redbaron

How's the Economy Doing? November's 'Look Under the Hood'

It is no surprise that Y/Y comparisons are down, but it occurs to me that you are not comparing to the bottom on each of your data points. It seems obvious that we have bounced off the bottom, and it also seems obvious that last year was higher on each of your data points, as your research confirms. None of that gives any insight into the future, however.

Ebay is getting beat by Amazon, and I know nothing about your other two stocks. With the commodities going through the roof, one would think some ownership in that area would be advisable.

I am bullish on the market, but think the article does not make alot of sense to me. Certainly nothing that I can use to invest wisely.

High Gold Prices: It's the Oil, Stupid

'Furthermore, Secretary of State Clinton has overtly threatened Iran with nuclear obliteration.'

This is bogus, as Iran's nuclear program started way before Clinton was Sec. of State. Why not use the Republican equivalent, instead of Clinton, as the Bushies had way more to do with the Iranian nuclear program than anything the current administration has done.

Global Outage at eBay: Seller Confidence Shaken as Holidays Approach

Scot, I have had to increase my b&m exposure to try to cover loses from eBay decreases, but so far, that seems to be working. From what I can tell from my small little branch of the tree, most other small sellers are in a similar position. One would think it a better strategy to help all sellers increase exposure, but that is sure not what eBay is doing.

Our thanks to you for what you do, Scot.

Global Outage at eBay: Seller Confidence Shaken as Holidays Approach

Listing numbers tell you nothing, if the search function doesn't work and buyers can't find your items. The sell through rate is apparently much worse than in the past, and that is just one of the problems. And what does eBay do here at the most critical time of the year for sellers, make some more changes that take their search functionality down. Sellers have asked eBay since the beginning to leave it alone at this time of the year, but to this long time seller (1996), it sure looks like they have again ignored that simple request from sellers.

For those uninformed on recent eBay changes, the Diamond Sellers are those sellers of mass merchandise, mostly from other corporate sites, who pay little or no fees to get their millions of items listed, thus raising the total listing numbers, while the small sellers get their listing rates raised, and their search results lowered to near to nothing.

Thanks again, eBay.

Ethanol Producer CDS/Equity Relationship

Good thoughts, but first a question: How much do you spend to move a commodity like DDS, with it's very low valuation per pound (or per ton, as you might prefer), around the world, or around the country?

This question is at the economic heart of all the talk about biomass alternate energy, ethanol, algae energy, and all the other alternate fuel sources.

If at the end of all the research on this subject, actual economic realistic solutions are found to some of these currently researched proposal and ideas, and it cost more in terms of energy input to dry the material, and move it around the country than the actual energy recouped from the developed process, the economic reality is that you have developed a money losing process.

I have been involved in many of these economic models, and many of these research projects input the cost of ingredients as next to zero in the formula calculations. I understand that when we are throwing something away, one is tempted to rationalize the cost down to zero, or close to zero, but the reality is that when you begin to process this material by drying it, and moving it around the world, or country, or county, or wherever, the actual cost of the material is no longer zero.

As an example of this principle at work, consider the cost of moving corn from the corn belt, to another location outside of the corn belt. When a former employer built a feed plant in southern GA and found the local corn supply to be less than satisfactory (due to aflatoxin content) for animal feed use, corn had to be hauled from the Ohio River region, all the way to southern GA. That transportation added close to a dollar a bushel to the corn (at that time), and substantially increased the cost of corn in the feed formulas. The same principle is at work with some of the recently constructed ethanol plants that were built away from the corn belt and have already been shut down.

Again, how much do you spend to move something that is essentially worthless? Can you afford to move it around the world?

Ethanol vs. Natural Gas or Coal: Comparison Not Even Close

Great article, as it summarizes the situation, but why not emphasize more consumption of the huge quantities of natural gas recently found in this country? IMHO, NG has to play a larger and larger role in the US's energy future because it is cheap, it is clean, and it is ours. (quoting TBoone).

Jamie Dimon Makes Best Case for Not Breaking Up Big Banks

Well said, Michael Clark. I agree.

The Compelling Case for Converting Adams Express into an Active ETF

There are plenty of other well managed CEFs, many of them trading at very large discounts to use to replace ADX in any portfolio. I am not married to ADX, and could use RVT, HQL, FGI, PEO, or any number of other CEFs to replace ADX, should it be opened ended or converted to an ETF. Such a possibility is why I bought ADX in the first place, and management's interest is the only reason I can see that one would oppose such a move. I can see why management would be opposed, but why would investors/owners be opposed?

The Compelling Case for Converting Adams Express into an Active ETF

Great Idea! I hope it happens. Disclosure: (perhaps not needed given my stated position), long ADX in all accounts.

If converting ADX is good, would not converting PEO (Petroleum and Resources) to an ETF be even better? PEO is a sister fund to ADX. I'm long PEO also. PEO is one of ADX's largest holdings.

Algae Biofuels Have a Promising Future

Energy out, must be significantly more than energy in, or this won't work. Too many of these projects result in less energy output, than input, and only work with subsidies. Ethanol is an example of that concept, IMHO.

Skype's Legal Drama Ends: It's Time to Start Innovating

The best thing eBay could do now for the stock and shareholders, would be to bring in new management, IMHO. It is difficult for me to see how shareholders are going to be rewarded with the game plan current management has implemented. You can't bring more buyers to the site by reducing individual sellers and their unique merchandise. It is the unique merchandise that many individual sellers bring to the site, that made eBay successful in the past, and the site will not regain it's lost lustre until new management is in place with that kind of vision. The current site is trying to replicate Amazon, and is finding it hard to do so successfully, when the right model, IMHO, is to get back to it's roots. Again, IMHO.

Former Citi CEO John S. Reed: Mea Culpa

Bringing back Glass-Speagall is certainly an idea that I would support. And the sooner the better. It is growing increasingly apparent that we would go right back and make the same mistakes again, without some barrier between the investment and banking sides. Why wait? Lets do it now. We know it was a helpful thing before, so there is no question on that end.

For Your Perusal: The Glory of Free Market Oil Supply

But what if the chart is showing a long term trend, and they are actuallying finding less oil? It is a certainty that price was not limiting production during this period of time. Indeed, if it was not price, what was it that resulted in lower production of oil in the free market world? We won't know for sure immediately, but what if peak oil has already happened? What then? So many of the pundits want to argue against this situation, but I think it is happening.

Finding Small Smart Grid Plays

What JCI products are used, or potentially used, in the smart grid? I own the stock, and was unaware of this connection. Here I have been looking for such a stock, and I already own it. Could the author or anyone else share more information on the JCI smart grid products, and how they work within the smart grid connection?

Betting on Natural Gas, Part II: Investing Ideas

While I can't claim any particular expertise on the subject, we are long COP, XTO, HGT, and a few others as well. We think that one should try to have some income from these investments, while waiting for the strategy to work out.

Natural gas has to be part of our country's overall energy policy, or so we think, because, 1) we have so much of it, 2), it burns clean, 3) we don't have to import it. We need to be doing more working toward adapting this fuel for transportation uses. We are also long CLNE, but that of course does not generate any income.