poor&unemployed's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/168141/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/174019-american-airlines-remains-ignorant-in-customer-interaction?source=feed#comment-765363 765363
Don't like it - tough luck. Their is nothing you can do! If you don't give them business - Your government will make up the shortfall. They have the UNIONS with them. So why care about the customers.]]> Wed, 18 Nov 2009 10:31:22 -0500
Don't like it - tough luck. Their is nothing you can do! If you don't give them business - Your government will make up the shortfall. They have the UNIONS with them. So why care about the customers.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163742-bdi-signals-slack-demand-for-raw-materials?source=feed#comment-715297 715297
There is something called related party transaction, in which charter rates are manupulated by the related parties. It is like father and son chartering the vessels to each other at $100,000 /day while there are 100 odd vessels willing do the business for $5000 /day or less. BDI includes these transactions to inflate the index.

Explain to me if I am wrong! ]]> Wed, 14 Oct 2009 14:59:38 -0400
There is something called related party transaction, in which charter rates are manupulated by the related parties. It is like father and son chartering the vessels to each other at $100,000 /day while there are 100 odd vessels willing do the business for $5000 /day or less. BDI includes these transactions to inflate the index.

Explain to me if I am wrong! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162737-shipping-stocks-look-good-for-extreme-value-investors?source=feed#comment-693504 693504 ---------


SEA: Stable Returns in a Choppy Market? [View article] Investing in shipping sector is not as simple as it sounds. Most of the time people are swept with the tide and confuse it to understanding the business.

Shipping is similar to real estate - floating real estate.

Sectors include - raw materials, construction, residential, commercial, leisure, homes, apartments, rental buildings, malls, office buildings, warehouses, land, management, brokers, insurance, .... virtually every sector in real estate has a peer in the shipping.

CNBC labeled SSW’s stock movement the “Christmas indicator” due to the high percentage of consumer items that are transported by the company. _ THEY HAVE NO IDEA WHAT SO EVER ABOUT WHAT THEY ARE TALKING! MAY BE THEY HAVE NOT HEARD OF COSCO, AP MOLLER (MAERSK), HAPPAG, HAMBURG SUD, CMA-CGM, HANJIN. THESE COMPANIES CARRY/CONTROL MOST OF THE CONTAINERS IN THE WORLD.

Seaspan vessels are leased to above players on contracts like many other. Many of Seaspan vessels are on lease back deals. They purchased the old vessels from likes of Maersk and leased them back for a few years. (it is opposit of lease to purchase)

COSCO, MAERSK, HAPPAG, EVERGREEN reflect on actual container cargoes.

IMHO - SEA is a vehicle to unload shipping shares to unsuspecting investors.

Look at the bath this sector has taken in past 6 months.

Oct 12 17:31 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Report abuse |Link to Comment ]]> Sun, 27 Sep 2009 18:37:32 -0400 ---------


SEA: Stable Returns in a Choppy Market? [View article] Investing in shipping sector is not as simple as it sounds. Most of the time people are swept with the tide and confuse it to understanding the business.

Shipping is similar to real estate - floating real estate.

Sectors include - raw materials, construction, residential, commercial, leisure, homes, apartments, rental buildings, malls, office buildings, warehouses, land, management, brokers, insurance, .... virtually every sector in real estate has a peer in the shipping.

CNBC labeled SSW’s stock movement the “Christmas indicator” due to the high percentage of consumer items that are transported by the company. _ THEY HAVE NO IDEA WHAT SO EVER ABOUT WHAT THEY ARE TALKING! MAY BE THEY HAVE NOT HEARD OF COSCO, AP MOLLER (MAERSK), HAPPAG, HAMBURG SUD, CMA-CGM, HANJIN. THESE COMPANIES CARRY/CONTROL MOST OF THE CONTAINERS IN THE WORLD.

Seaspan vessels are leased to above players on contracts like many other. Many of Seaspan vessels are on lease back deals. They purchased the old vessels from likes of Maersk and leased them back for a few years. (it is opposit of lease to purchase)

COSCO, MAERSK, HAPPAG, EVERGREEN reflect on actual container cargoes.

IMHO - SEA is a vehicle to unload shipping shares to unsuspecting investors.

Look at the bath this sector has taken in past 6 months.

Oct 12 17:31 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Report abuse |Link to Comment ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158210-baltic-indices-recent-declines-aren-t-worrisome?source=feed#comment-662645 662645
All this and more amounts to artificial bottom or another mini bubble. Someone has to pay or it will be "MONOPOLY" money.

So far, I haven not seen vessels rotting under arrests. Crew without money or food. It makes me wonder, how long before we get their! Yes, we will get their alright. Just remember, once the plug is pulled, there is no stopping.

I expect to see BDI around 250 - 500 range in next few years if not earlier.

Shipping has two seasons - Feast or Famine






]]> Fri, 04 Sep 2009 19:58:06 -0400
All this and more amounts to artificial bottom or another mini bubble. Someone has to pay or it will be "MONOPOLY" money.

So far, I haven not seen vessels rotting under arrests. Crew without money or food. It makes me wonder, how long before we get their! Yes, we will get their alright. Just remember, once the plug is pulled, there is no stopping.

I expect to see BDI around 250 - 500 range in next few years if not earlier.

Shipping has two seasons - Feast or Famine






]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/143160-the-gurus-and-the-little-known-shipping-metric?source=feed#comment-547536 547536
Can someone explain the related party charters affecting BDI?

eg. A large charterer has a panamax on longterm charter at $50k/day. When that vessel is chartered to his related company at spot market rate of $30K / day - is that a real rate while number of other vessels are willing to do the business at $10K or less.


On Jun 15 10:48 AM bdp1ConsultingLtd wrote:

> DSX has ties to the Baltic Dry Index, but its ships are mainly hedged
> out on timecharters now so the relationship is not day to day. TBSI
> may have ever so slight relationship if its multipurpose ships find
> their way into the spot market. But the others are not impacted by
> the Baltic Dry Index.
>
> There are also a group of tanker indices published by the Baltic
> Exchange which you might investigate.
>
> Barry Parker]]> Mon, 15 Jun 2009 15:08:49 -0400
Can someone explain the related party charters affecting BDI?

eg. A large charterer has a panamax on longterm charter at $50k/day. When that vessel is chartered to his related company at spot market rate of $30K / day - is that a real rate while number of other vessels are willing to do the business at $10K or less.


On Jun 15 10:48 AM bdp1ConsultingLtd wrote:

> DSX has ties to the Baltic Dry Index, but its ships are mainly hedged
> out on timecharters now so the relationship is not day to day. TBSI
> may have ever so slight relationship if its multipurpose ships find
> their way into the spot market. But the others are not impacted by
> the Baltic Dry Index.
>
> There are also a group of tanker indices published by the Baltic
> Exchange which you might investigate.
>
> Barry Parker]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/25144?source=feed#comment-524972 524972
It is a good old organized crime syndicate which has robbed the world for centuries. Have they ever fined a European company? SAP may be?

How about forcing Fiat to sell GM cars? ]]> Sun, 31 May 2009 09:25:04 -0400
It is a good old organized crime syndicate which has robbed the world for centuries. Have they ever fined a European company? SAP may be?

How about forcing Fiat to sell GM cars? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/22275?source=feed#comment-472408 472408
What drove him to suicide? How bad are the problems at Freddie?]]> Wed, 22 Apr 2009 09:27:03 -0400
What drove him to suicide? How bad are the problems at Freddie?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130774-the-baltic-dry-index-gets-moving?source=feed#comment-465574 465574
It is not a poorly stated sentence. It is lack of understanding. IMHO unless someone who can explain what BIFFEX stands for, should not be writing about BDI. Now go figure that! Let me know what useful information you need about shipping industry and I will try to give it if time permits.

Most if not all the publically held shipowning companies have defaulted on the mortgages. They are living on a borrowed time like any homeowner, who hasn't made a mortgage payment for six months and has received foreclosure notice from a bank. Exact date when he would be evicted is not known but one thing for sure, he will get evicted sooner than later.

This is not a negative comment. It is a made to warn the unsuspecting investors. Cheerleading should not be a oneway street, when it involves people's hard earned money. I do not have anything to sell or anything to gain. Check my other comments - they are consistant.

On Apr 14 12:40 PM auto44 wrote:

> Poorly stated sentance dosen't mean the author dosen't understand
> the subject. Expert? I guess you are one!!!!!!! How about some useful
> information then. Anyone can produce negative comments.]]> Thu, 16 Apr 2009 14:56:11 -0400
It is not a poorly stated sentence. It is lack of understanding. IMHO unless someone who can explain what BIFFEX stands for, should not be writing about BDI. Now go figure that! Let me know what useful information you need about shipping industry and I will try to give it if time permits.

Most if not all the publically held shipowning companies have defaulted on the mortgages. They are living on a borrowed time like any homeowner, who hasn't made a mortgage payment for six months and has received foreclosure notice from a bank. Exact date when he would be evicted is not known but one thing for sure, he will get evicted sooner than later.

This is not a negative comment. It is a made to warn the unsuspecting investors. Cheerleading should not be a oneway street, when it involves people's hard earned money. I do not have anything to sell or anything to gain. Check my other comments - they are consistant.

On Apr 14 12:40 PM auto44 wrote:

> Poorly stated sentance dosen't mean the author dosen't understand
> the subject. Expert? I guess you are one!!!!!!! How about some useful
> information then. Anyone can produce negative comments.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129261-why-i-like-tbs-international?source=feed#comment-462896 462896


On Apr 10 10:54 PM PeteK wrote:

> We all know that in normal world economy, all these shipping companies
> are Kings & Queens of the Seven Seas.
> Most of these companies were very good and friendly to their share-holders
> in the past. They are fighting for survival right now and we should
> have patience to wait too.]]> Tue, 14 Apr 2009 12:07:53 -0400


On Apr 10 10:54 PM PeteK wrote:

> We all know that in normal world economy, all these shipping companies
> are Kings & Queens of the Seven Seas.
> Most of these companies were very good and friendly to their share-holders
> in the past. They are fighting for survival right now and we should
> have patience to wait too.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130774-the-baltic-dry-index-gets-moving?source=feed#comment-462883 462883 ----------------------...

Another EXPERT giving opinion on BDI without knowing the underlying components.

