pacalis

$200 Oil Is Coming While We Waste a Perfectly Good Crisis (Part 3)

I commend the author for bringing these peices togehter. Like any complex argument, the author is going to be wrong on some points over time, but anyone predicting stable oil prices at $40 -$60, a historically huge range btw, isn't paying attention (even Daniel Yergin, of whom I'm a great fan).

Volatility is up and the economy is experiencing massive shocks daily. It's absurd to think that we've somehow hit some predictable macro-economic equilibrium when there are so many enomously disturbing trends with yet unknowable feedback. It's absurd, but I wouldn't be the slightest but surprised if we see $200 oil sometime in the next 5 years. And I would be surprised if doesn't move substantiually out of $40 and $60 over the same period.