Voice of Reason

86 Comments

    • The White Elephant That Could Destroy Your Portfolio, Part I [view article]
      I'll bite, why did you draw a line at 1694 and not 1752 or 1812 or some other point? May 24 11:32 PM
    • The White Elephant That Could Destroy Your Portfolio, Part I [view article]
      I'm not a fan of Uncle Ben Bernanke or the Federal Reserve, but just once I'd like to see any of the posters flapping their gums be put in charge for a yeat... just to see how badly they can screw things up.

      Talk is cheap.       May 23 10:56 PM
    • Seeking E*Trade's 'Magic Moment' [view article]
      I have a big bowl of popcorn and I am enjoying the multiple hissy fits. No wonder you guys can't make any money... you're too busy calling each other names. LOL! May 23 10:49 PM
    • Foreclosures Prove Loan Modification Isn't Working [view article]
      Another chicken little the sky in falling fairytale. The author is also fast and lose with his "facts" Saying "recession deepens" when we're not even officially in a recession at all yet is proof this guy is just another fear monger. I wonder what his motative is. Actaully I can make an educated guess. May 15 11:33 PM
    • E*Trade's Annual Shareholder Meeting Should Pressure the Shorts [view article]
      E-Trade has been an attractive buy out prospect for years. All the other players have been lusting after it. The only thing that stopped them was they thought they could woo customers away in groves, hasn't happened. Most E-Trade customers tend to be loyal. Now that the banking disaster is starting to resolve, seems like clear sailing ahead from my viewpoint.

      I suspect E-Trade will be North of $10 by this time next year if not sooner. I'm not selling, already made a nice profit, don't even have a protective stop at this point.       May 14 11:22 PM
    • The Fed Cuts One Last Time [view article]
      How much money you can make isn't based on spelling. Neither is being truthful about the gray beards on the FRB who have trouble finding their rear ends with both hands behind their backs. You may care to write that down or at least unbunch your shorts, you seem pretty up-tight billddrummer. Get caught short again? May 01 05:32 PM
    • Sell in May and Go Away? [view article]
      It being 5/1 I guess some of the boys didn't get the memo they were suppose to sell considering the market is up strong today. <snicker>

      If only I would have bought more Master Card a few days ago. ;-)

      A couple months ago the "experts" were suggesting a lot of people would sell a big portion of their MC since it had gone so high so fast and switch to Visa's IPO when it came out. It has been on fire the last couple days. Other "experts" were saying wait for Vista to come down, don't buy it on right after the IPO. The experts were WRONG as usual. Just wondering, what makes these jokers experts?       May 01 05:20 PM
    • Keep On Watching for Signs of a Market Bottom [view article]
      You shouldn't be looking for a "bottom" look for value. There are all kinds of really good stocks that have been beaten down that will do well over the next 12-18 months. Apr 30 10:54 PM
    • Sell in May and Go Away? [view article]
      People were saying the same thing in late 1982... just before the start of the greatest bull market ever. I didn't listen. I invested $3K and now 25 years later that's grown to over well lets just say $XXXXXX.

      So where will you put your money the next three years, under your mattress, in a tin can planted in in he backyard or get a CD paying 1.8%? There's ALWAYS a bull market somewhere.       Apr 30 10:51 PM
    • Fed Cuts Rates, Signals Pause; Dollar Down [view article]
      The Fed actions are like some guy trying to do brain delicate brain surgery through a glove box.

      chemistry.wlu.edu/Digi...

      I would love to be a fly on the wall to see the goings on behind close doors. Actually I don't have to imagine, I've attended all manner of meetings in my career and just about every one of them was useless.

      One of the problems is just about every indicator they look at is trailing or what has already happened. That's like looking out your window seeing cars floating by and then concluding, oh it must have rained pretty hard.

      The Fed has a bad track record of doing too little too late. Greenspan though he'll stand on a stack of bible and pretend it wasn't his fault pushed rates too low. Uncle Ben waiting to long to do anything, then seemed to act in panic.

      My biggest problem with the Fed isn't so much what they do, rather their curious habit of deliberately speaking in a odd language of their own creation in some feeble effort to try to impress us that they know what they're doing. Nothing could be further from the truth.