God help America!]]> Tue, 14 Apr 2009 12:02:02 -0400 ----------------------...

Another EXPERT giving opinion on BDI without knowing the underlying components.

God help America!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130524-a-sign-of-the-times-bulk-carriers-still-being-idled?source=feed#comment-462286 462286
How can it be? BDI is up. It can't be true. The BDI is up! The BDI is up! It can't be true.....................

Those are not American ships listed on wallstreet.........
Those are not Dryship ships....................
Those are not Excel ships ...............

What proof do you have that those are real ships .........

Just kidding. Thanks for the realtycheck.
]]> Mon, 13 Apr 2009 23:36:03 -0400
How can it be? BDI is up. It can't be true. The BDI is up! The BDI is up! It can't be true.....................

Those are not American ships listed on wallstreet.........
Those are not Dryship ships....................
Those are not Excel ships ...............

What proof do you have that those are real ships .........

Just kidding. Thanks for the realtycheck.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129261-why-i-like-tbs-international?source=feed#comment-454139 454139
Also, learn little bit about shipping business and let me know the market value of the vessels purchased by TBS about 6 months ago.

Did I hear it right - $38 million dollar 20 year old junks are worth may be 2-3 million now?

How much money they owe to the banks??
]]> Mon, 06 Apr 2009 19:21:05 -0400
Also, learn little bit about shipping business and let me know the market value of the vessels purchased by TBS about 6 months ago.

Did I hear it right - $38 million dollar 20 year old junks are worth may be 2-3 million now?

How much money they owe to the banks??
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127201-bernanke-desperate-fed-out-of-ammo?source=feed#comment-435825 435825 ----------------------...
So did the Nobel prize winners of LTCM and the people who earned hundreds of millions of dollars at ML, CITI, Lehman, BoA, MS, GS name few.

Give me other people's money and see my advanced theories take it to the sky

OBAMA, Geithner, Bernanke - all are at high stake poker game funded by taxpayers. They have nothing to lose! They will get multimillion dollar speaking fees for rest of their lives, once they are finished with their poker game!

Socialism means everyone will be poor and few will be very rich. Bring out the VODKA .........................




On Mar 22 02:42 PM Karl Glazier wrote:

> This is a typical example of amateur economists (like Ron Paul) who
> have no idea how things work telling the experts what they are doing
> wrong.
> It's like laymen telling brain surgeons they are doing it all wrong.
>
>
> Bernanke is putting the most advanced theories into practice.
> With widespread overcapacity, increasing money supply will not lead
> to inflation, but to renewed economic growth.
> And the Fed is not out of ammunition, because they can create unlimited
> amounts of money, whatever is needed to get us growing again.
> Ron Paul's libertarianism (represented by Greenspan's refusal to
> regulate) is what got us into this mess.
> Unregulated markets lead to booms and busts.]]> Sun, 22 Mar 2009 18:05:37 -0400 ----------------------...
So did the Nobel prize winners of LTCM and the people who earned hundreds of millions of dollars at ML, CITI, Lehman, BoA, MS, GS name few.

Give me other people's money and see my advanced theories take it to the sky

OBAMA, Geithner, Bernanke - all are at high stake poker game funded by taxpayers. They have nothing to lose! They will get multimillion dollar speaking fees for rest of their lives, once they are finished with their poker game!

Socialism means everyone will be poor and few will be very rich. Bring out the VODKA .........................




On Mar 22 02:42 PM Karl Glazier wrote:

> This is a typical example of amateur economists (like Ron Paul) who
> have no idea how things work telling the experts what they are doing
> wrong.
> It's like laymen telling brain surgeons they are doing it all wrong.
>
>
> Bernanke is putting the most advanced theories into practice.
> With widespread overcapacity, increasing money supply will not lead
> to inflation, but to renewed economic growth.
> And the Fed is not out of ammunition, because they can create unlimited
> amounts of money, whatever is needed to get us growing again.
> Ron Paul's libertarianism (represented by Greenspan's refusal to
> regulate) is what got us into this mess.
> Unregulated markets lead to booms and busts.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124317-investing-strategies-with-the-baltic-dry-index?source=feed#comment-423908 423908
I know where to look up BDI without going to DRYSHIP site. When I look at DJ-30 I can find the price of each stock in the index and volume.

BDI is based on opinions of ship brokers on what the rate should be for that particular day.

It is like asking MADOFF for price of his investment fund. All the companies you have mentioned have or are on the verge of technical default on the loans. You have better odds at Las Vegas.


On Mar 10 01:58 AM Mark Anthony wrote:

> The Baltic Dry Index can be looked up at this site:
> www.dryships.com/pages...
>
> It is odd that the author mentioned BDI without giving a site to
> look up the data. It is also amiss that no dry bulker shippers are
> mentioned. As you can see, the BDI has clearly bottomed in early
> December, 2008, and is now surging back up powerfully.
>
> It is now a good time to buy dry bulk shipping stocks. Like EXM,
> EGLE, DRYS, TBSI, GNK, DSX, NM, SBLK. Read here for a discussion
> of the fundamentals:
>
> seekingalpha.com/artic...
>
>
> One portal of dry bulk shipping news is this:
> www.hellenicshippingne...]]> Thu, 12 Mar 2009 22:32:59 -0400
I know where to look up BDI without going to DRYSHIP site. When I look at DJ-30 I can find the price of each stock in the index and volume.

