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T1243

T1243
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  • Update On Prospects For Peabody Energy: New Tariffs On Sale Of Australian Coal To China [View article]
    Guat,
    Unfortunately a northern hemisphere winter will not drive global coal prices. (US domestic coal price probably) But what Peabody needs is movement in the Asian met coal price, and or the AUD.
    Or better still, a nice fat rumor about Berkshire Hathaway sweeping down to make an offer for BTU while at a 10 years low.
    Oct 17 12:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coal Market - Stay Away And Save Your Money [View article]
    Ferdi,

    If you are 12 years old, I can understand your comments. I have seen four coal price cycles and they all turn very quickly and for reasons that don't always make sense.
    Coal price will turn, and could well be on the back of the likes of Japan loosing favor with nuclear, or India closing illegal mining.
    It will turn and turn sharp. Scary sharp.
    I am happy to bet your left testicle on it. (Not mine obviously)
    T.
    Oct 17 03:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unstable global coal markets don't bode well for Peabody Energy, analyst says [View news story]
    Hi Moses,
    Yes...you may as well hold on for the long game. There is not a lot of value locking in a loss at this time.
    T.
    Oct 15 10:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unstable global coal markets don't bode well for Peabody Energy, analyst says [View news story]
    It is always a bit suspicious when a financier talks down the stock.
    It is going to be the banks that determine Peabody's future I believe. Talking the stock down could well bring a take over into play, and that could be what some banks are playing at.
    As for Peabody management, well they got themselves in a bind with the Macarthur deal. Started with them being insistent on being a coal only business, thinking Macarthur was the only synergistic buying opportunity at any price, and then trusting ArcelorMittal. But really they had little choice. The only other option was to run out existing coal assets in Australia, pick up coal assets opportunistically, and diversify via different commodities. Hang-on, that sounds like a dam good strategy to me.
    It was Greg and Eric who drove the coal only philosophy. Many advised them to diversify into other commodities, but both Greg and Eric have been both coal centric through their entire careers. Well meaning, but liking the idea of being the biggest something. Adding other commodities would have put them in the middle pack of ordinary miners. I am not sure egos could tolerate that.
    I suspect Greg likes the idea of having the biggest something! But he is the nicest coal evangelist I know.
    Oct 15 06:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Prospects For Peabody Energy: New Tariffs On Sale Of Australian Coal To China [View article]
    Your welcome Vorgriff :)
    Oct 14 02:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Prospects For Peabody Energy: New Tariffs On Sale Of Australian Coal To China [View article]
    KW,
    Your summary note suggests that Indonesian coal is not subject to the Levy. This I believe is absolutely false.
    I can only think you are being deliberately misleading to talk down $BTU share price. This is grossly shameful and unprofessional.
    I ask you to justify the statement, or retract.
    T.
    Oct 13 04:42 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teck Resources, coal names sink as China reinstates coal import tariffs [View news story]
    We are living in a zero growth world in reality. All do-able for a couple of years. But imagine us slipping into a deflation world. All hell would break loose as people hold off spending, as it will be cheap tomorrow.
    As much as people do not like the concept, China ability to fudge the numbers, manipulate the economy and change things over night is probably our only savior in globally not going negative.
    While the Chinese system has some serious negatives socially, it has some positives the US Govt could only dream of.
    Oct 10 04:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mining For Investment Returns From Rio Tinto [View article]
    Rio Tinto may decide that its best defense against another takeover approach from Glencore is buying either the largest coal mining company in the US, or the largest copper producer.
    A bid for Peabody could look tempting to Rio as a way to stymie Glencore, said Paul Gait, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein. Peabody, a $3B market Cap and $6B debt, is the cheapest it's been in more than 10 years.
    "I would be amazed if they aren't running the ruler over it," Gait said in a phone interview from London. "It would be a classic kind of defensive move by the board."
    Speculation about mining deals has intensified this week after RIO and Glencore, two of the industry's biggest companies, confirmed Glencore's informal approach about a possible merger. While Rio, valued at $US92 billion, said it's better off going it alone, a deal for Peabody’s banks could help it ward off any further advances from Glencore. RIO has just off loaded Mozambique and coal in general is out a favour. Almost like putting a rotten apple at the top of the barrel so no one buys it.
    "Freeport is the other fit as an attractive takeout candidate and would make sense for a lot of the larger-cap global miners, anyone looking to increase their copper exposure and getting some very high-margin energy assets at the same time," said Garrett Nelson, analyst at BB&T Capital Markets in Richmond, Virginia. "The stock's undervalued and they really have some world-class assets in both mining and energy."
    Spokesmen for Phoenix-based Freeport, and St Louis based Peabody both said the company doesn't comment on speculation. A representative for Rio declined to comment.
    Glencore, the $US69 billion commodities conglomerate run by billionaire Ivan Glasenberg, said this week it's no longer actively studying an offer for Rio. The company is now barred, in most cases, from making a renewed bid for six months under UK takeover rules.
    While Glencore could turn to alternative targets in the industry, a merger with Rio would create the world's largest mining company, with a market value of about $US160 billion. Rio's desire to stay independent and potentially unattractive, could lead to its own deal pursuits.
    Big departure
    Bidding for Freeport or Peabody would be a major departure for Rio's Sam Walsh. Since taking over as chief executive officer last year, he's shunned acquisitions and instead focused on cutting billions of dollars of operating costs and investments in future projects.
    "We lost our way in relation to our acquisition ability," Walsh said in December, reflecting on Rio purchases in previous years. The company paid about $US37 billion for aluminium maker Alcan in 2007 and subsequently wrote down most of the deal's value.
    Even so, a takeover-as-defence strategy wouldn't be without precedent in this year's manic deal market. Brewer SABMiller approached Heineken earlier this year in an attempt to shield itself from a possible acquisition by Anheuser-Busch InBev. In the drug industry, Allergan held talks to buy Salix Pharmaceuticals or be sold to Actavis as it tries to fight off a hostile bid from Valeant Pharmaceuticals.
    Oct 10 12:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Teck Resources, coal names sink as China reinstates coal import tariffs [View news story]
    In a separate announcement, the central government also banned coal over 16% ash and coal over 3% sulfur entering ports near polluted areas.

