pacalis's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/167340/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/179381-google-s-open-system-treatise?source=feed#comment-817985 817985
Yay open-ness! Boo individual privacy and property rights! ]]> Tue, 22 Dec 2009 20:53:38 -0500
Yay open-ness! Boo individual privacy and property rights! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/178291-why-i-would-not-bet-on-iphone-over-android?source=feed#comment-815007 815007 www.google.com/mobile/...

Then there's streetview.. only on Android.

The app marketplace on apple, while very profitable, will not drive the adoption decision, where as streetview, goggles can. ]]> Sun, 20 Dec 2009 18:09:12 -0500 www.google.com/mobile/...

Then there's streetview.. only on Android.

The app marketplace on apple, while very profitable, will not drive the adoption decision, where as streetview, goggles can. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/178789-continuing-to-pay-for-an-underwater-home-conditioning-morality-or-naivete?source=feed#comment-813814 813814
It's the difference between borrowing $100 from a friend on your word vs. borrowing $100 and having 20 minutes to make it to the ATM or he keeps your rolex.

On Dec 19 03:37 AM T. Boone wrote:

> Bailing out bankers and institutions who "walk away" from agreements
> vs. individual homeowners.....hmmm.... a couple of thoughts:
>
> 1). Two wrongs don't make a right.
> 2). "Let your yes be yes and your no be no"-- Jesus Christ
> 3). To a non-Christian or non Jew, tithing is a financially unsound
>
> thing to do as well.
> If one is truly centrally focused on the Kingdom of God vs. focused
> on the world, then one will act accordingly. I wouldn't expect Mr.
> Brent White at the University of Arizona whom you excerpt would understand.
> To those who would wish to understand this curious behavioral "phenomenon",
> I recommend reading AND BELIEVING the Bible.]]> Sat, 19 Dec 2009 18:24:02 -0500
It's the difference between borrowing $100 from a friend on your word vs. borrowing $100 and having 20 minutes to make it to the ATM or he keeps your rolex.

On Dec 19 03:37 AM T. Boone wrote:

> Bailing out bankers and institutions who "walk away" from agreements
> vs. individual homeowners.....hmmm.... a couple of thoughts:
>
> 1). Two wrongs don't make a right.
> 2). "Let your yes be yes and your no be no"-- Jesus Christ
> 3). To a non-Christian or non Jew, tithing is a financially unsound
>
> thing to do as well.
> If one is truly centrally focused on the Kingdom of God vs. focused
> on the world, then one will act accordingly. I wouldn't expect Mr.
> Brent White at the University of Arizona whom you excerpt would understand.
> To those who would wish to understand this curious behavioral "phenomenon",
> I recommend reading AND BELIEVING the Bible.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/178789-continuing-to-pay-for-an-underwater-home-conditioning-morality-or-naivete?source=feed#comment-812904 812904
I don't see any moral argument - if you stop payment the lender is typically "made whole" through the contingencies spelled out in the contract. That is the terms of non-payment have already been accepted by the lender at the time of the lending. So if there is no moral obligation to the lender, because they have already agreed to contingencies at time of the contract as part of the contract, I don't see who the moral obligation might be to toward.]]> Fri, 18 Dec 2009 17:59:09 -0500
I don't see any moral argument - if you stop payment the lender is typically "made whole" through the contingencies spelled out in the contract. That is the terms of non-payment have already been accepted by the lender at the time of the lending. So if there is no moral obligation to the lender, because they have already agreed to contingencies at time of the contract as part of the contract, I don't see who the moral obligation might be to toward.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/178291-why-i-would-not-bet-on-iphone-over-android?source=feed#comment-811282 811282
Google has the an open device, an open OS, as the article points out. But it also has a huge internet infrastructure, supports some of the biggest apps used on all platforms, can use wifi/wimax, and have licenses on over-air networks and people really think that google can not disrupt the iphone or at&t over time? The only thing it's missing is good peripherals - but then again the droid alarm clock and gps plug-ins are better than anything ihome has ever made.