BDI is based on opinions of ship brokers on what the rate should be for that particular day.

It is like asking MADOFF for price of his investment fund. All the companies you have mentioned have or are on the verge of technical default on the loans. You have better odds at Las Vegas.


On Mar 10 01:58 AM Mark Anthony wrote:

> The Baltic Dry Index can be looked up at this site:
> www.dryships.com/pages...
>
> It is odd that the author mentioned BDI without giving a site to
> look up the data. It is also amiss that no dry bulker shippers are
> mentioned. As you can see, the BDI has clearly bottomed in early
> December, 2008, and is now surging back up powerfully.
>
> It is now a good time to buy dry bulk shipping stocks. Like EXM,
> EGLE, DRYS, TBSI, GNK, DSX, NM, SBLK. Read here for a discussion
> of the fundamentals:
>
> seekingalpha.com/artic...
>
>
> One portal of dry bulk shipping news is this:
> www.hellenicshippingne...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124982-rising-baltic-dry-index-sign-of-a-commodities-bottom?source=feed#comment-421252 421252
Have you read today's Lloyd's List? There is some news from DNV about the world having 10,000 ships too many.

Using BDI as a index is like using SP-500 after taking out financial, real estate and commodity company stocks.

BDI is a JOKE! Same as NAR predictions on housing]]> Tue, 10 Mar 2009 21:58:50 -0400
Have you read today's Lloyd's List? There is some news from DNV about the world having 10,000 ships too many.

Using BDI as a index is like using SP-500 after taking out financial, real estate and commodity company stocks.

BDI is a JOKE! Same as NAR predictions on housing]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124317-investing-strategies-with-the-baltic-dry-index?source=feed#comment-416759 416759 ======================...
Where can I find the daily prices to calculate the average???]]> Fri, 06 Mar 2009 19:56:30 -0500 ======================...
Where can I find the daily prices to calculate the average???]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122067-bdi-and-dsk-shipping-chaos?source=feed#comment-400792 400792

The Baltic Exchange is a global marketplace of shipbrokers, ship owners and charters, based in London, England. The Baltic Exchange provides freight indices and route assessments and also operates as a maker of markets in freight derivatives, specifically a type of forward contract known as forward freight agreements (FFAs) that are traded over the counter. The Freight Indices and Futures Committee (FIFC) at the Baltic Exchange is responsible for production of the Index and other freight indices published by the Baltic Exchange, utilizing the professional assessments made by a panel of reporting shipbrokers on the prevailing open market levels. In compiling any of the sub-indices, the FIFC
selects the component routes and determines their weightings with a goal of producing a weighted basket of routes which is as representative as possible of the world's principal bulk cargo trades for that sub-index. The daily level of the sub-index is based on the average assessment made by all reporting panelists of the current market rate with respect to each route included in the sub-index and the applicable weighting for such route.

The publication of the Index and other freight indices of the Baltic Exchange is governed by the following rules.

Publication
The component sub-indices of the Index and the Index will normally be published by the Baltic Exchange at approximately 1 p.m. London time on each business day.

The Baltic Exchange may delay or cancel publication of the indices and routes if considered necessary or desirable. The Baltic Exchange provides route and index data only if it is fully satisfied that sufficient assessments from an adequate quorum of its reporting panelists have been received. If there are not sufficient panelists able or willing to report their assessments on any route or index then the Baltic Exchange has the right not to report on that day or any subsequent days until an adequate quorum has been assembled.

The Panel
The Baltic Exchange appoints a panel of shipbroker companies from its members. The Baltic Exchange may change the number of panelists and the composition of the panel at any time but aims to have panels consisting of at least seven panelists per index. As of July 2007, the number of panelists on each of the four sub-indices of the Index ranges from 12 to 22.

The Routes
The Baltic Exchange has the right to decide which routes are to be included and may alter the composition of the routes from time to time. Since September 2002,

All panelists' returns have been included in establishing the average assessment on dry routes. Prior to that date, both the highest and lowest returns were included.

Weightings
The Baltic Exchange from time to time decides the weighting applied to any route for the purpose of ascertaining its contribution to an index.

Weighting Factors
For the purpose of calculating the indices, the average rate for each route will be multiplied by the weighting factor for that route. The weighting factor for each route is ascertained by the Baltic Exchange and may be adjusted by the Baltic Exchange to take account of alterations to routes or route weightings.

Alterations to the Indices
No more than one route will be removed from an index at any one time. If a route is removed, one or more routes may be substituted for it.

The weighting of an existing route will not be altered by more than an amount equal to 25% of its existing weighting or 2.5% of the index at the date of the decision to make the alteration, whichever is the larger. No such limitation will apply to routes that are removed from or added to an index.

Any one alteration to an index will not result in an adjustment of more than 5% in the regional or commodity composition of a given index. The meaning of "region" and "commodity" for this purpose will be in the absolute discretion of the Baltic exchange.