      Another problem is while the Fed shouldn't get involved with politics at the same time they aren't accountable to anybody either. Every Fed Chairman has has a ego bigger than Detroit which causes them to suffer the illusion they are infallable. Greenspan is the classic example. Worse, the idiots on Wall Street fell over his other to see who could be first to kiss his wrinkled butt. Disgusting!       Apr 30 07:52 PM
    • Sell in May and Go Away? [view article]
      Heck, any day now some "analyst" will make a stock market forcast based on sun spot activity over the past 50 years. Maybe someone else will preach Elliott Wave Theory. Oh, oh, what about one of those black box software packages all over the financial channels, that are virtually guaranteed to make you rich?

      Two words: SNAKE OIL. Bah humbug on all "theories", chart reading secrets, so-called experts and all the other crap heard here.

      You want to get rich? Do your homework.

      Apr 30 05:34 PM
    • The Fed Cuts One Last Time [view article]
      May I ask where you for that matter any of the gloom and doom "columnists" that have some need to share their view with us mere peons got your degree in tea leaf reading? I hope from a acredited school and not some diploma mill with a web page.

      The FRB said what they said. While still border line double speak pig latin perfected by Greenspan what they will do next time now two months off in the future is simply too distant to forcast. Period.

      While I agree the days of agressive cutting are past, suggesting they for sure won't cut another quarter or half point over the next couple meetings is AS ALWAYS uncertain and for sure will be influenced by events THAT HAVE NOT HAPPENED YET. Keep that in mind folks. Actually I'm hoping the get down to 1%, then using my quarter million dollar credit line would be sweet.

      Apr 30 05:18 PM
    • The Worst Is Over ... Again ... And Again ... [view article]
      I'm blaming Baji for causing me to spill my beverage all over my keyboard reading his "caculations"... logic. As far as the article itself baseball analogies trying to judge what inning we're in is equally dim-witted. Maybe these guys never heard of a 9th inning ralley where the home team was six runs behind with two outs but won the game in spite of it at the last minute. Sorry, couldn't resist.

      Market forecasters are about as useful as used toilet paper and no more accurate than rolling the dice repeatedly.

      Oh look... companies keep reporting better than expected earnnings, according to the offical formula we haven't even had a single quarter of negative growth let alone the called for two in a row.

      Now Baji, I don't know what you're smoking but it must be high quality something. You claim 2 million subprime loans outstanding at an average of 300,000 / loan yields a total of 600 billion dollars at risk. I don't know where you got your figures or if that's the total outstanding subprime or just was is expected to go sour. If the former you didn't say so. I would hope you're not that gloomy if you think everyone will stop paying their mortgage which obviously would be crazy to think.

      Memo to Seeking Alpha, maybe you should consider requiring drug testing before letting anyboy spew their poison with the usual undocumented garbage. I mean I'm a season old crusty investor that pays no attention to yahoos like seen here but somebody new to investing may take the short sellers seriously.
      Apr 30 05:02 PM
    • E*Trade: Hindsight with Binoculars [view article]
      You can't take extremes either. You seem confused with analytical math. You're mixing apples and oranges and arriving at some really dumb conclusions. Look up bell curve for starters. I doubt E-Trade or any brokerage house will tell you specifics about their clients so at best it is a wild guess what the average account balance is and even a wilder guess who is or isn't an active trader or their tolerance for commissions.

      I'm still amazed, though I shouldn't be over what can best be described as misinformation spouted in forums like this daily.       Apr 30 10:45 AM
    • Why the E*Trade Shorts Have It Wrong [view article]
      Personally I'm just putting my E-Trade position on the back burner and not worrying about it till things shake out more. It only represents less than 2% of my total stock positions so I'm willing to let it ride along with my Thornburg holdings along with a couple other current bow wow stocks that have the potential to double or more. Like with poker, sometimes it's time to double, other times fold, other times just do nothing but wait and sit things out. So for now I put these chips in my pocket and walked off to another table to see what other trouble I can get into. But I ain't cashing in my E-Trade or Thornburg chips. Not yet, no way. I'm patient. Apr 29 03:39 PM
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