announced In Advance [view article]
      I did neglected to mention that the bottom bell rings on Monday September 8. Why? Jupiter goes direct by heavenly apparent motion at 12 degrees of Capricorn. Now that we all know and have it marked on our calenders we'll all be coordinated have covered the shorts and will be prepared to go long. A little forknowledge goes a long way. Everybody happy? Jul 25 01:24 AM
    • News Flash: Major Market Turns Aren't Announced In Advance [view article]
      The further decline of the S&P before a bottom is in place is another 10% do from its July low of 1200 to S&P 1080 or another 20% down from that point to S&P 960 depending on which studied economist you listen to. Today Thursday July 24: the stock market fall is a small illustration of the continuing trend. Jul 25 12:45 AM
    • The Current Market Atmosphere: Easy Money Hard to Come by [view article]
      During the preceding days of the Bear Stearns buyout the stock did trade at close to $2.00/share, much less than the asset value of Bear Stearn's buildings, offices and real estate that it sat on. Those that bought at those prices made 400%-500% when the sale went through. Washington Mutual is not facing bankruptcy. The conservative S&P revised estimates WaMu at $7.00/share based on 0.3 price to book There are still very big, very well run mutual fund companies, like Oakmark Funds that still hold large quantities of WaMu. I think there might be a good buy in WaMu at these oversold prices. Jun 26 04:19 PM
    • The Current Market Atmosphere: Easy Money Hard to Come by [view article]
      The word from the nypost is that J.P. Morgan has Washington Mutual on the top of its wish list of buys. I looked back to March of this year. J.P. Morgan's first offer for Bear Stearns was for $2.00/share. The buy out was finalized at $10.00/share. Does anyone know what the purchase price of WaMu might be. It traded as low as $5.05 (for good reason or not) today down from about $40. not too long ago. Jun 26 12:32 PM
    • Apple Stalls, but Shorting Is Risky [view article]
      The combined effect of all of Apple's facets produces a compelling reason for its stock price to increase both in the long and in the short term. From another blog somewhere in the universe:
      "After some quick rounding and arithmatic estimates; It will take about 13.6 million movie rentals/sales per month for the movie division of iTunes to add an additional one billion dollars to Apple revenue in one year. I arrived at this with a ratio of 3 rentals to every movie sale. This ratio may be tilted toward the sale side as rentals do outnumber sales. Currently it would take 83.4 million sales of iTune songs per month to produce a billion dollars per year in revenue . iTunes songs has now accomplished this five times over (5 billion sold). The current monthly movie rental/sale number is now 1.5 million. I don’t think it will take a whole long time before iTunes movies add another annual billion in revenue to Apple’s numbers. Apple’s close relationship with Disney will positively effect Apple’s bottom line, an aspect of Apple that most analysts have overlooked."
       Jun 19 07:24 PM
    • FMC Shares Priced For Perfection - Barron's [view article]
      I guess everyone knows the price of perfection:

      FMC Technologies Senior Vice President Robert L. Potter exercises options for 25,600 shares

      NEW YORK (AP) -- A senior vice president of FMC Technologies Inc. exercised options for 25,600 shares of common stock, according to two Securities and Exchange Commission filings on Friday.
      In Form 4s filed with the SEC, Robert L. Potter reported he exercised the options Wednesday for $10 apiece and sold them all the same day for $81.52 to $82.46 apiece.

      Insiders file Form 4s with the SEC to report transactions in their companies' shares. Open market purchases and sales must be reported within two business days of the transaction.

       May 28 09:10 AM
    • FMC Shares Priced For Perfection - Barron's [view article]

      From another blog somewhere in the universe:

      “What goes parabolically up must come down at least a little”. A trend reversal is where money leaves one sector and rotates or moves into another sector. It looks as though a rotation out of oil and gas has began. There is some potential very big and smart long term money that will be moving back into tech. As the rising tide lifts all boats, well place tech companies like AAPL should see added upward fuel. What might fall hard is an oil services company called FMC Technologies (symbol: FTI) which has recently doubled in price with a current P/E unjustly way above its peers.. Read Barron’s article by Sandra Ward. She points out no fewer than five reasons why the stock may well fall like a mal-attached crane off the top of an oil rig. About eight years ago I first heard the term, “Priced to Perfection” referred to the larger market before one of the worst crashes most living people have seen . Ms Ward uses “priced to perfection” in regard to the price FTI is now trading at (if its not going up anymore….). As the smart money takes profits from FTI; those willing to short the stock may derive a healthy profit. The stock closed the week at $75.55. The author suggests that it might find support at its 50 day moving average which is $66. Of course always use caution when shorting a stock. Remember January when AAPL dropped from $202 to its low of 119? Lets look to FTI and see if it behaves in a similar way       May 26 10:14 PM
    • Oil Sensitivities [view article]
      The Ultra Short Oil and Gas ETF (DUG) was UP over 2.5% today It was UP 5.5% from its intra day low today. I think we might be seeing the peak of the speculative froth on oil and a retreat to more "modest" prices. May 21 10:58 PM
    • Real Estate and Financials: Sell the Rally [view article]
      SRS moved forcefully to the upside today May 7 to close at 85.78, a 5.45% gain today. If we look at a longer time frame, we see that it began its climb to highs from 80 or about where it touched today at its low before starting to climbing again. It is very reasonable that it will go to 100 as this is the 50% retracement from its recent high of 120 to its new low of 80. Nice article Jason. May 08 12:00 AM
    • Pershing Square: Buying Up Borders [view article]
      Mr. Ackman, the mouse in the corner that was carefully listening to the restructuring discussion reported back. As we anticipated and from reading above referenced documents; Borders music business is in need of some creative input. Here it is. My father supported our family with a busy music store which started in the 1940's. It saw the progression from sheet music to 78 rpm, to 33 rpm mono then stereo records. There were listening booths where a customer could take their long playing 33 rpm record, close the door, place it on the turntable and listen to hearts content. Most of the time it would result in a sale. One of the reasons cd's have gone flat in sales (besides iTunes) is that there is really no equivalent to the listening booth. How many times have you purchased a cd and really not liked it? It sits on your music rack lonely and unlistened. Apple could hybridize the iTunes world with the Borders world. Here's the plan: With the purchase of every iPod the buyer would receive six months of free weekly down loads, of say 12 songs or one jazz or classical work per week. The customer would come to Borders where they may or may not have purchased their iPod, to listen to the music that would potentially be downloaded. Many comfortable chairs and quality headphones await. While there, they might buy other music from iTunes, maybe a cd, book or just have coffee and meet friends. This plan would expand Apple's horizons to the 97% of Americans that don't yet have an iPod, increase music sales at Borders while using prime space that is currently languishing and create all important foot traffic in the stores. Borders has now created an incentive to counter the Amazon trend. It gives valued customer service, creates community and of course revenue for Apple and Borders. I'm sure Mr. Jobs and Mr. Ackman can work out the details of the merger. Mar 25 11:38 PM
    • Pershing Square: Buying Up Borders [view article]
      I saw (somewhere yesterday) that Borders shares would still be reasonably valued at $26. per share. If Pershing picks up the store at half of this; it is double the share price today. Shareholders would do well to avoid a panic sell and hold on untill Borders intrinsic, current and future value reflects in its sale price. The Price to Book Ratio is now drastically discounted so to speak. Mar 25 04:12 PM
    • Pershing Square: Buying Up Borders [view article]
      In looking at the different components of a Border's store, I see: 1. Books, magazines and papers 2. Coffee, beverages and nicely done cakes with a great place to sit and read, and, 3. CD's which take up about a third of a store's floor space. I would guess that the CD aspect of Border's is an area that might be slowing to a greater degree than the rest of the business as time progresses. I would like to be a mouse in the corner as the negotiations of Border's restructuring takes place. Wouldn't it be great to see the nations biggest music seller, Apple, contract space at every Border's for music sales? Imagine: With every music purchase a customer makes, she or he gets a free ipod. This is another way to frame Apple's strategy to give unlimited music for a premium with the purchase of an ipod. Mr. Jobs goes to Border's! How about it Steve? Mar 23 11:29 PM
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