When an alteration is made, a revised set of weighting factors will be applied to the routes, so that the new index will have the same level as the old index at the date of the alteration. The dry cargo freight market is sensitive to a variety of external variables, the most important of which include the following:

o Fleet supply: The number and types of ships available have a significant impact on the dry cargo freight market. The recent short supply of bulk ships, even as compared to oil tankers or container
ships, has driven up the dry bulk cargo rates.
o Commodity demand: The level of industrial production significantly
affects the dry cargo freight market. The pace of industrial
development in China, India and other developing countries has
compelled those countries to look farther for resources.
o Seasonal pressures: The weather has a meaningful impact on the dry cargo freight market, from the size of agricultural harvests to river
levels or presence of ice in ports that can cause delays.
o Fuel prices: With bunker fuel accounting for between one quarter and one third of the cost of operating a vessel, oil price movements
significantly affect the dry cargo freight market.]]> Mon, 23 Feb 2009 21:31:41 -0500

The Baltic Exchange is a global marketplace of shipbrokers, ship owners and charters, based in London, England. The Baltic Exchange provides freight indices and route assessments and also operates as a maker of markets in freight derivatives, specifically a type of forward contract known as forward freight agreements (FFAs) that are traded over the counter. The Freight Indices and Futures Committee (FIFC) at the Baltic Exchange is responsible for production of the Index and other freight indices published by the Baltic Exchange, utilizing the professional assessments made by a panel of reporting shipbrokers on the prevailing open market levels. In compiling any of the sub-indices, the FIFC
selects the component routes and determines their weightings with a goal of producing a weighted basket of routes which is as representative as possible of the world's principal bulk cargo trades for that sub-index. The daily level of the sub-index is based on the average assessment made by all reporting panelists of the current market rate with respect to each route included in the sub-index and the applicable weighting for such route.

The publication of the Index and other freight indices of the Baltic Exchange is governed by the following rules.

Publication
The component sub-indices of the Index and the Index will normally be published by the Baltic Exchange at approximately 1 p.m. London time on each business day.

The Baltic Exchange may delay or cancel publication of the indices and routes if considered necessary or desirable. The Baltic Exchange provides route and index data only if it is fully satisfied that sufficient assessments from an adequate quorum of its reporting panelists have been received. If there are not sufficient panelists able or willing to report their assessments on any route or index then the Baltic Exchange has the right not to report on that day or any subsequent days until an adequate quorum has been assembled.

The Panel
The Baltic Exchange appoints a panel of shipbroker companies from its members. The Baltic Exchange may change the number of panelists and the composition of the panel at any time but aims to have panels consisting of at least seven panelists per index. As of July 2007, the number of panelists on each of the four sub-indices of the Index ranges from 12 to 22.

The Routes
The Baltic Exchange has the right to decide which routes are to be included and may alter the composition of the routes from time to time. Since September 2002,

All panelists' returns have been included in establishing the average assessment on dry routes. Prior to that date, both the highest and lowest returns were included.

Weightings
The Baltic Exchange from time to time decides the weighting applied to any route for the purpose of ascertaining its contribution to an index.

Weighting Factors
For the purpose of calculating the indices, the average rate for each route will be multiplied by the weighting factor for that route. The weighting factor for each route is ascertained by the Baltic Exchange and may be adjusted by the Baltic Exchange to take account of alterations to routes or route weightings.

Alterations to the Indices
No more than one route will be removed from an index at any one time. If a route is removed, one or more routes may be substituted for it.

The weighting of an existing route will not be altered by more than an amount equal to 25% of its existing weighting or 2.5% of the index at the date of the decision to make the alteration, whichever is the larger. No such limitation will apply to routes that are removed from or added to an index.

Any one alteration to an index will not result in an adjustment of more than 5% in the regional or commodity composition of a given index. The meaning of "region" and "commodity" for this purpose will be in the absolute discretion of the Baltic exchange.

When an alteration is made, a revised set of weighting factors will be applied to the routes, so that the new index will have the same level as the old index at the date of the alteration. The dry cargo freight market is sensitive to a variety of external variables, the most important of which include the following:

o Fleet supply: The number and types of ships available have a significant impact on the dry cargo freight market. The recent short supply of bulk ships, even as compared to oil tankers or container
ships, has driven up the dry bulk cargo rates.
o Commodity demand: The level of industrial production significantly
affects the dry cargo freight market. The pace of industrial
development in China, India and other developing countries has
compelled those countries to look farther for resources.
o Seasonal pressures: The weather has a meaningful impact on the dry cargo freight market, from the size of agricultural harvests to river
levels or presence of ice in ports that can cause delays.
o Fuel prices: With bunker fuel accounting for between one quarter and one third of the cost of operating a vessel, oil price movements
significantly affect the dry cargo freight market.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120821-nordic-american-tanker-excellent-long-play-for-the-income-investor?source=feed#comment-394342 394342
Nordic American Tanker has a break even of about $10,000 per day per tanker.
----------------------...

How did you get this number? This is Operating cost number. That does not even include the management salaries, let alone capital costs. If this was such a simple calculation with high margins - why dont they buy all the tankers in the world?

There is very little barriers for entry in ship owning business. Most tanker owners will give you a tall talks about safety and expertise. That is Bull with Big B. Even the individuals in Venezuela and Nigeria own and operate oil tankers. Yes those 2500 ft long. They are mostly crewed by thirld world officers and crews. ]]> Wed, 18 Feb 2009 20:39:19 -0500
Nordic American Tanker has a break even of about $10,000 per day per tanker.
----------------------...

