williemo

Are the Markets Drunk on Hope?

looks like time to short BC. up 250% in 8 weeks. Outdoor sports equipmnent company......up only after first good sales month in 3 yrs.
wow. now that's speculation !!!

Poor PMI Report: Good News for Markets

good observation. i tend to agree, but I wouldn't be tied too heavily to your statement of 'hold until interest rates go up' . yes, i believe that can derail the market, as well. but there are many other things to look at besides int rates going up. Overall, though, I like your thinking....just be nimble, and use key resistance levels to go in or out of the market........sentiment is only part of the mystery of up/dwn mkts.

Potential High/Low Targets for the Dow

Longer term cycles, per cyclical analysts, call for slight weakness starting month of May, with short term up during June, then steeper weakness starting July into mid Aug. It appears we could go as high as 8500 DOW now and sell off within the 38-50% Fib range to 7700-7500 to first of June, then make run for 9000 during June, to then drop at beg of July as 2nd Q earnings report, leading to possible test of March lows by end of Aug. In gen'l, am in agreement with author JP. I think the safer long trade is if and when we sell off in May to possible 7500 level, then short when reach close to 9000 after end of June. May not be perfect, but it seems probable, by many analysts' expectations.

Why Jim Rogers and Robert Shiller Aren't Buying U.S. Stocks Yet

I am reminded of the famous classic movie, 'Jaws', specifically the ending where the sheriff was holding onto the last dry pole, with the boat all but under water. Just before this scene, both the Police Chief and the Captain were on the sinking boat, but it was stablized for a time........ they conversed as if all was ok.........until, suddenly and without warning, the shark made a final leap to sink the boat and eat it's Captain. This scene should still be vivid in anyone's mind, even after 30 years. Although not an exact analogy, the current 'lul' in which we find our economy reminds me of the 'lul' just before the shark came in for the final, violent 'pull down'. The good news, and the other analogy I like, is that we will somehow end 'above' water and survive, just like the Police Chief.........but he was more defensive than anyone (and creative) , and survived them all. Being defensive and creative at this juncture seems the best strategy, when all the technicals and fundamentals are considered.
Just because your boat is under water 50%, doesn't mean it is rally time. We all know from history that 70% +is highly possible, especially in the credit meltdown we've only partially experienced to date. What makes us so naive that we think it can't happen? Survival and 'captain' preservation seems best until we see CAPE's of below 10, at least. Not bad advice from original author.

Market Backdrop: 1990 vs. Today

the main diff is this credit crunch is way more severe......and we didn't go bomb the hell out of the the Iraqi's this month.......ie, 'The Gulf War', which brought us out of the dull-drums. Now is diff......banks can't get capital like they could then. We're going down further, just get ready.