So here's whats going to happen - google is going to optimize it's app offerings and appeal to people that don't want to lock-in to a fee for service revenue model. This is the key. That means geeks (i.e. lead users) to start, they'll demand higher levels of performance, build an app ecosystem which this device is optimized for, and eventually the device will move down the curve to the consumer. If everything we know about network effects is right, this should happen, although iphone and att won't really notice it until a realatively quick market tip. I'm guessing 3 years and we see android as a serious competitor to RIM and Apple.

And yes, it is about the apps baby. And Apple's 40% cut in the app market is going to be fleeting especially given their biggest apps are free and run on google, facebook, myspace etc.. architectures.

On Dec 16 01:29 PM ldgregg wrote:

> Consumers do not care about open architecture. What's driving the
> phenomenal sales of iPhone is a perfect combination of functionality,
> utility, elegance, and marketing.
> ...
> Today, it's all about the Apps, baby!
> ]]> Thu, 17 Dec 2009 17:53:16 -0500
Google has the an open device, an open OS, as the article points out. But it also has a huge internet infrastructure, supports some of the biggest apps used on all platforms, can use wifi/wimax, and have licenses on over-air networks and people really think that google can not disrupt the iphone or at&t over time? The only thing it's missing is good peripherals - but then again the droid alarm clock and gps plug-ins are better than anything ihome has ever made.

So here's whats going to happen - google is going to optimize it's app offerings and appeal to people that don't want to lock-in to a fee for service revenue model. This is the key. That means geeks (i.e. lead users) to start, they'll demand higher levels of performance, build an app ecosystem which this device is optimized for, and eventually the device will move down the curve to the consumer. If everything we know about network effects is right, this should happen, although iphone and att won't really notice it until a realatively quick market tip. I'm guessing 3 years and we see android as a serious competitor to RIM and Apple.

And yes, it is about the apps baby. And Apple's 40% cut in the app market is going to be fleeting especially given their biggest apps are free and run on google, facebook, myspace etc.. architectures.

On Dec 16 01:29 PM ldgregg wrote:

> Consumers do not care about open architecture. What's driving the
> phenomenal sales of iPhone is a perfect combination of functionality,
> utility, elegance, and marketing.
> ...
> Today, it's all about the Apps, baby!
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/178574-time-magazine-s-kiss-of-death-you?source=feed#comment-810835 810835 Thu, 17 Dec 2009 12:20:57 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/178574-time-magazine-s-kiss-of-death-you?source=feed#comment-810834 810834 Thu, 17 Dec 2009 12:20:49 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/178543-obama-draws-a-blank-on-how-banks-really-work?source=feed#comment-809612 809612
So no. Bad idea. ]]> Wed, 16 Dec 2009 22:56:42 -0500
So no. Bad idea. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/178469-ben-bernanke-person-of-the-year?source=feed#comment-808553 808553
The credit squeeze is occurring because with the banks with bad assets coming off the books have been in the short term squeezing customers as they have been protected against higher risk debt. So now everyone has seen their borrowing costs substantially increase even though rates are extremely low. The uncertainty of inflation arises from the huge shifts in money supply and uncertainty about where the money will end up. What I see, this great pile of boomers that had expected to start transitioning out of the work force have moved into a holding pattern with their real property and don't want to move into cash/ other assets. You see this in a lot of markets where housing inventories are still very low in middle class neighborhoods. ]]> Wed, 16 Dec 2009 12:23:36 -0500
The credit squeeze is occurring because with the banks with bad assets coming off the books have been in the short term squeezing customers as they have been protected against higher risk debt. So now everyone has seen their borrowing costs substantially increase even though rates are extremely low. The uncertainty of inflation arises from the huge shifts in money supply and uncertainty about where the money will end up. What I see, this great pile of boomers that had expected to start transitioning out of the work force have moved into a holding pattern with their real property and don't want to move into cash/ other assets. You see this in a lot of markets where housing inventories are still very low in middle class neighborhoods. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/178257-volcker-s-wake-up-call-spread-the-word?source=feed#comment-807441 807441 2. “I have found very little evidence that vast amounts of innovation in financial markets in recent years have had a visible effect on the productivity of the economy”