How did you get this number? This is Operating cost number. That does not even include the management salaries, let alone capital costs. If this was such a simple calculation with high margins - why dont they buy all the tankers in the world?

There is very little barriers for entry in ship owning business. Most tanker owners will give you a tall talks about safety and expertise. That is Bull with Big B. Even the individuals in Venezuela and Nigeria own and operate oil tankers. Yes those 2500 ft long. They are mostly crewed by thirld world officers and crews. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120821-nordic-american-tanker-excellent-long-play-for-the-income-investor?source=feed#comment-394337 394337
One fine day - the charters fall apart and the management buys the ships 10 cents on dollar to take them private.

Remember - Shipping is a floating Real Estate in every way possible.]]> Wed, 18 Feb 2009 20:30:14 -0500
One fine day - the charters fall apart and the management buys the ships 10 cents on dollar to take them private.

Remember - Shipping is a floating Real Estate in every way possible.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120828-still-avoiding-dryships?source=feed#comment-394320 394320
I am still waiting to hear from you!

How is BDI calculated?









On Feb 18 09:22 AM David White wrote:

> The BDI is up again this morning (Wed. 18) +91 to 1986. The BCI is
> up +231 to 3587. The Capesize avg. spot price is up +3180 to $36,815.
> This is the second up day in a row for the BDI. It is especially
> heartening after the carnage in the equities markets yesterday.
>
>
> Still there is much to worry about. The slide in dry bulk shipping
> stocks yesterday came only partially as a result of the market. The
> bad news was that EXM cut their dividend to preserve cash. EXM had
> a problem with two of its charterers, affecting 3 of its ship charters.
> These two apparently just unilaterally decided to start paying EXM
> only 1/2 of the charter contract rate. If EXM lets this stand, it
> will mean a huge loss of income over the life of the contract. If
> EXM gives into these two charterers (i.e. renegotiates the contracts
> or simply accepts their actions), large numbers of charterers will
> likely want to renegotiate their contracts. This would have a huge
> negative impact on the entire industry. This potential "monster problem"
> includes DRYS, which has substantial long term contracts at higher
> than the current avg. spot prices.
>
> I had hoped that the BDI (and avg spot prices) would rise quickly
> enough to obviate this problem. That may still happen, China definitely
> has a lot of importing to do. It should push up prices in the near
> term. I had expected them to go to at least the avg. of the current
> long term contract rates. We shall have to see what happens over
> the next couple of weeks. If the BDI rises to the current avg. long
> term contract rates soon, this problem will likely be much smaller
> in scope. If the BDI does not rise quickly within at least the next
> month, this could quickly become a big problem. The race is definitely
> on. DRYS is in this quagmire along with all of the other dry bulk
> shippers.]]> Wed, 18 Feb 2009 20:13:13 -0500
I am still waiting to hear from you!

How is BDI calculated?









On Feb 18 09:22 AM David White wrote:

> The BDI is up again this morning (Wed. 18) +91 to 1986. The BCI is
> up +231 to 3587. The Capesize avg. spot price is up +3180 to $36,815.
> This is the second up day in a row for the BDI. It is especially
> heartening after the carnage in the equities markets yesterday.
>
>
> Still there is much to worry about. The slide in dry bulk shipping
> stocks yesterday came only partially as a result of the market. The
> bad news was that EXM cut their dividend to preserve cash. EXM had
> a problem with two of its charterers, affecting 3 of its ship charters.
> These two apparently just unilaterally decided to start paying EXM
> only 1/2 of the charter contract rate. If EXM lets this stand, it
> will mean a huge loss of income over the life of the contract. If
> EXM gives into these two charterers (i.e. renegotiates the contracts
> or simply accepts their actions), large numbers of charterers will
> likely want to renegotiate their contracts. This would have a huge
> negative impact on the entire industry. This potential "monster problem"
> includes DRYS, which has substantial long term contracts at higher
> than the current avg. spot prices.
>
> I had hoped that the BDI (and avg spot prices) would rise quickly
> enough to obviate this problem. That may still happen, China definitely
> has a lot of importing to do. It should push up prices in the near
> term. I had expected them to go to at least the avg. of the current
> long term contract rates. We shall have to see what happens over
> the next couple of weeks. If the BDI rises to the current avg. long
> term contract rates soon, this problem will likely be much smaller
> in scope. If the BDI does not rise quickly within at least the next
> month, this could quickly become a big problem. The race is definitely
> on. DRYS is in this quagmire along with all of the other dry bulk
> shippers.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119605-china-and-the-baltic-dry-index-what-s-really-going-on?source=feed#comment-383965 383965
Thanks. Is there any exchange where the charter contracts are registered. Like stock prices - one can not fake trade to boost DJ-30 index.

How do they account for liquidity issues - when there are 50 vessels waiting at Singapore and competing for one cargo. Many owners are willing to take the cargo for cost fuel and running expenses like crew wages or even less.

Is is a open outcry bidding or a private deal between two parties with long business relationship?

How is the BDI calculated?

Thanks again.

