williemo

Be Cautious About Investing in Gold

You, my dear, have wisdom. Excellent observation and advice !
Some out there may have short term knowledge.........but we know what happens when misplaced knowledge is ill-timed.....disaster!
Inflation is probably coming, but the title wave of lower loan and property values is much bigger than the liquidity the Fed has let out. You better have stops on your gold or silver holdings, or start selling some now, because by early 2010, you will wish you had.

Are the Markets Drunk on Hope?

looks like time to short BC. up 250% in 8 weeks. Outdoor sports equipmnent company......up only after first good sales month in 3 yrs.
wow. now that's speculation !!!

What Does the Dollar Bottom Mean for Stocks and Commodities?

excellent analysis.
sort of like a cool spell in the middle of the summer......no one expects it........but the weather forcaster says it's coming. if you're on a trip w/o your jacket, it will be uncomfortable........sort of like the next couple of months for gold and silver. However, I do feel the heat will come back, ie, metals will return as the Obama reign continue to keep money supply strong, to save his political a.........

Gold and Silver: The Only Attractive Investment Option

your last comment, 'don't count on it', relating to 'lower gold/silver prices'. Obviously, you feel all the deflation and deleverging is behind us. I agree most is, but the inability to get a loan or spend $$ by the US consumer is really the key eventually, and payroll reports, etc will show that Deflation is key issue for a time.......your article is about a year early. Hard analysis shows gold needs to go to $700 or below before it can go higher.

Royal Bank of Scotland Comments on Metals and Energy

This might sound great for the end of the year, but like many sectors, they can move strongly one way or another before a longer term trend develops. Per my research, many analysts show GLD and SLV should decline from now thru the summer significantly, before moving up again. You comment that you are expecting some seasonal selling and a surprise pullback may occur, seems to indicate you are expecting midterm weakness in these metals before any longer term up trend. If so, it might be nice to see a future article or comment from you on the best entry point, as now doesn't appear to be one.

Why Jim Rogers and Robert Shiller Aren't Buying U.S. Stocks Yet

I am reminded of the famous classic movie, 'Jaws', specifically the ending where the sheriff was holding onto the last dry pole, with the boat all but under water. Just before this scene, both the Police Chief and the Captain were on the sinking boat, but it was stablized for a time........ they conversed as if all was ok.........until, suddenly and without warning, the shark made a final leap to sink the boat and eat it's Captain. This scene should still be vivid in anyone's mind, even after 30 years. Although not an exact analogy, the current 'lul' in which we find our economy reminds me of the 'lul' just before the shark came in for the final, violent 'pull down'. The good news, and the other analogy I like, is that we will somehow end 'above' water and survive, just like the Police Chief.........but he was more defensive than anyone (and creative) , and survived them all. Being defensive and creative at this juncture seems the best strategy, when all the technicals and fundamentals are considered.
Just because your boat is under water 50%, doesn't mean it is rally time. We all know from history that 70% +is highly possible, especially in the credit meltdown we've only partially experienced to date. What makes us so naive that we think it can't happen? Survival and 'captain' preservation seems best until we see CAPE's of below 10, at least. Not bad advice from original author.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

with pennant formation on IYE, shouldn't the next big move be down?

The Battle Between Banks and Bullion

What is anyone's best estimate at the price of Gold, in US $, by the end of this year? Could it be $1200 ? If commodities and energy go thru the roof again, won't it hamper efforts for recovery as everything becomes more expensive, before the patient is healed. In my opinion, the Fed chairman is so scared of 1930's , he's jumped the gun on this aggressive US Bond buy back program. I somewhat like the current effect, but feel it's like taking pepto bismol when you have a stomach virus......it just delays the inevitable. Maybe he's just trying to hold on to his job in a bad economy, who knows? I still would like someones take on Gold prices by the end of 2009.

Failure of Bond Market Highly Positive for Gold and Silver

in the short run, gold and slv should decline. In the mid, to longer term, the metals will increase, as you'vd said..... but, I would be a seller here. If you look at GLD's chart and see the fundamentals of where we are right now, it can easily sell off to the 800's or even 700's, before eventually going higher.

How the U.S. Government Is Footing the Stimulus Bill

andrew c had it right on.
the us bond yield is at 0 not because no one wants it, but because everyone wants it. If no one wanted it, the yield would be 10%+. I lost confidence in this author when he made this simple, fundamental error........alien or no alien.

Sentimental Warning for Gold

I agree with your premise., Also, looking at the historical relationship of gold price to oil helps perspective at this juncture. With the historic mean in the two commodities' prices over time being about 9 (gold to oil), the ratio is at an extreme right now at about 20. If so, either oil better go up 50%-100% ($60 - $80) in the next 3 months, or gold will need to come down to earth a little......maybe some of both. Regardless of all the reasons why gold will be the currency and metal of choice in the years ahead, it may not be the right time just now. We have a tsunami of deflation hitting us that is larger than any current demand for the future hard currency of choice. If the longer term relationship of the two commodities came into line, ie, 10:1, gold may just come all the way down to $650 or so.

Another historical perspecive that helped me was another fine author had found what gold prices did in the great depression. They fell dramatically for 2 yrs, and then ramped up geometrically for the next 2 yrs. or so. History is no guarantee, but it can be a guide. I'm in no rush to buy gold at $800 right now, and am more open to shorting the gold stocks that have doubled in the past 2 months. Good work !!

Despite Economic Headwinds, Gold Will Outperform

I agree, in gen'l about gold, however, don't trends and momentum have to be considered,,,,,,as well as the historic relationship between the commodities of gold and oil? If so, either oil better go up 50- 100% in the next 3 months, or gold will need to come down to earth a little......maybe some of both. With the historic mean in the two commodities' prices over time being about 9 (gold to oil), the ratio is at an extreme right now at about 20. Regardless of all the reasons why gold will be the currency and metal of choice in the years ahead, it may not be the right time just now. We have a tsunami of deflation hitting us that is larger than any current demand for metals. We have actually made good $ the first part of the year shorting gold stocks, and feel we've only touched the surface. If asset rotation eventually rolls from oil stocks completely, leaving it at $40/bbl or below, then possibly the longer term relationship of the two commodities might be more apparent and it might just start raining gold, all the way to $650 or so. Who knows? It's worth a thought.