adamnb

Battery Investing for Beginners

Good analysis. I'm interested in the whole area of battery recycling (reprocessing) and would appreciate any significant references to information that you may be willing to share.


On Sep 27 06:15 PM Douglas Korthof wrote:

> Lithium and nanotechnology *sounds* good; but it translates in my
> mind to the world "hogwash".
>
> Lithium batteries have a bright EV future, perhaps, but they are
> about 4 to 10 times as expensive as NiMH and over 20 times as expensive
> as lead. Concentrating all EV efforts on Lithium, like concentrating
> all efforts on fuel cells, simply removes the EV program from a mass-market
> to a niche-demonstration program, "no threat" to the current oil-auto
> companies, and no chance for large-scale production of batteries
> or for the kind of growth that some seem to be expecting..
>
> You are never going to build a mass-market for EVs or plug-in cars
> using virgin Lithium, it's always going to be a niche or demonstration
> market, maybe 500 or, gasp, even 5000, or, gurgle, 50,000 cars.
> The WORST thing is that there are already good batteries that will
> do the job; but no one is even looking at them.
>
> I have no doubt that a battery technology COULD be developed, if
> there were anyone who wanted to do so in the existing oil-auto companies!
>
>
> But so far, there is no interest in developing a battery recycling
> program, for example, needed for lowering costs. After the (curently
> 500) Tesla need new batteries, say after 60K miles, what's to be
> done with the old batteries? No one outside of, maybe, Tesla has
> a plan, and if they do, it's secret.
>
> If there's to be a fleet of EVs, really, then it must be understood
> to form an "urban mine" of spent batteries for reuse in making new
> batteries, using all the same materials and ever-improved methods.
>
>
> Like the Internal Combustion car business has been for the last 100
> years.
>
> EVs should be looked at as a source of "reforming" those batteries
> when they sunset; every metal is an artifact, except gold, it takes
> mining and refining. The re-use of old batteries, which have all
> the alloys and components needed, would be the way industry were
> headed, IF they were serious about a mass market EV; but of course,
> they are not serious.
>
> The steel industry dramatically lowered costs when they used scrap
> steel as the basis for processing, instead of virgin iron ore! Put
> a lot of legacy companies out of business, with their legacy bessemer
> furnaces!!
>
> Imagine, after 200K miles, when the NiMH batteries finally give up
> the ghost, they are brought to a reforming facility, all the rare
> earth metals, Ni, Ti, V, etc., fractionated and used directly to
> "refresh" the battery to new, using ever-more-successful techniques
> to prolong battery life, more robust batteries after each generation.
>
>
> Or, let's say, when the good lead PSB batteries finally fry, after
> 50K miles, the high-quality lead is reformed into new batteries.
> Or, when Tesla's Lithium batteries are finished, they are brought
> to a reforming facility to make new Lithium batteries, using the
> same materials in the old batteries. Currently, this is much more
> expensive with old batteries than with new Lithium ore from brines,
> dooming the idea of economical production.
>
> BTW, replacement and servicing of batteries ("logistical considerations")
> is something that NO one has looked at; replacing one battery on
> the EV1, RangerEV, Rav4-EV, etc., requires an expensive 4- to 8-hour
> process of "dropping the pack" that can only be done at the dealer
> and only with a $100K lift. Any competent M.E. would lose his lunch
> over that one!
>
> Practical considerations and lowering life-cycle cost; that's the
> way to make a battery EV industry.
>
> But it's not being done, nor looked at, by those Auto Alliance companies
> supposedly "racing" to "develop" EVs. Lutz, for example, pretends
> to think that GM can just "order" the batteries, and they will appear;
> and need have no concern for life-cycle cost.
>
> Obviously, any expectations of a burgeoning, ballooning market for
> high-quality batteries would require such infrastructure as logistical
> support and planning as well as sunset or scrap value; the lack of
> the latter seems to invalidate the former.

How PHEVs and EVs Will Sabotage America's Drive for Energy Independence

Eestor may even have what it says it has; it still will likely take many years to come to production.


On Aug 27 08:50 AM broschultz wrote:

> Wait a month or two and let's see what Eestor does. Everything you
> need to know about Zenn Motors:
> soundclick.com/share?s...

Obama Announces List of Grant Recipients, Recognizing Significance of Hybrid Markets

Dear John:

Don't you think it would be a good time to start and electric storage etf (they seem to have almost every other kind). I bet that there's plenty of funding out there for it.

Why Advanced Lead-Acid Batteries Will Dominate HEV Markets

By the way, John, since you are part of a growing constituency that believes diesel hybrids are the next advanced state, why hasn't it happened yet, since these are both proven technologies. It can't be any more difficult to put electric engines and brake regeneration in diesels than in gasoline vehicles. So what's holding it up?


