williemo

Why Jim Rogers and Robert Shiller Aren't Buying U.S. Stocks Yet

I am reminded of the famous classic movie, 'Jaws', specifically the ending where the sheriff was holding onto the last dry pole, with the boat all but under water. Just before this scene, both the Police Chief and the Captain were on the sinking boat, but it was stablized for a time........ they conversed as if all was ok.........until, suddenly and without warning, the shark made a final leap to sink the boat and eat it's Captain. This scene should still be vivid in anyone's mind, even after 30 years. Although not an exact analogy, the current 'lul' in which we find our economy reminds me of the 'lul' just before the shark came in for the final, violent 'pull down'. The good news, and the other analogy I like, is that we will somehow end 'above' water and survive, just like the Police Chief.........but he was more defensive than anyone (and creative) , and survived them all. Being defensive and creative at this juncture seems the best strategy, when all the technicals and fundamentals are considered.
Just because your boat is under water 50%, doesn't mean it is rally time. We all know from history that 70% +is highly possible, especially in the credit meltdown we've only partially experienced to date. What makes us so naive that we think it can't happen? Survival and 'captain' preservation seems best until we see CAPE's of below 10, at least. Not bad advice from original author.