williemo

Be Cautious About Investing in Gold

You, my dear, have wisdom. Excellent observation and advice !
Some out there may have short term knowledge.........but we know what happens when misplaced knowledge is ill-timed.....disaster!
Inflation is probably coming, but the title wave of lower loan and property values is much bigger than the liquidity the Fed has let out. You better have stops on your gold or silver holdings, or start selling some now, because by early 2010, you will wish you had.

Bullish Sentiment Continues for Gold and Silver Stocks

I would like to see your opinion of gold and silver at the beg of 2010, when they are headed to the lows of the fall of 2008. Things are great now, but doesn't this remind you of what crude did at it's blow off, only to crater to half the highs, within a very short time period. The cyclical highs of gold and silver are very close now, or possibly later in Nov, but lower values in GDX and SLV are coming, sooner than you might expect. Maybe it will take more bullish sentiment to get us to the ultimate highs, but at these levels, it's just too risky to place bets. I'll be ready to short sooner rather than later.

Are the Markets Drunk on Hope?

looks like time to short BC. up 250% in 8 weeks. Outdoor sports equipmnent company......up only after first good sales month in 3 yrs.
wow. now that's speculation !!!

Poor PMI Report: Good News for Markets

good observation. i tend to agree, but I wouldn't be tied too heavily to your statement of 'hold until interest rates go up' . yes, i believe that can derail the market, as well. but there are many other things to look at besides int rates going up. Overall, though, I like your thinking....just be nimble, and use key resistance levels to go in or out of the market........sentiment is only part of the mystery of up/dwn mkts.

Where Does Silver Go Next?

i caught his comments about silver dropping in the next 2 months. Why does he think that will happen?

What Does the Dollar Bottom Mean for Stocks and Commodities?

excellent analysis.
sort of like a cool spell in the middle of the summer......no one expects it........but the weather forcaster says it's coming. if you're on a trip w/o your jacket, it will be uncomfortable........sort of like the next couple of months for gold and silver. However, I do feel the heat will come back, ie, metals will return as the Obama reign continue to keep money supply strong, to save his political a.........

Gold and Silver: The Only Attractive Investment Option

your last comment, 'don't count on it', relating to 'lower gold/silver prices'. Obviously, you feel all the deflation and deleverging is behind us. I agree most is, but the inability to get a loan or spend $$ by the US consumer is really the key eventually, and payroll reports, etc will show that Deflation is key issue for a time.......your article is about a year early. Hard analysis shows gold needs to go to $700 or below before it can go higher.

Challenge to Life Partners' Auditor: Address Red Flags

is it possible that you work for the federal government and have the opinion that 'what the market bears' is illegal or improper. The life settlements business is arguably a puzzling business, but upon study of it's core industry, one would find that there are statutes in place to protect sellers of their polices. Also, LPHI doesn't have to be a public company, but has chosen to do so. Yes, the way you have presented the material, it appears there are some issues, but anyone could do this about just about any company and find similar results. I personally believe you are jealous of a company that has found a nitch in putting buyers and sellers together, acting as a broker. I'm not saying nothing is suspect, but I wonder how your comments would be affected if you, in fact, visited the company and its officers personally, or interviewed many of the policyholders that have rec'd needed funds over the years, because a company has found a legitimate way to put buyers and sellers together to get funds to someone in need. God bless the accounting firm and LPHI, as I hope they both prove your comments very biased and just plane jealous of a company making a good profit....for everyone involved in the process.

U.S. Dollar Can and Will Drop

If you look at the UUP like any chart, you'll see it is in an upturn, of course until something big takes it down out of the range. Until this happens, there's no way the US Stock market or Gold, can advance much from here. If one is long Gold, they have a long term horizon. Seems a better entry to Gold is when it drops below $800, which could be pretty soon.

Royal Bank of Scotland Comments on Metals and Energy

This might sound great for the end of the year, but like many sectors, they can move strongly one way or another before a longer term trend develops. Per my research, many analysts show GLD and SLV should decline from now thru the summer significantly, before moving up again. You comment that you are expecting some seasonal selling and a surprise pullback may occur, seems to indicate you are expecting midterm weakness in these metals before any longer term up trend. If so, it might be nice to see a future article or comment from you on the best entry point, as now doesn't appear to be one.

Potential High/Low Targets for the Dow

Longer term cycles, per cyclical analysts, call for slight weakness starting month of May, with short term up during June, then steeper weakness starting July into mid Aug. It appears we could go as high as 8500 DOW now and sell off within the 38-50% Fib range to 7700-7500 to first of June, then make run for 9000 during June, to then drop at beg of July as 2nd Q earnings report, leading to possible test of March lows by end of Aug. In gen'l, am in agreement with author JP. I think the safer long trade is if and when we sell off in May to possible 7500 level, then short when reach close to 9000 after end of June. May not be perfect, but it seems probable, by many analysts' expectations.

Why Jim Rogers and Robert Shiller Aren't Buying U.S. Stocks Yet

I am reminded of the famous classic movie, 'Jaws', specifically the ending where the sheriff was holding onto the last dry pole, with the boat all but under water. Just before this scene, both the Police Chief and the Captain were on the sinking boat, but it was stablized for a time........ they conversed as if all was ok.........until, suddenly and without warning, the shark made a final leap to sink the boat and eat it's Captain. This scene should still be vivid in anyone's mind, even after 30 years. Although not an exact analogy, the current 'lul' in which we find our economy reminds me of the 'lul' just before the shark came in for the final, violent 'pull down'. The good news, and the other analogy I like, is that we will somehow end 'above' water and survive, just like the Police Chief.........but he was more defensive than anyone (and creative) , and survived them all. Being defensive and creative at this juncture seems the best strategy, when all the technicals and fundamentals are considered.
Just because your boat is under water 50%, doesn't mean it is rally time. We all know from history that 70% +is highly possible, especially in the credit meltdown we've only partially experienced to date. What makes us so naive that we think it can't happen? Survival and 'captain' preservation seems best until we see CAPE's of below 10, at least. Not bad advice from original author.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

with pennant formation on IYE, shouldn't the next big move be down?

The Battle Between Banks and Bullion

What is anyone's best estimate at the price of Gold, in US $, by the end of this year? Could it be $1200 ? If commodities and energy go thru the roof again, won't it hamper efforts for recovery as everything becomes more expensive, before the patient is healed. In my opinion, the Fed chairman is so scared of 1930's , he's jumped the gun on this aggressive US Bond buy back program. I somewhat like the current effect, but feel it's like taking pepto bismol when you have a stomach virus......it just delays the inevitable. Maybe he's just trying to hold on to his job in a bad economy, who knows? I still would like someones take on Gold prices by the end of 2009.

Failure of Bond Market Highly Positive for Gold and Silver

in the short run, gold and slv should decline. In the mid, to longer term, the metals will increase, as you'vd said..... but, I would be a seller here. If you look at GLD's chart and see the fundamentals of where we are right now, it can easily sell off to the 800's or even 700's, before eventually going higher.