I agree with the moving around rents and lack of productivity, the main points. But if rents have vastly increased, by definition productivity must also have increased, everything else (outputs/inputs) being equal. Otherwise there is an argument that financial engineering has increased the scales of inputs and outputs (productivity fixed) thus leading to rent increases, but this is not what I think he was saying, is it?

Or does he mean the variability of rents has increased?

]]> Tue, 15 Dec 2009 19:33:32 -0500 2. “I have found very little evidence that vast amounts of innovation in financial markets in recent years have had a visible effect on the productivity of the economy”

I agree with the moving around rents and lack of productivity, the main points. But if rents have vastly increased, by definition productivity must also have increased, everything else (outputs/inputs) being equal. Otherwise there is an argument that financial engineering has increased the scales of inputs and outputs (productivity fixed) thus leading to rent increases, but this is not what I think he was saying, is it?

Or does he mean the variability of rents has increased?

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177865-the-google-phone-unlocked-confirmed-and-more-details?source=feed#comment-805301 805301 So google has the an open device, an open OS, huge internet infrastructure, supports some of the biggest apps used on all platforms, can use wifi/wimax, and have licenses on over-air networks and people really think that google can not disrupt the iphone or at&t over time? The only thing it's missing is good peripherals - but then again the droid alarm clock and gps plug-ins are better than anything ihome has ever made.

So here's whats going to happen - google is going to optimize it's app offerings and appeal to people that don't want to lock-in to a fee for service revenue model. That means geeks (i.e. lead users) to start, they'll demand higher levels of performance, build an app ecosystem which this device is optimized for, and eventually the device will move down the curve to the consumer. If everything we know about network effects is right, this should happen, although iphone and att won't really notice it until a realatively quick market tip. I'm guessing 3 years and we see android as a serious competitor to RIM and Apple. ]]> Mon, 14 Dec 2009 13:29:22 -0500 So google has the an open device, an open OS, huge internet infrastructure, supports some of the biggest apps used on all platforms, can use wifi/wimax, and have licenses on over-air networks and people really think that google can not disrupt the iphone or at&t over time? The only thing it's missing is good peripherals - but then again the droid alarm clock and gps plug-ins are better than anything ihome has ever made.

So here's whats going to happen - google is going to optimize it's app offerings and appeal to people that don't want to lock-in to a fee for service revenue model. That means geeks (i.e. lead users) to start, they'll demand higher levels of performance, build an app ecosystem which this device is optimized for, and eventually the device will move down the curve to the consumer. If everything we know about network effects is right, this should happen, although iphone and att won't really notice it until a realatively quick market tip. I'm guessing 3 years and we see android as a serious competitor to RIM and Apple. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177790-how-buying-a-home-is-gambling?source=feed#comment-802007 802007 Unfortunately I can not fit my family into my parents basement, so indeed I have "invested" in a home.

But in the adult world, when faced with a guaranteed predictable loss on capital from renting, I have chosen the consumptive expenditure that retains some capital, a mortgage. Furthermore, on the whole, using a mortgage reduces ones risk over time and their total capital requirement (you pay down principle, your exposure shrinks, and your consumption, as interest, shrinks as principle is reduced). So, given a necessary and predictable expenditure on "shelter" in the end I am investing and not gambling.]]> Fri, 11 Dec 2009 14:38:31 -0500 Unfortunately I can not fit my family into my parents basement, so indeed I have "invested" in a home.

