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  • Royal Dutch Shell - I Have Serious Doubts About The British Gas Deal [View article]
    Shell's oil price assumptions on the deal have been widely
    reported in the UK media.

    Shell have wanted BG for 20 years.

    Those cost savings mentioned look very conservative to me.
    Apr 11, 2015. 01:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BP's Dudley says company must slim down to match rivals on costs [View news story]
    Bought the LSE listed BP today, this looks highly attractive on a 5 year
    plus view, just imv only, can not hope to call the low however risk/reward is now
    beginning to look reasonable.

    Also bought some RDSB.
    Dec 12, 2014. 01:31 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The All-Clear Is Not Quite Here [View article]
    Great article Kevin, many thanks.

    Lots of UK listed examples reporting slowing EM and Eurozone growth,
    ULVR, BATS, RB. RR - just a few recent examples.
    Oct 23, 2014. 07:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Can Earnings Season Reverse The Stock Market Decline? [View article]
    Jeff, always interesting to read your detailed articles.

    However on EU macro data I disagree, the data over the last
    two weeks has been weaker than forecast and the ECB has
    disappointed, although expectations were unrealistic.

    The slowdown in the Eurozone has accelerated, that is what has changed.

    On the flip side a weaker Euro should ultimately provide some help.
    Oct 12, 2014. 09:10 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed May Help Open Crack In Correction Door [View article]
    jj, the UK has rebounded largely as a result of yet another UK housing boom.
    This has created a surge in construction employment along with related industries.

    This feel good factor has produced large knock on effects for other service
    industries, unfortunately it usually ends badly as I have now seen more than
    once living close to London.
    Jul 26, 2014. 05:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unilever Faces Some Headwinds In The Short Term [View article]
    Detailed and balanced analysis.
    Feb 7, 2014. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Bought Unilever This Morning [View article]
    ULVR for me as I am UK based.
    I would not disagree with the long term rational for buying,
    however with 0% earnings growth for 2014 unsure if it is a great buy, yet.

    I would not underestimate the headwinds posed by EM currencies for Q1 '14,
    appreciate for those looking longer term this is a non issue.

    For me under £22.50, preferably lower, the UK listed ULVR is worth consideration.
    Feb 3, 2014. 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unilever: European Alternative For U.S. Peers [View article]
    The new wave of EM currency sell offs is one of the reasons for the latest SP weakness.
    Jan 28, 2014. 09:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Managing Risk In A Mature Bull Market [View article]
    At current levels markets require companies to deliver earnings as expected or it can turn ugly quickly - Best Buy from this week
    is a clear example.

    QE may be one of the foundations of this powerful bull market,
    earnings are as important at these multiples.
    Jan 17, 2014. 04:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Imperial Tobacco: Up To 50% Upside, 5.25% Dividend [View article]
    It's ex the final dividend today, the SP is up about 0.5% allowing for this.
    Jan 15, 2014. 03:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Imperial Tobacco: Up To 50% Upside, 5.25% Dividend [View article]
    Doc, ok thank you for the reply, I did not appreciate you had accounted for the differing debt levels.
    Jan 15, 2014. 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Imperial Tobacco: Up To 50% Upside, 5.25% Dividend [View article]
    When valuing IMT you need to look at the debt levels, particularly in
    relation to BATS the other UK based tobacco company.

    Allowing for the debt, BATS is not valued at 50% more than Imperial.

    Ex div today.
    Jan 15, 2014. 08:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold DeVry And Bought Philip Morris [View article]
    John, EC's are a disruptive technology for the tobacco sector.
    Sure big tobacco will participate in this sector, however so will many non tobacco companies - as it does not require tobacco.

    As a results the EC sector is likely to be ultra competitive with
    lower margins than conventional sticks.

    The news from China this week that they intend to start enforcing
    non smoking in public places clearly underlines the headwinds ahead.

    Current sector multiples look more than fair to me and risk lies to the downside for the sector - all just in my view only.
    Jan 11, 2014. 05:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris Reaches A Critical Junction [View article]
    E cigs margins v sticks rarely get a mention.

    As tobacco is not required this new category may become far more
    competitive than conventional cigarettes.

    The impact this may have on big tobacco going forward is worth questioning, as this is the first viable alternative to smoking.
    Dec 9, 2013. 06:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dr Pepper Snapple: A Long-Term Buy [View article]
    DPS can continue to retire equity which will drive longer term gains,
    provided cash flow remains stable.

    For me the brands are not an issue, it's declining sales of CSD
    and particularly the diet category that needs to be watched carefully, these are sector rather than stock specific issues in my view.
    Nov 25, 2013. 08:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment