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williemo

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  • Ready, Steady, Gold [View article]
    Great thoughts.
    Believe the upstart in Gold may be the first move from a bottom.
    However, technically, one more move below the previous low in Gold should occur before a good bottom for a bounce. So, I personally show that this recent trend up, is based on 'hope' and that Jackson Hole won't produce the follow through, allowing risk assets to drop in value. Stocks have much further to go down than commodities, in my opinion. So, we look for a bottom for most risk assets in October, right before the GOP hopefully wins, allowing a very nice bounce into year end. However, if the Dems win, watch out below.
    Aug 24, 2012. 12:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • October Kills Another Bear [View article]
    pretty much on target, but Oct isn't over.
    A big change in the weather should come 'once the deal is signed', and market prob wont go up, like many expecting,
    the old addage, buy the rumor, sell the news, will prob prevail.
    market is due a healthy respite, possibly down to 11,300 dow after hitting 12k this week. but month overall, should do well.
    Oct 25, 2011. 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BofA shares soar after Buffett invests $5 billion [View article]
    Most everyone is cheering this Thursday morning because of Warren Buffett’s firm agreeing to invest $5Billion BAC.

    After really analyzing it, however, it communicates weakness and discrimination, at least from one point of view.

    The news is received as positive, mainly because Bank of America is weak and was ‘grasping at straws’ to stay financially afloat.
    All Warren Buffett had to do is believe the bank would stay alive, and that may even be in question.

    $5Billion seems like a lot, but not in relation to the assets of Berkshire Hathaway, not if they can get their capital back anytime.
    Remember, interest rates are at zero, unless you invest for 10+ yrs in a US govt bond, then you might get 2+%.

    Buffett is lending the money with the following stipulations:
    He can get paid back anytime, on demand, with a 5% premium.
    While other banks pay little or no dividend to their shareholders, and BAC pays 0.60% to current shareholders, Buffett's group will get 6%/yr dividend, paid quarterly.
    This deal is private and does not apply to other shareholders, thus current owners of the stock get hosed with 1/10 the size if his dividend.

    In reality, as long as Bank of America stays afloat, Buffett and his investment group have a ‘guaranteed’ payback anytime at usurious rates (from a relative standpoint), while badly needed capital and profits go out the door in the form of 10X the normal BAC dividend 4X/yr, along with the contingent risk that Buffett could ask for his capital back at anytime.

    Now, with all this fully understood, would you invest in Bank of America right now, after it dipped as low as $6.01 Tuesday, after falling 50% in the last 100 days?
    Possibly, for a short term trade and profit taking. But, I’m not sure about longer term.
    Currently, as of Thursday am, the stock has jumped almost 50% from the Tuesday low to as high as $8.80.

    The only truly good news, is for the Buffett group, and possibly a glimmer of hope for the US banking industry, short term. Also, for those BAC shareholders who hadn't sold, but now can possibly unload their shares at a premium to the recent low, or at least have hope of their shares not falling near 0.

    You be the judge.

    At this time, I neither own nor plan to trade BAC in any way.
    Aug 25, 2011. 10:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do 7-Inch Tablets Stand a Chance? [View article]
    I can see both sides.
    we have the 7" and it is just fine.
    When holding in your hand with a note pad, etc, the 7" is more like carrying a small book. The I pad is bigger and more bulky.

