redbaron

Galleon Group's 50 Largest Holdings

Short eBay, perhaps? I have done so successfully a couple of times in the past, but have no position currently. They report earnings next week, or so I just read; perhaps we won't have long to wait to see how this one plays out.

I need a good short in my portfolio now, given my overall long positions, so may have to give this some more thought. Better think quickly!

Has eBay Turned a Growth Corner?

My business continues to decline, but I mostly use the auction format for my small antiques and collectibles. In most years, our business picks up from Oct-Jan, and it will be interesting to see how it works out this year. We are anticipating a normal recovery from the summer doldrums in this last portion of this year, but if it doesn't happen, we will further reduce our listings. This company quite obviously, does not want our business, and is doing most everything it can to discourage our kind of sellers. IMHO

Amazon vs. eBay: 2 Charts Say It All

Ebay cannot create success, while treating their customer base with disdain. Ebay sellers are it's customer base, as those sellers pay all of the fees. Let me repeat that.........I said, Ebay sellers pay all of the fees. No company can be successful while treating their paying customers the way eBay treats it's sellers. IMHO

Is eBay's Real Threat Amazon or Classifieds, or Both?

'Ebay's issue is how do they improve on their customer's experience.' Agreed, if you consider both buyer and seller as customers, which in reality is true.


On May 24 08:15 PM bricki wrote:

> I think this misses the point. With Ebay the assessment should be
> "I have met the enemy and he is us".
>
> Ebay's issue is how do they improve on their customer's experience.
> Every year people move off Ebay because fees have gotten too high
> or the terms of the transaction have gotten unacceptable to big sellers.
>
>
> So long as their model continues to require increasing fees to increase
> revenue they have a real problem.

Is eBay's Real Threat Amazon or Classifieds, or Both?

I agree with both Scot and PastTense. PT makes good points on the large non-shippable items like furniture, but for smaller items I think that Scott has it right. What I noticed just today, as I looked through my latest antiques and collectibles purchases to decide where I should be marketing them (eBay or my local antique malls), so many of the items that used to be found on eBay regularly, are no longer there. I used to look and find virtually everything that I would buy at local estate auctions here in the midwest, and it was really astounding how often I would think I had found a truly unique item, and I would still find it on eBay in completed auctions. Just the opposite is true today, and item after item I researched, is no longer being sold on eBay. This leaves me in a quandry as to where to market my goods, and I'm not sure what I will do in the immediate future. Longer term, however, the trend is unmistakeable; good merchandise is not moving on eBay because sellers are not listing it there. I was selling on eBay during the previous recession, and as Scott mentioned, there was no slow-down for eBay sellers then, and we built sales right straight through that recession. Quite the opposite is true today, and while eBay's policies introduced in the last year or so have indeed cost it some good sellers, the sellers who are leaving now in the most recent months, are leaving mostly because they aren't selling anything, or at least, not selling enough. My antique mall sales are now outpacing eBay sales, and while the recession has hurt both, it has hurt ebay sales more. At least, that is how I see it currently.

eBay Offers Something Amazon Cannot

I continue to believe that the eBay can be fixed, and there are some hints that management is actually going to try to get back to something close to the basic strategy that did work in the past. Whether or not current managment can actually do that, is the question, IMHO. Nothing succeeds like success, and that of course is much of what made eBay work in the first place. The strategy is simple, and it does work if a good balance between buyer and seller can be moderated by the company. The problem for current management is going to be, 'How are they going to go back to the old workable business plan, and make it look like it is something new and different?' If they can do that, they can succeed, but if they can't, then it will take a new team to accomplish the transition by going back to the game plan that worked before.

IMHO

Rally Broaches Resistance: What the Charts Say

A good friend always tells me at these inflection points, that to trade successfully, you have to be right twice, once getting out, and again getting back in. In this current market, I have been fooled so many times I can't count them all, and the low-cap value stocks I follow are all now looking up. I could try selling a little now, but even if the market corrects to the down-side for a retracement, there is no assurance that my low-cap value stocks would follow the market downward. All stocks do not bottom at the same time, is something I have learned from previous bear marketsso it is possible my low-cap value stocks have already bottomed. At this point, I am just going to leave my current investments un-touched, even though I am up 42% since March 9. I may be wrong, but it won't be the first or last time.

What Can eBay Do to Close Its Amazon Gap?