But in the adult world, when faced with a guaranteed predictable loss on capital from renting, I have chosen the consumptive expenditure that retains some capital, a mortgage. Furthermore, on the whole, using a mortgage reduces ones risk over time and their total capital requirement (you pay down principle, your exposure shrinks, and your consumption, as interest, shrinks as principle is reduced). So, given a necessary and predictable expenditure on "shelter" in the end I am investing and not gambling.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177246-contrarianism-the-new-consensus?source=feed#comment-798716 798716 Wed, 09 Dec 2009 18:06:34 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/176783-google-music-pays-for-listeners-on-bing?source=feed#comment-794938 794938 Mon, 07 Dec 2009 16:26:46 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/176855-the-destruction-of-the-dollar-it-s-nearly-inevitable?source=feed#comment-794633 794633
The US mortgage system is designed to flip. The banks make loads of fees off of points and other charges with Fannie and Freddie holding the loan, or they package the loans and sell it to some retarded pension fund or European bank. The more transactions the US banks make, and the less they hold, the more they profit.]]> Mon, 07 Dec 2009 14:10:07 -0500
The US mortgage system is designed to flip. The banks make loads of fees off of points and other charges with Fannie and Freddie holding the loan, or they package the loans and sell it to some retarded pension fund or European bank. The more transactions the US banks make, and the less they hold, the more they profit.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/176654-want-to-solve-the-housing-crisis-look-to-the-north?source=feed#comment-794631 794631
The US mortgage system is designed to flip. The banks make loads of fees off of points and other charges with Fannie and Freddie holding the loan, or they package the loans and sell it to some pension fund or European bank. The more transactions the US banks make, and the less they hold, the more they profit.

]]> Mon, 07 Dec 2009 14:09:24 -0500
The US mortgage system is designed to flip. The banks make loads of fees off of points and other charges with Fannie and Freddie holding the loan, or they package the loans and sell it to some pension fund or European bank. The more transactions the US banks make, and the less they hold, the more they profit.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/176654-want-to-solve-the-housing-crisis-look-to-the-north?source=feed#comment-794628 794628
The US mortgage system is designed to flip. The banks make loads of fees off of points and other charges with Fannie and Freddie holding the loan, or they package the loans and sell it to some retarded pension fund or European bank. The more transactions the US banks make, and the less they hold, the more they profit. ]]> Mon, 07 Dec 2009 14:09:08 -0500
The US mortgage system is designed to flip. The banks make loads of fees off of points and other charges with Fannie and Freddie holding the loan, or they package the loans and sell it to some retarded pension fund or European bank. The more transactions the US banks make, and the less they hold, the more they profit. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/176064-new-york-fed-treasury-spread-model-zero-chance-of-a-double-dip-recession?source=feed#comment-788611 788611 1. two of the five peaks don't have a recession associated with them,
2. Of the peaks that do have a recession associated with them the recession comes at the end of the first, start of the second, end of the third.
3. The slopes are so steep at the start of the spread that even if the yield curve was a good indicator, you would probably miss the boat from the indicator.

On Dec 02 03:11 PM Perry Sadorsky wrote:

> Actually, the yield curve (or Treasury spread model as it is referred
> to here) is fairly reliable. Smartmoney.com has a "Living yield curve"
> exhibit where you can see how it has changed on a monthly basis for
> the past 30 years.]]> Thu, 03 Dec 2009 11:59:06 -0500 1. two of the five peaks don't have a recession associated with them,
2. Of the peaks that do have a recession associated with them the recession comes at the end of the first, start of the second, end of the third.
3. The slopes are so steep at the start of the spread that even if the yield curve was a good indicator, you would probably miss the boat from the indicator.

On Dec 02 03:11 PM Perry Sadorsky wrote:

> Actually, the yield curve (or Treasury spread model as it is referred
> to here) is fairly reliable. Smartmoney.com has a "Living yield curve"
> exhibit where you can see how it has changed on a monthly basis for
> the past 30 years.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/176064-new-york-fed-treasury-spread-model-zero-chance-of-a-double-dip-recession?source=feed#comment-786624 786624 Wed, 02 Dec 2009 12:32:50 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/175644-how-larry-summers-lost-harvard-1-8-billion?source=feed#comment-785003 785003
What Summers did was risk and lose some of the medium term operating funds of the University. It's equivalent to McDonalds taking the money they use to buy raw hamburger and invest in credit-default swaps.

