williemo

Bullish Sentiment Continues for Gold and Silver Stocks

I would like to see your opinion of gold and silver at the beg of 2010, when they are headed to the lows of the fall of 2008. Things are great now, but doesn't this remind you of what crude did at it's blow off, only to crater to half the highs, within a very short time period. The cyclical highs of gold and silver are very close now, or possibly later in Nov, but lower values in GDX and SLV are coming, sooner than you might expect. Maybe it will take more bullish sentiment to get us to the ultimate highs, but at these levels, it's just too risky to place bets. I'll be ready to short sooner rather than later.

Despite Economic Headwinds, Gold Will Outperform

I agree, in gen'l about gold, however, don't trends and momentum have to be considered,,,,,,as well as the historic relationship between the commodities of gold and oil? If so, either oil better go up 50- 100% in the next 3 months, or gold will need to come down to earth a little......maybe some of both. With the historic mean in the two commodities' prices over time being about 9 (gold to oil), the ratio is at an extreme right now at about 20. Regardless of all the reasons why gold will be the currency and metal of choice in the years ahead, it may not be the right time just now. We have a tsunami of deflation hitting us that is larger than any current demand for metals. We have actually made good $ the first part of the year shorting gold stocks, and feel we've only touched the surface. If asset rotation eventually rolls from oil stocks completely, leaving it at $40/bbl or below, then possibly the longer term relationship of the two commodities might be more apparent and it might just start raining gold, all the way to $650 or so. Who knows? It's worth a thought.

Contrarian Trading Tips: Gold, the Dollar, Energy and Financials

Very nice article. caveats on both sides of the argument. no one can catch the bottom perfectly, so recognizing the beginning of opportunity is better than having missed it, even if you're somewhat early. Most people reading this are short term minded, and want to make a Buck weekly. True investing is much longer than this. Great article!