    Also, when you can walk into Verizon and get the Samsung 7'tablet for $199 with a 2 yr committment, VS $600 for Ipad, I would believe the masses will try the 7" pad well before the Ipad, especially in the next 18 months when liquidity is taken out of the economy.
    Jobs is smart and always knows an angle, but all that fancy stuff is not what the masses want......only institutional and techies, and thats a minority of the population. Apples prob going up in the spring, but once it hits $400 or so, I think its seen its' best value.
    Apr 4, 2011. 02:04 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Opportunity to Short the VIX [View article]
    regardless of your long term and limited analysis, short term cycles show vix about to spike up, my friend.
    you might get by with shorting it until this week, but I would be on the long side if I were you.......at least for the next couple of weeks.
    Mar 3, 2011. 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dollar Is a Safe Haven? You Bet [View article]
    tony
    study the technicals, not the fundamentals. technicals will help you make $ now, fundamentals are longer term.
    this will guide you better over the next 18 months.
    sure, usa owes a ton, and can't get out of it w/o inflating eventually, but remember the dollar value is 'compared' to other currencies. if most of them are in same shape, even though we may have to inflate, so will many other countries. the usd is on it's way up in the next few months and in 2011. after that, it may head down. we'll see.
    Sep 15, 2010. 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dollar Is a Safe Haven? You Bet [View article]
    uncle, you seem to have same historical perspective as Vuke.
    looking back 30-100 yrs is easy.
    most all currencies are down over that time.
    but we're investing for the next 1-2 yrs, not 2040.
    For now, us dollar is on silient march north, even tho it may seem stupid. read the article again w open eyes, and invest on the current situation, not 40 yrs ago.
    Sep 15, 2010. 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dollar Is a Safe Haven? You Bet [View article]
    vuke, i wanna puke...........at your comments.
    who's investing based on 100 yrs?
    wake up.
    it's easy to bad mouth the dollar, cuz it's popular these days,
    but when you add up pros and cons of all countries in the world, ie, their gov't system, underlying fundamentals, for now, no one beats the old usa. in 3 yrs this could be diff, and I agree w you, the us currency w go down more, but so will most others. but, for now, I'm investing for the next 6-12 months, not the nex 100 yrs.
    Sep 15, 2010. 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dollar Is a Safe Haven? You Bet [View article]
    brazil prob likes euros because they are short sighted, like everyone else. the euro has stablized and that's what they hear, but don't believe they're thinking 'ahead of the curve', as the euro begins to show cracks again, cuz it's just inherantly a weakly-designed currency and cracks will continue. if looking forward, put your bets in us dollar, that is until china or japan kick it in gear in the next 3 yrs.
    Sep 15, 2010. 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dollar Is a Safe Haven? You Bet [View article]
    i like your though pattern.
    its easy for anyone to jump on the world bandwagon and badmouth the us dollar. but when you break it down like you did, it's logic, and lines up with our wave count on a stronger dollar in the next few weeks or months, and into most of 2011. things will get more 'hairy', as the slogan goes, with the world situation, and when it comes down to decision time, I like your argument, cuz it's true! things may be diff in 5 yrs, but right now, you are right, in our opinion.
    Sep 15, 2010. 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Lower on Basel III, Chinese Data Despite Diversification Talk [View article]
    u may be right, but if fibonacci retracement applies, then current retracement from high is about 62% retraced, and could take a pause here, headed back to 70 for a 38% retrace of current down. as anyone knows, ratios involve at least 2 numbers, so if it goes to 70 and gold corrects in price somewhat, this means silver culd have a pretty good drop, even if short term. Trade seems crowded, and even though correction might be quick, silver may be headed for sharp reversal, even more than gold, so ratio can go to around 70. who knows, but when everyone thinks something will go up, it prob won't. Asian stks due for corrction on upward move, and US stks headed down in steeper drop, and metals are pre cursor to this direction, prob mostly to play out in Oct. we'll see.
    Sep 13, 2010. 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monday Morning Forex Quarterback [View article]
    marc: does your analysis show the USD on a general trend higher this year, even though it might be stair-stepped along the way?
    Mar 22, 2010. 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will the Market Continue Beyond January's Highs or Will It Fall? [View article]
    you better go back and study dow theory a little more. it's way more than reaching a 50% level. Also, you may want to study the Fibonacci retracements. These are more reliable in the short run. DOW Theory is a longer term perspective and is ok, but you need to look at other research in the short run. Elliott Wave is the best predictor, in my opinion, of where the market is going in the intermediate to longer term. If you looked at it, you'd see that your 'hope' of a higher market is like throwing cash down a toilet. The USD should go higher and this should derail stocks and metals most of this year, except for a short rally here or there.
    Feb 23, 2010. 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update on the S&P 500 / Dollar Relationship [View article]
    you might do a little research in elliott wave, before you think the USD will be going lower this year. It's the best predictor of where it's going, and it doesn't appear to be going down.
    Feb 23, 2010. 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Major Market Moves in Process? [View article]
    if you're talking about why you can't understand why the USD is moving up since Dec, you must be very uninformed or very inexperienced. The USD is going toward 90 because everybody else is weaker than we are. It might come down again, but not in the next 45 days. It's going north, so get ready for stocks and commodities to head south. Do your research and wake up.
    Feb 17, 2010. 03:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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