And the article it is not about the endowment returns, it's about how Summers risked Harvard's operating cash.

On Dec 01 02:16 PM PompanoFrog wrote:

> I can't believe there is not one investment professional that has
> replied to this. The investment results achieved by the Harvard Endowment
> were exceptional. The losses in the last two years are acceptable
> given the huge size of the portfolio and the long term returns. If
> you lower long term returns how are you helping the University achieve
> its long term goals?
>
> Anyone who has any experience with long term investing knows there
> will be losing years with the best of strategy mixes. I understand
> the desire to attack Summers as Obama's main economic guru, but this
> is the wrong way to do it. This repeats the childish dribble that
> passes for business journalism written by english majors.]]> Tue, 01 Dec 2009 16:42:13 -0500
What Summers did was risk and lose some of the medium term operating funds of the University. It's equivalent to McDonalds taking the money they use to buy raw hamburger and invest in credit-default swaps.

And the article it is not about the endowment returns, it's about how Summers risked Harvard's operating cash.

On Dec 01 02:16 PM PompanoFrog wrote:

> I can't believe there is not one investment professional that has
> replied to this. The investment results achieved by the Harvard Endowment
> were exceptional. The losses in the last two years are acceptable
> given the huge size of the portfolio and the long term returns. If
> you lower long term returns how are you helping the University achieve
> its long term goals?
>
> Anyone who has any experience with long term investing knows there
> will be losing years with the best of strategy mixes. I understand
> the desire to attack Summers as Obama's main economic guru, but this
> is the wrong way to do it. This repeats the childish dribble that
> passes for business journalism written by english majors.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175644-how-larry-summers-lost-harvard-1-8-billion?source=feed#comment-784659 784659
On Nov 30 08:03 PM D. McHattie wrote:
> Why anyone would choose to work with a man of such unrestrained arrogance
> and outright incompetence defies explanation.]]> Tue, 01 Dec 2009 13:08:05 -0500
On Nov 30 08:03 PM D. McHattie wrote:
> Why anyone would choose to work with a man of such unrestrained arrogance
> and outright incompetence defies explanation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175644-how-larry-summers-lost-harvard-1-8-billion?source=feed#comment-784632 784632 The article you link does not support your position and while you are correct about Harvard's impressive endowment growth over the years, that's a red herring from the topic at hand. First, the major problem is that cash was diverted as matter of policy into longer term investments. Summers demanded a 10% return on operating cash after a period of very high return and in a 2008 environment. To do this they put the operating cash in swaps that turned out to be difficult and expensive to unwind, even though they were decent investments in the long run. This was the main reason behind harvard's bond issue a year ago reuters.com/articl....

Second, Harvard's mismanagement caused a shut down construction of the new Allston campus. That means the long term strategic expansion of Harvard, which has been a couple decades and several Harvard presidents in the making, isn't happening in the foreseeable future.

So, in short, Summers' walloped Harvard on both the short term and long term.


On Nov 30 10:48 AM Alex Filonov wrote:

> Felix, you should check facts before making such statements.
> Summers left Harvard several years ago. Losses happened in 2008,
> when he was long gone. Before that, endowment money made a fortune.
> Even now, long term internal rate of return on endowment account
> of Harvard is positive since Summers advised moving cash into endowment.
> It's around 8.9% in the last 10 years, according to this link: ritholtz.com/blog/.../
>
>
> In short: Summers recommended risky strategy, which worked.]]> Tue, 01 Dec 2009 12:59:40 -0500 The article you link does not support your position and while you are correct about Harvard's impressive endowment growth over the years, that's a red herring from the topic at hand. First, the major problem is that cash was diverted as matter of policy into longer term investments. Summers demanded a 10% return on operating cash after a period of very high return and in a 2008 environment. To do this they put the operating cash in swaps that turned out to be difficult and expensive to unwind, even though they were decent investments in the long run. This was the main reason behind harvard's bond issue a year ago reuters.com/articl....