On Jun 01 10:17 AM John Petersen wrote:

> tireman63, you know far more about automotive technology than I do,
> but until somebody figures a way to make really cheap batteries that
> can form the basis for a cost-effective EV fleet, I suspect there
> will be plenty of work for automotive service professionals.
>
> RoadRunner, you're expectations about the future of batteries are
> not reasonable and they won't be until battery prices collapse (which
> is no good for stockholders of battery companies) or gas prices are
> a good way north of $5 to $6 per gallon. It's also unreasonable to
> assume that an EV will ever mimic the performance of an ICE without
> technical advances that nobody has even dreamed of as of today. The
> really sad news is that we are going to have to lower our expectations,
> reduce our wasteful behavior and recognize that some pigs are not
> more equal than others.
>
> Don Harmon, why is it that you can call LiFePO4 immature when I'm
> skeptical about the potential for future economies of scale but it's
> offensive if Jack calls the technology immature?
>
> Speculawyer, I did put the lead-acid results in the table. In fact
> the table shows exactly how much weight and how much volume you can
> save by using li-ion batteries instead of lead-acid for each category
> of HEV. For anything less than a PHEV-10, the weight and volume savings
> are insignificant. Once you add a plug, the weight and volume savings
> are substantial.
>
> Advil, you'll really be singing my song when you start talking about
> a full-hybrid with a diesel engine.
>
> rbtbob, NiMH has done a fabulous job in the Toyota and Honda HEV's
> but the plants that make the batteries are already running at capacity.
> Moreover, Jack Lifton has written several articles on critical resource
> constraints (lanthanum) that limit the potential for expansion of
> NiMH production. Even if there were no resource constraints, the
> existing NiMH plants cannot make batteries for millions of cars per
> year and they can't build new plants by the EUs 2012 deadline. So
> the only technology that exists and has adequate manufacturing capacity
> wins! That technology is advanced lead acid.

The Obama Fast Track for Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs)

Great article. I think it's time that someone created a battery electronic trading fund (etf).


On May 24 01:30 PM John Petersen wrote:

> Issac, you'll never hear me suggest that oil prices are going any
> direction but up. Nevertheless, there is always a point in economics
> where you start to see diminishing marginal returns. Given the four
> readily identifiable data points we have, the diminishing marginal
> returns for more batteries seem to kick in as soon as you get past
> a full hybrid. I still think we get to a future where the bulk of
> personal transportation is battery powered, but for that time to
> arrive the buying public needs to think in terms of vehicles that
> weigh 400 or 500 pounds instead of 3,000 pounds. Moving a person
> is pretty cost-effective. Moving a person and 10 times as much hardware
> isn't.
>
> Freya, my portfolio is composed like it is because of my unique personal
> history. I would never advise anybody to follow my lead or build
> a portfolio with such a narrow focus. I love this sector because
> I think that all survivors will do very well. There are two companies
> in the group of 15 that I track that I would avoid. All of the rest
> have significant merits and variable levels of risk. Were I coming
> into the sector as a new investor, I would look for diversity and
> balance.

Axion Power: Time Is Right for Gas Guzzlers to Dual Mode EV Conversions

I'd also like to know more about these conversion kits. Also, I have not seen any info on ev being effective on heavy long distance trucking (18 wheelers). Anyone have any promising leads?


On Apr 20 07:17 AM renim wrote:

> Hi
> I'm not a geologist, but i was a mining engineer. The way I see
> lithium ore is that its not rare, just not enough valuable enough
> to mine when cheap brines are available. I'ld place it comparably
> close to lead ore in value...but historically not valued or explored
> for.
> LiFePO4 batteries have a low lithium content, low enough that BYD
> doesn't even call them lithium batteries but ferrous phosphate batteries.
>
> PbC battery has large potential, for mild hybrid use (honda/toyota)
> i see it as compelling, (see article on 'ultrabattery' and honda
> hybrid.
>
> i'ld like to know about about these dual mode kits and thier availability
> for pickup truck.
>
> i read somewhere that BYD had demonstrated that their electrolyte
> for EV batteries was available in an edible formulation!

Axion Power: Time Is Right for Gas Guzzlers to Dual Mode EV Conversions

Hi M:

Could you provide names (or links) to the best conversion companies. I'd appreciate it greatly.


On Apr 19 12:27 PM marketquant wrote:

> > "rapid implementation of Axion's gas-guzzler to dual-mode EV conversion
> initiative"
>
> At a recent meeting of the Calif Air Resources Board, conversion
> companies were reminded that modifications to existing vehicles (which
> affect the behavior of emissions systems) violates California State
> laws covering "tampering" of vehicle emissions systems (due to the
> potential to cause more "cold starts"). A123 has the only state
> sanctioned exemption to this law (for 500 vehicles).
>
> My guess is that vehicle manufacturers have enough lawyers to prevent
> widespread conversion of old vehicles using environmental F.U.D.
> tactics and other regulatory/legal terror.
>
> CARB doesn't even have a definitive plan for testing the emissions
> of *new* vehicles that can run sometimes fully in EV mode, and may
> potentially have multiple "cold starts".

Rising Tides in Alternative Energy Storage

Very thoughtful and interesting article with excellent discussion. I learned a lot. thanks all.