LCACM

Trade Tensions Surfacing Between Emerging Markets of the Global South

Surprisingly the Indian government has done little to stem the dumping of Chinese goods on the Indian market. This is destroying numerous small scale industries in India and is likely to have a negative impact on Indian employment and economic growth.

Is India a Benchmark Bet on the Global Economy?

India probably cannot be a benchmark for the Global Economy as its socio-economic makeup is markedly different from Europe, Africa or Middle-East. In India joint families and extended families are the norm, resulting in a family having several bread winners who pool their resources.. A job loss by one or two family members probably requires belt tightening but is not economically devastating as in the West where a family depends on one or two breadwinners. As a result the loss of consumer confidence due to the financial Meltdown is fairly low in rural India, compared to other economies. Also as the Indian laws do not allow companies to hire and fire to satisfy their whims, the job situation is not so dire. This has had the positive impact of improving consumer confidence and the resulting consumer demand. It is interesting that countries that follow a mixed economic model (India,China) are performing better than countries following either a purely socialistic or purely capitalistic ideology.

A List of Long and Short ETFs

May 21,2009
Shorting IFN may be an error and shows that the author does not have a good handle on the Chindia story. The huge jump by IFN on Monday, May 18th in response to the 2009 Indian election results would have caused huge losses to those following the author's advice relative to IFN. Granted that the problems faced by India are daunting, but the 2009 election results and the subsequent market response show that India is headed in the right direction at least for the near term.

The Chinese Have Joined In, Now What About India?

During a crisis the Chinese government has the advantage that it has the necessary funds to invest in building it's infrastructure. As India has a democratic form of Government, it has used all it's available funds to purchase votes. India always boasts of having a democratic form of Government. This means that the elected representatives have to spend most of their time and energy in getting re-elected, and do not have time to think of development. So economic development in India will always be far less than what it is in China.