Second, Harvard's mismanagement caused a shut down construction of the new Allston campus. That means the long term strategic expansion of Harvard, which has been a couple decades and several Harvard presidents in the making, isn't happening in the foreseeable future.

So, in short, Summers' walloped Harvard on both the short term and long term.


On Nov 30 10:48 AM Alex Filonov wrote:

> Felix, you should check facts before making such statements.
> Summers left Harvard several years ago. Losses happened in 2008,
> when he was long gone. Before that, endowment money made a fortune.
> Even now, long term internal rate of return on endowment account
> of Harvard is positive since Summers advised moving cash into endowment.
> It's around 8.9% in the last 10 years, according to this link: ritholtz.com/blog/.../
>
>
> In short: Summers recommended risky strategy, which worked.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175496-is-dubai-s-default-a-black-swan-event?source=feed#comment-779916 779916
PS If you buy 4 nights at the grand millennium hotel this week you can get complimentary ski tickets. Enjoy!]]> Fri, 27 Nov 2009 16:04:49 -0500
PS If you buy 4 nights at the grand millennium hotel this week you can get complimentary ski tickets. Enjoy!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175403-being-thankful-for-bullish-economic-data?source=feed#comment-778789 778789

On Nov 26 04:36 PM steveo77 wrote:

> Ok, I am going to do a little victory lap here.....
>
> Black Swans do not drift in, they are delivered by a cruise missile
> in the middle of the night, holidays, or on the weekend.
>
> oahutrading.blogspot.c...
>
> oahutrading.blogspot.c...
> ]]> Thu, 26 Nov 2009 18:43:05 -0500

On Nov 26 04:36 PM steveo77 wrote:

> Ok, I am going to do a little victory lap here.....
>
> Black Swans do not drift in, they are delivered by a cruise missile
> in the middle of the night, holidays, or on the weekend.
>
> oahutrading.blogspot.c...
>
> oahutrading.blogspot.c...
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175403-being-thankful-for-bullish-economic-data?source=feed#comment-778700 778700 www.reuters.com/articl...). That pretty much suggests that the recent positive housing data is temporary and due to the stimulus and low (unsustainable) interest rates.

As others have pointed out, 466,000 jobs lost in October is not, as you put it, "signs of life", particularly as we're moving into the holiday buying season and retailers have a lot of stock to move. I think we're going to see greater than average retail hiring, so a brief downtrend in new unemployment, followed by a very high uptick in January. ]]> Thu, 26 Nov 2009 15:28:41 -0500 www.reuters.com/articl...). That pretty much suggests that the recent positive housing data is temporary and due to the stimulus and low (unsustainable) interest rates.

As others have pointed out, 466,000 jobs lost in October is not, as you put it, "signs of life", particularly as we're moving into the holiday buying season and retailers have a lot of stock to move. I think we're going to see greater than average retail hiring, so a brief downtrend in new unemployment, followed by a very high uptick in January. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175245-do-black-swans-negate-option-premiums?source=feed#comment-778636 778636
Written another way, put buyers on the index may be losing because the re-balancing reduces volatility in the index (through selection/ survivorship bias), whereas put buyers on individual stocks might be winning because on the whole shocks to the negative are much more common (fatter negative tail on the distribution of returns). Thoughts?