On Feb 10 10:29 PM Tatertot wrote:

> It's the price that people pay to ship dry bulk items on ships. The
> only way to manipulate this number would be to start chartering a
> whole bunch of ships yourself.]]> Wed, 11 Feb 2009 11:14:41 -0500
Thanks. Is there any exchange where the charter contracts are registered. Like stock prices - one can not fake trade to boost DJ-30 index.

How do they account for liquidity issues - when there are 50 vessels waiting at Singapore and competing for one cargo. Many owners are willing to take the cargo for cost fuel and running expenses like crew wages or even less.

Is is a open outcry bidding or a private deal between two parties with long business relationship?

How is the BDI calculated?

Thanks again.

On Feb 10 10:29 PM Tatertot wrote:

> It's the price that people pay to ship dry bulk items on ships. The
> only way to manipulate this number would be to start chartering a
> whole bunch of ships yourself.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119353-dryships-the-time-to-buy-is-now?source=feed#comment-383079 383079
Do you even know - how BDI is calculated?

Also, do you know anything about shipping business at all? Ever wondered about daily capital cost, Management salaries and perks? ]]> Tue, 10 Feb 2009 19:06:00 -0500
Do you even know - how BDI is calculated?

Also, do you know anything about shipping business at all? Ever wondered about daily capital cost, Management salaries and perks? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119605-china-and-the-baltic-dry-index-what-s-really-going-on?source=feed#comment-383061 383061
With all this excitement about rising BDI, can you please disclose if you are aware of the method to determine (fix) BDI each day!

Is BDI real index like DJ 30 / S&P 500 or it is imaginary index like returns posted by Madoff?

]]> Tue, 10 Feb 2009 18:56:18 -0500
With all this excitement about rising BDI, can you please disclose if you are aware of the method to determine (fix) BDI each day!

Is BDI real index like DJ 30 / S&P 500 or it is imaginary index like returns posted by Madoff?

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119353-dryships-the-time-to-buy-is-now?source=feed#comment-381775 381775
You have put in lots of time in this PROMO! So can you please explain effect of following (Missing) piece from your 1st follow-up:

Following is from announcement today by NORDEA:

In addition, among other things, lender consent will be required for the acquisition of DrillShip Hulls 1837 and 1838, for new cash capital expenditures or commitments and for new acquisitions for cash until the loan has been repaid to below $375.0 million. The waiver agreement Effective Date will not exceed August 12, 2009, at which time the Company expects to be in compliance with the restructured loan covenants.
]]> Mon, 09 Feb 2009 21:15:21 -0500
You have put in lots of time in this PROMO! So can you please explain effect of following (Missing) piece from your 1st follow-up:

Following is from announcement today by NORDEA:

In addition, among other things, lender consent will be required for the acquisition of DrillShip Hulls 1837 and 1838, for new cash capital expenditures or commitments and for new acquisitions for cash until the loan has been repaid to below $375.0 million. The waiver agreement Effective Date will not exceed August 12, 2009, at which time the Company expects to be in compliance with the restructured loan covenants.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119016-how-big-was-the-nyc-housing-bubble?source=feed#comment-379514 379514
Especially, after dot com .........................]]> Sat, 07 Feb 2009 19:44:23 -0500
Especially, after dot com .........................]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115166-banks-the-final-countdown?source=feed#comment-360054 360054
He will call it a boneheaded mistake and ask the country to move on. Poorer the country gets, more popular he will be. Look at Cuba, Venezuela, and Bolivia to name few. People live on HOPE and politicians thrive on promising the CHANGE and giving the HOPE.

We are drunk and want to drink more. It feels good. Unfortunately, OBAMA administration is likely to give us that last drink, which is going to knock us down for next 12 hours and when we wake up with a massive headache, we will be looking for that strong coffee, a hot shower and HOPE to make it through the day at work without the boss noticing our hangover.

You can run but you can't hide! By the time it is over, we will see, DJ-30 at 4000, SP-500 at about 450, Prime rate at 12-15% and unemployment of about 15-18%.

But if you think this is a bad projection - we will still be the wealthiest country in the world. You don’t want to visualize the conditions in the third world!

Unless of course, if we decide to take the bull by the horn – get the government out of business, stop the bailouts, let the free markets decide the interest rates and credit conditions, let the markets drop back to 90’s and start over …………...

Life wasn’t so bad in 90’s.
]]> Mon, 19 Jan 2009 13:55:04 -0500
He will call it a boneheaded mistake and ask the country to move on. Poorer the country gets, more popular he will be. Look at Cuba, Venezuela, and Bolivia to name few. People live on HOPE and politicians thrive on promising the CHANGE and giving the HOPE.

We are drunk and want to drink more. It feels good. Unfortunately, OBAMA administration is likely to give us that last drink, which is going to knock us down for next 12 hours and when we wake up with a massive headache, we will be looking for that strong coffee, a hot shower and HOPE to make it through the day at work without the boss noticing our hangover.

You can run but you can't hide! By the time it is over, we will see, DJ-30 at 4000, SP-500 at about 450, Prime rate at 12-15% and unemployment of about 15-18%.

But if you think this is a bad projection - we will still be the wealthiest country in the world. You don’t want to visualize the conditions in the third world!

