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T1243

T1243
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  • Peabody Energy's Attempt To Get Coal Back On The Agenda: Not Successful [View article]
    Keith,

    You are being irresponsible/cute with words again my friend. US are de-Co2..ing, not "especially coal". Coal will be around long after we are both history.
    The next big push will be against low Kcal coals. High end coal will be embraced if anything.
    Nov 21 03:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy's Attempt To Get Coal Back On The Agenda: Not Successful [View article]
    Keith,

    The G20 comments on climate change does not change the volume of global coal production. Don't listen to the rhetoric, listen to the facts. But I do think we are looking at a structural shift that penalises low Kcal coals and provides a premium to high Kcal coals. Over the next few years we could see coal under 4300Kcal penalised out of the Asian market. High quality coals over 6000Kcals will find a premium and resurgence.
    I agree with you that Galilee is very unlikely to happen and time soon.
    Peabody's reluctance to diversify is puzzling, but perhaps because they just don't know anything else. But they are working hard on making more money from transporting and selling other companies coal. That is about as diversified as Peabody gets :P
    Peabody Australian focus on met coals and high energy Thermals is the correct strategy.
    The US president is never doing to be able to sell the same story at home, as what is happening in Asia. Not only because he is on his way out, but also that Powder River basin coal can not be turned off quickly or easily.
    Nov 20 05:15 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy Looks Like An Interesting Net-Net Despite Industry Slowdown [View article]
    The reduced Australian operations costs will show up in Q4 as since September the AUD slid from the mid 90s down to the mid 80s and looks like staying down.
    This is a good sign for Peabody, albeit nothing really to do with management efforts.
    The China-Australian trade deal signed this week is also a well needed shot in the arm.
    The pending international trade wars on oil production will take a focus away from coal. Saudi's seem keen to maintain production levels driving down the oil price. This is most likely in an effort to push some higher cost production out of the market.
    Nov 17 03:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody CEO defends coal's role in global economy, tries to shift debate [View news story]
    I think we can all be confident that our collective understanding the global climate condition is pathetic, and we really have no idea. Scientists unbelievably have this vision of complete understanding. Forget it!
    Having said that, I can not see any harm in treading lighter on the world if we can. Using what we have smarter and more efficiently can only makes sense. So I don't think "Emission reduction" is absolute pure BS, but lets do what makes sense and for the right reasons.
    Nov 13 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody CEO defends coal's role in global economy, tries to shift debate [View news story]
    It all comes down to transportation costs. The Ukraine infrastructure is geared to receive coal by train, and transport from Russia is the cheapest for them. Coal from RSA, USA or Australia would just not be economic. Coal from Romania or Poland is possible, but typically contracted locally.
    Nov 13 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy Post-Earnings: A Well-Run Company In A Ravaged Industry [View article]
    I feel Peabody is well run most of the time, splattered with a few clanger mistakes;
    1. Deliberate reluctance to diversify for want of being a big fish. Egos at play here! Old saying..."if being a big fish is all important, pick the right size pond". Problem here is that the pond is evaporating. being a middle sized fish in a larger pond could have been smarter.
    2. Belligerently thinking they needed Macarthur Coal at any price. Egos at play again.
    3. Trusting Arcelor Mattel not to pull out at the last minute costing $2.4b in debt. After Arcelor Mattel helped Peabody set the buy price.
    Nov 4 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Prospects For Peabody Energy: New Tariffs On Sale Of Australian Coal To China [View article]
    I can appreciate what you are doing, and what Glen is doing. I am also very confident neither know what the Central Government is doing.
    Anyway, let us end this conversation. I am getting bored by the grandstanding.
    Signing out!
    Oct 21 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Prospects For Peabody Energy: New Tariffs On Sale Of Australian Coal To China [View article]
    Unfortunately, Glenn would not know. More the point, the Central Government can change the rules at the drop of a hat. They can, and will apply the levy to any coal if they want to. A FTA means little more than politics.
    I still think it is at best mischievous to suggest BTU position is worse because of the Indonesian FTA.
    Oct 20 10:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Prospects For Peabody Energy: New Tariffs On Sale Of Australian Coal To China [View article]
    KW,
    Apologies on my part. I have been struggling also to find any real evidence of who is and isn't paying the levy.
    I found some suggestion that the levy will be paid by the user as part of their quarterly tax collection. I that case, a free trade agreement might not be relevant.
    Oct 20 02:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Prospects For Peabody Energy: New Tariffs On Sale Of Australian Coal To China [View article]
    Guat,
    Unfortunately a northern hemisphere winter will not drive global coal prices. (US domestic coal price probably) But what Peabody needs is movement in the Asian met coal price, and or the AUD.
    Or better still, a nice fat rumor about Berkshire Hathaway sweeping down to make an offer for BTU while at a 10 years low.
    Oct 17 12:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coal Market - Stay Away And Save Your Money [View article]
    Ferdi,

    If you are 12 years old, I can understand your comments. I have seen four coal price cycles and they all turn very quickly and for reasons that don't always make sense.
    Coal price will turn, and could well be on the back of the likes of Japan loosing favor with nuclear, or India closing illegal mining.
    It will turn and turn sharp. Scary sharp.
    I am happy to bet your left testicle on it. (Not mine obviously)
    T.
    Oct 17 03:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Unstable global coal markets don't bode well for Peabody Energy, analyst says [View news story]
    Hi Moses,
    Yes...you may as well hold on for the long game. There is not a lot of value locking in a loss at this time.
    T.
    Oct 15 10:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unstable global coal markets don't bode well for Peabody Energy, analyst says [View news story]
    It is always a bit suspicious when a financier talks down the stock.
    It is going to be the banks that determine Peabody's future I believe. Talking the stock down could well bring a take over into play, and that could be what some banks are playing at.
    As for Peabody management, well they got themselves in a bind with the Macarthur deal. Started with them being insistent on being a coal only business, thinking Macarthur was the only synergistic buying opportunity at any price, and then trusting ArcelorMittal. But really they had little choice. The only other option was to run out existing coal assets in Australia, pick up coal assets opportunistically, and diversify via different commodities. Hang-on, that sounds like a dam good strategy to me.
    It was Greg and Eric who drove the coal only philosophy. Many advised them to diversify into other commodities, but both Greg and Eric have been both coal centric through their entire careers. Well meaning, but liking the idea of being the biggest something. Adding other commodities would have put them in the middle pack of ordinary miners. I am not sure egos could tolerate that.
    I suspect Greg likes the idea of having the biggest something! But he is the nicest coal evangelist I know.
    Oct 15 06:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Prospects For Peabody Energy: New Tariffs On Sale Of Australian Coal To China [View article]
    Your welcome Vorgriff :)
    Oct 14 02:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Prospects For Peabody Energy: New Tariffs On Sale Of Australian Coal To China [View article]
    KW,
    Your summary note suggests that Indonesian coal is not subject to the Levy. This I believe is absolutely false.
    I can only think you are being deliberately misleading to talk down $BTU share price. This is grossly shameful and unprofessional.
    I ask you to justify the statement, or retract.
    T.
    Oct 13 04:42 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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