    They are juggling social unhappiness in the coal and steel industries, while trying to deal with the pollution problem, while trying to honor free trade commitments. A tough act, and probably only a social structure like China could achieve it.

    The world better stay praying they can.
    Oct 9 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teck Resources, coal names sink as China reinstates coal import tariffs [View news story]
    Any bye out or merger is going to be driven by the banks and major share holders looking for a better risk profile. Banks will be looking for a BTU buyer that is commodity diversified. Look at the likes of Glencore, BHP, RIO.

    On the other hand, don't be surprised to see a Berkshire Hathaway swoop in at the banks request.
    Oct 9 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could The Coking Coal Market Get Any Worse? [View instapost]
    PE, In short...YES

    China application of import levys, AUD still too high, Steel production growth in Asia negative.
    Oct 9 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy: The Best Coal Stock [View article]
    China set to levy tariffs of 3 percent to 6 percent on imports of coal as of Oct. 15.
    China had scrapped tariffs on coking coal in 2005 and on all other coal imports in 2007. China’s sudden announcement of the import levies is its latest effort to limit coal imports and follows nearly a year of intense lobbying by China’s top miners, which have pressed the government to stem a flood of cheap supplies that has inundated the domestic market and dragged local prices to a six-year low.
    China’s Ministry of Finance said in a statement on Thursday that import tariffs for anthracite coal and coking coal will return to 3 percent after having been dropped almost a decade ago, while Thermal coals will have an import tax of 6 percent. Tariffs on briquettes, a fuel manufactured from coal, and other coal-based fuels will return to 5 percent.
    Oct 9 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy: The Best Coal Stock [View article]
    Rather than hitting the nail on the head, I think you might have hit your head on a nail. The blood on the floor is alarming.
    Share price today is 10.23 as I write. Do I bye? or is this like catching a falling knife?
    There is a good chance that if the price falls below $10, banks will start looking around for a larger, more diverse company to take over. RIO, BHP, Glencore?
    Oct 9 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • India Coal Outlook - Under Pressure [View article]
    The day BTU relies on business with India to get them out of trouble, is the day they should just pack up and go home.
    Oct 9 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy declares $0.085 dividend [View news story]
    No choice really but to maintain the dividend. Otherwise they run the risk of a share price downward spiral. However, in reality with the debt level, they are borrowing money to give a dividend. Not sustainable, but probably the right thing for now.
    I wonder if a Capital Raising is around the corner to reduce debt and maybe improve the CFR?
    Jul 25 06:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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