The current eBay strategy, has John Donahoe's fingerprints all over it. He has stated that this is the new way, and it has his complete support. If eBay were to change direction back to a focus on auctions, where their strength and growth was obviously found, new management would seem to me to have to be the first step. John Donahoe has burned his bridges with his main customers (power-sellers), and I don't see a way for the company to re-direct, or design, or construct, a new strategy that would include those sellers he has so profoundly disappointed, without replacing Mr. Donahoe. IMHO

Suggestions for eBay 2.0

The business model for a successful on-line auction business is now well-known, and it is just a matter of time until someone successfully makes it work again. Having said that, we all seem to understand that it will not be current management at eBay.

Surely someone, either current on-line competitors (i.e., Bonzangle, Etsy), or big potential on-line competitors (Goggle, etc.), will make the transition into this business.

Ebay should be reaping the rewards of the current ecomonic situation, not steadily trending down the tubes. They had it all, at one point just a few short years ago, and they completely blew it all away.

Suggestions for eBay 2.0

Current management has to go, as they are the larger part of the problem. Without that basic step, nothing worthwhile will change.

Significant changes like the ones Scott has proposed above, could work, but not work with current management.

The auction business could be saved, but it will take quick action now, not later. This is the core business, and current management does not recognize this fact.

A good overall plan, and sellers would buy in if the are treated fairly.

However, I doubt very much it will happen. 1) Current management is too entrenched, 2) Consultants are in charge of decisons now, 3) Where will the impetus come from to make this happen? 4) By the time another few quarters roll around, it will be too late to save the ship; it's sinking as we speak.

Overall I applaud your efforts, Scott, and I wish it could be saved. I just don't think it will happen. Sellers are not partners in this endeavor as they should be, and it is just too far from where we are currently, to get to what you are proposing. Too far to go, and not enough time to get it done.

IMHO

eBay and the CEF

Another good analysis, Scott. Keep it coming.

What is really ironic to me, is that eBay should, and could be, the place to go in this present tough economic situation, for many buyers around the world. Under the old format, and old programs, I think it would be in much better condition, than it is now under this new improved format.

One factor you failed to mention, is that sellers have limited their international listings due to the lack of coverage under the PayPal Seller Protection Plan (SPP) for international sales, except when shipment is to a very limited number of countries. When sellers lose everything (and I mean everything, i.e., the purchase price, the merchandise, and the shipping costs) on a shipments to some countries when paypal refuses to cover the seller on fraudlent purchases, sellers will certainly limit their international sales to the countries where they have some protection from PayPals SPP. This happened to me only once, and I stopped shipping to those countries where these problems are more common.

U.S. E-Commerce Down 3% in Q408, Up 6% for Year

It would be more helpful for me to break out the 4th quarter, from the rest of the 2008 data. So many things happened in 2008, with the financial melt-down, the housing crisis, the stock market decline, gov't bailouts, etc., that looking back to the start of 2008 and including all 12 months fails to show recent trends. And it is the most recent trends that I would be most interested in. Would it be possible to break down this data by quarter?

Amazon vs. eBay: Follow Up Q&A

Re: Sea05, In response, Our merchandise (collectibles and antiques) does not show up much on Amazon, and those that have tried don't do as well there as in B&B venues, at least that is how we see it. We continue to monitor options, but right now a good B&B outlet for us is as good as on-line options. Bonanzle is a possibility, but the numbers just aren't there yet. Perhaps that will change in the future.

The really successful dealers in our product area at the present time (here in the midwest where we are located), are ones with B&B outlets to supplement on-line sales. And if present trends continue, we will do move more into that area to replace lost eBay revenue.

I know that is not what etailers want to hear, but that is the way it looks to us.

Ebay had it all, but the key word 'had' is past tense, and one cannot live in the past.

Amazon vs. eBay: Follow Up Q&A

Scott, good work and nice reporting. (We are eBay power sellers from nearly the beginning, and still hold out hope that the site can be turned around, or saved in some fashion. At the same time, one cannot operate a business on hope, so we have been forced to look at other alternatives.) Looking forward to the upcoming chapters.

Amazon vs. eBay: The Giants of E-Commerce Duke It Out

Ebay had it all, and Amazon was trying to emulate them, instead of the other was around. All eBay had to do was keep doing what it was doing, but instead they paid big bucks to the consultants to fix what wasn't broken. Fixing the problem now will be more difficult, but just getting back to where they were a year and a half ago, would be a good start.