Unless of course, if we decide to take the bull by the horn – get the government out of business, stop the bailouts, let the free markets decide the interest rates and credit conditions, let the markets drop back to 90’s and start over …………...

Life wasn’t so bad in 90’s.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114639-home-prices-may-be-nearing-bottom-bank-equities-to-follow?source=feed#comment-357903 357903
What would you call a stable rate of return on the traditional housing with 20% down?

Using Case Schiller index - what kind of appreciation would you justify since 2000?

If present level of index is sustainable, why no one is buying? ]]> Fri, 16 Jan 2009 14:35:52 -0500
What would you call a stable rate of return on the traditional housing with 20% down?

Using Case Schiller index - what kind of appreciation would you justify since 2000?

If present level of index is sustainable, why no one is buying? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115038-banks-not-lending-anymore-simply-untrue?source=feed#comment-357606 357606
======================...

When the doomsayers were screaming HOUSING BUBBLE, many many many highly educated and powerful people claimed otherwise showing the numbers. Has anyone held them accountable?

Similar was the case with the oil price at $150 / bbl.

You mean to say that the numbers used by the banks just a year ago were correct and we are now living in a parallel universe with all these losses? Or it is just a media conspiracy and in reality the economy is strong?

Wasn't BoA considered safe bank few months ago?

Our economy depends on TRUST not bailouts. If you take a borrow, you pay it back with interest and on time. It depends on the FICO scores and not on cheerleader.

]]> Fri, 16 Jan 2009 10:53:54 -0500
======================...

When the doomsayers were screaming HOUSING BUBBLE, many many many highly educated and powerful people claimed otherwise showing the numbers. Has anyone held them accountable?

Similar was the case with the oil price at $150 / bbl.

You mean to say that the numbers used by the banks just a year ago were correct and we are now living in a parallel universe with all these losses? Or it is just a media conspiracy and in reality the economy is strong?

Wasn't BoA considered safe bank few months ago?

Our economy depends on TRUST not bailouts. If you take a borrow, you pay it back with interest and on time. It depends on the FICO scores and not on cheerleader.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114742-dry-bulk-shipping-recent-bdi-rise-is-heartening?source=feed#comment-357206 357206
When some of the biggest banks in the world have gone under and more are on the way, do you actually believe China is going to save the day?

First lesson in CAPITALISM - you need capital. Without capital, farms grow weeds instead of corn.

Box trade is at grassroot level in the shipping industry. They have people in every port in the world, who know the expected cargo volumes. Box trade indicates total demand destruction for finished goods, which in turn means no demand for raw materials. Dry bulk vessels carry raw materials (including grain). Movement of BDI over next few months would be similar to movement of Fannie Mae stock. It will not be meaningful.

About BDI - It is not a representation of market when there is no liquidity. When 10 vessels are sitting SPOT and one gets the cargo - it is not a market rate. Large charterers have large holdings of publically traded shipping companies.

Similar to homeowners - if you can not pay the bank - you are out.



]]> Thu, 15 Jan 2009 23:45:00 -0500
When some of the biggest banks in the world have gone under and more are on the way, do you actually believe China is going to save the day?

First lesson in CAPITALISM - you need capital. Without capital, farms grow weeds instead of corn.

Box trade is at grassroot level in the shipping industry. They have people in every port in the world, who know the expected cargo volumes. Box trade indicates total demand destruction for finished goods, which in turn means no demand for raw materials. Dry bulk vessels carry raw materials (including grain). Movement of BDI over next few months would be similar to movement of Fannie Mae stock. It will not be meaningful.

About BDI - It is not a representation of market when there is no liquidity. When 10 vessels are sitting SPOT and one gets the cargo - it is not a market rate. Large charterers have large holdings of publically traded shipping companies.

Similar to homeowners - if you can not pay the bank - you are out.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114742-dry-bulk-shipping-recent-bdi-rise-is-heartening?source=feed#comment-356938 356938
There are apples and there are oranges. INDEX AND RATES ARE DIFFERENT. Also, please remember BDI or BCI is not like SP-500 or DJ-30. Daily index is decided by few old men based on REPORTED FIXTURES and not actual contract values.

These are for today:

Baltic Exchange Dry Index 920 (UP 9)

Baltic Exchange Capesize Index 1888 (UP 24)

Daily Summary of the Baltic Exchange Time Charter Routes Rate ($/Day) Change

BCI

Average of the T/C routes $15684 (UP 449)



On Jan 14 09:40 PM David White wrote:

> poor&unemploye... Its actually higher today. The figure today
> was $15684. I just read the charts.
]]> Thu, 15 Jan 2009 16:15:09 -0500
There are apples and there are oranges. INDEX AND RATES ARE DIFFERENT. Also, please remember BDI or BCI is not like SP-500 or DJ-30. Daily index is decided by few old men based on REPORTED FIXTURES and not actual contract values.

These are for today:

Baltic Exchange Dry Index 920 (UP 9)

Baltic Exchange Capesize Index 1888 (UP 24)

Daily Summary of the Baltic Exchange Time Charter Routes Rate ($/Day) Change

BCI

Average of the T/C routes $15684 (UP 449)



On Jan 14 09:40 PM David White wrote:

> poor&unemploye... Its actually higher today. The figure today
> was $15684. I just read the charts.
]]>