Voice of Reason

Jim Cramer's 10 Predictions for 2008

How many successful hedge funds any of you losers run?

How many of you have your own tv show on CNBC?

That's what I thought.

Pain in the Heartland: National City Bank

While this is a well written and balanced piece it seems like just another one too many watch out, watch out the sky is falling critque of the banking sector. I find more positive outlooks on transcripts of suicide prevention lines and that from the people calling in saying they are going to end it all.

It seems some think things by Labor Day will see bread lines and soup kitchens of the 1930's return, unemployment up to 40%, and 90% of the nation's banks boared up and the DOW hoving near 5000.

All the gloom and doom seems more like bears trying to shake out small investors so they can pounce.

Was Last Week the Bottom?

I have a penchant for making money. Bottom? I don't care if we're at or close to a "bottom", risk brings reward. No pain, no gain. If you wait 1,000 points then say oh, we're at a bottom you already lost a big chunk of the move. If you're wrong, you're wrong. Ever here of stop loss orders, trailing stops or Puts?

Since I started posting here a few weeks ago I see mostly chicken little types screaming the sky is fallingm the sky is falling. Check history, that's the biggest sign of all we're at or close to the magical bottom. Started with 3,000 in 1983. Now approaching seven figures. You don't get there without assuming some risk. If you want no risk, I bet your local bank will give you a nice safe 1.2% CD.

Bank Stocks: April Fools' or Finally Bottoming?

I bet the previous three posters keep their money under their mattress for "safe" keeping.

National City Corporation Shopping for a Buyer

As so often happens NCC has been beaten down by the street far below it's true value. This is (was) the country's 9th largest bank with roughly 140 billion in assets. Oh wait a minutue, that subprime mortgage "problem" we keep hearing about.

Well it is really as bad as the fearmongers want Joe Average to believe?

The FACT is it seems to be the chicken little crowd getting their feathers all ruffled up over much of nothing again. NCC reports it big "bad" subprime mortgage holdings that are not performing at 4.4%. Well that mean 95% is STILL above water! Also factor in that banks including NCC have been stupidity and foolishly writing down book value of this paper probably far in excess of real value.

Get it? Sure the subprime mess isn't good, and NCC was damn stupid to get into subprime in the first place, but no way this is that bad a problem either. Better, with NCC one of the largest holders of the new Visa IPO it has/will rake in about 500 million from that which is a much needed shot in the arm.

Over the last week to 10 days the morons... oops I mean those next to useless moronic analysis crowd that can't find their rear ends with both hands behind their back have been upgrading NCC from underperform and hold to buy. That plus merger talk and much if not all the bad news already discounted and factored into the stock price and book value way higher than the current stock price, I'm holding. I'm long several so-called distressed bank stocks.

Disclosurer:

I got into NCC via backdoor being a very long term holder of MAFB which NCC bought last summer. Why didn't I sell? Oh, maybe because I have a cost basis of a little over a dollar. So, still sitting pretty all things considered.

Big Banks: Too Big To Fail, Too Big To Bail

Tie D should have stopped while he was ahead. He starting out saying "The FRB are idiots" No kidding. Uncle Ben and company are ALWAYS chasing the curve and accordingly behind it doing what they could have and should have done too little, too late.

Of course much of today's problems you can put squarely on the lap of my all time favorite FRB dummy, none other than goofy Greenspan, aka Mr. Mumbles who as yet can't utter a single sentence in public that makes any sense at all, yet you have presidents, Congress and of course the Bozos on Wall Street kissing the ground that silly old fart walks on. Go figure.

I'm a successful investor. Very. I've been doing it more years than Cramer (yes it is my full time "job" now and I listen to only ONE person for financial advise. MYSELF. Period. Others should try that. They would be a lot richer. Really.

So as long as I'm tooting my own horn, I'll share what I learned several decades ago thereby violating my own rule asking you to do what I have done. Investing, smartly boils down to being a GAME. The biggest game on the planet, anyone can play, few know the rules as simple as they are.

Rule #1 Markets go up on GREED. You can profit on that.

Rule #2 Markets go down on FEAR. You can profit on that too!

Rule #3 Don't fight the tape.

Rule #4 Have a plan and stick to it except when you need to break it which you will over and over. <wink> Read again till in sinks in.

Rule #5 Don't try to pick tops or bottoms, but DO pay attention.

Rule #6 If most people are buying you should probably be selling.

Rule #7 If most people are selling you should probably be buying.

Rule #8 There is no such thing as a "sure thing".

Rule #9 Yes, stocks can fall to zero value, thankfully not below.

Rule #10 Your best teacher is experience. Learn from your mistakes.