On Nov 25 11:35 PM Surly Trader wrote:

> You are correct in saying that the tails are fatter if you held the
> individual names in the index and did not rebalance. Since we are
> trading options specifically on the index which is rebalanced (and
> stocks are replaced) then the spread shown represents actual results.
>
>
> As for showing these results on individual stock options...it is
> difficult. I have seen studies from investment banks that show similar
> results. The problem comes with the immense amount of data and illiquidity
> of single name options. I can tell you that selling implied volatility
> on just one or two names is not a good idea ;-) That also means
> that you need more investable money to implement a multi-single stock
> delta neutral hedging strategy.]]> Thu, 26 Nov 2009 13:54:09 -0500
Written another way, put buyers on the index may be losing because the re-balancing reduces volatility in the index (through selection/ survivorship bias), whereas put buyers on individual stocks might be winning because on the whole shocks to the negative are much more common (fatter negative tail on the distribution of returns). Thoughts?




On Nov 25 11:35 PM Surly Trader wrote:

> You are correct in saying that the tails are fatter if you held the
> individual names in the index and did not rebalance. Since we are
> trading options specifically on the index which is rebalanced (and
> stocks are replaced) then the spread shown represents actual results.
>
>
> As for showing these results on individual stock options...it is
> difficult. I have seen studies from investment banks that show similar
> results. The problem comes with the immense amount of data and illiquidity
> of single name options. I can tell you that selling implied volatility
> on just one or two names is not a good idea ;-) That also means
> that you need more investable money to implement a multi-single stock
> delta neutral hedging strategy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175245-do-black-swans-negate-option-premiums?source=feed#comment-777500 777500

On Nov 25 10:00 AM I'm too Complex wrote:

> - Then, you bring up Boudarengo's work and I am starting to think
> you missed the Black Swan's point.The Black swan is on its whole about Statistical regress fallacy: our belief that the structure
> of probability can be derived from data.
> ie: Believing the future can be derived from the past.
>
> Historical data, as the one you bring up to illustrate your point,
> as one problem. It's historical.Time series analysis is irrelevant
> in the estimation of Black Swans.]]> Wed, 25 Nov 2009 14:25:35 -0500

On Nov 25 10:00 AM I'm too Complex wrote:

> - Then, you bring up Boudarengo's work and I am starting to think
> you missed the Black Swan's point.The Black swan is on its whole about Statistical regress fallacy: our belief that the structure
> of probability can be derived from data.
> ie: Believing the future can be derived from the past.
>
> Historical data, as the one you bring up to illustrate your point,
> as one problem. It's historical.Time series analysis is irrelevant
> in the estimation of Black Swans.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175076-a-year-after-lehman-we-remain-at-risk?source=feed#comment-776024 776024
"Two years after Bear Sterns: We Remain at Risk"]]> Tue, 24 Nov 2009 18:51:10 -0500
"Two years after Bear Sterns: We Remain at Risk"]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171715-does-steve-jobs-deserve-fortune-s-ceo-of-the-decade-award?source=feed#comment-750993 750993
On Nov 06 08:48 PM None-Too-Great Hits wrote:

> I too have often wondered how the Stanford officials on the podium
> felt when Steve mentioned that he had never graduated from college
> himself. Yesterday I was looking a CNN/Fortune's article on the top
> 40 execs under the age of 40, and a good portion of them are only
> high school graduates with perhaps some college.]]> Sun, 08 Nov 2009 13:37:41 -0500
On Nov 06 08:48 PM None-Too-Great Hits wrote:

> I too have often wondered how the Stanford officials on the podium
> felt when Steve mentioned that he had never graduated from college
> himself. Yesterday I was looking a CNN/Fortune's article on the top
> 40 execs under the age of 40, and a good portion of them are only
> high school graduates with perhaps some college.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170457-cramer-does-it-again-with-cit-call?source=feed#comment-747025 747025
On Nov 05 03:41 PM consumeronstrike wrote:

> Some people want to gamble and some people want to invest. I would much rather spend my time buying pieces of solid companies and building up my dividend income over time than speculating on price movements.]]> Thu, 05 Nov 2009 18:04:01 -0500
On Nov 05 03:41 PM consumeronstrike wrote:

> Some people want to gamble and some people want to invest. I would much rather spend my time buying pieces of solid companies and building up my dividend income over time than speculating on price movements.]]>