poor&unemployed

The Gurus and the Little-Known Shipping Metric

Are others like SECOR and OSG even remotely correlate to BDI? Like I have stated many times on this board, taking BDI seriously is like asking NAR on the housing sales.

Can someone explain the related party charters affecting BDI?

eg. A large charterer has a panamax on longterm charter at $50k/day. When that vessel is chartered to his related company at spot market rate of $30K / day - is that a real rate while number of other vessels are willing to do the business at $10K or less.


On Jun 15 10:48 AM bdp1ConsultingLtd wrote:

> DSX has ties to the Baltic Dry Index, but its ships are mainly hedged
> out on timecharters now so the relationship is not day to day. TBSI
> may have ever so slight relationship if its multipurpose ships find
> their way into the spot market. But the others are not impacted by
> the Baltic Dry Index.
>
> There are also a group of tanker indices published by the Baltic
> Exchange which you might investigate.
>
> Barry Parker

The Baltic Dry Index Gets Moving

Auto

It is not a poorly stated sentence. It is lack of understanding. IMHO unless someone who can explain what BIFFEX stands for, should not be writing about BDI. Now go figure that! Let me know what useful information you need about shipping industry and I will try to give it if time permits.

Most if not all the publically held shipowning companies have defaulted on the mortgages. They are living on a borrowed time like any homeowner, who hasn't made a mortgage payment for six months and has received foreclosure notice from a bank. Exact date when he would be evicted is not known but one thing for sure, he will get evicted sooner than later.

This is not a negative comment. It is a made to warn the unsuspecting investors. Cheerleading should not be a oneway street, when it involves people's hard earned money. I do not have anything to sell or anything to gain. Check my other comments - they are consistant.

On Apr 14 12:40 PM auto44 wrote:

> Poorly stated sentance dosen't mean the author dosen't understand
> the subject. Expert? I guess you are one!!!!!!! How about some useful
> information then. Anyone can produce negative comments.

The Baltic Dry Index Gets Moving

The Baltic Dry Index, an index that follows the cost for cargo and goods traveling by sea.
----------------------...

Another EXPERT giving opinion on BDI without knowing the underlying components.

God help America!

BDI and DSK: Shipping Chaos

If we were to use BDI to determine price of real estate, we will not be having these crisis. It is determined by what ship brokers think (YES THINK) the freight rates should be for a particular route. It is not the actual rate.


The Baltic Exchange is a global marketplace of shipbrokers, ship owners and charters, based in London, England. The Baltic Exchange provides freight indices and route assessments and also operates as a maker of markets in freight derivatives, specifically a type of forward contract known as forward freight agreements (FFAs) that are traded over the counter. The Freight Indices and Futures Committee (FIFC) at the Baltic Exchange is responsible for production of the Index and other freight indices published by the Baltic Exchange, utilizing the professional assessments made by a panel of reporting shipbrokers on the prevailing open market levels. In compiling any of the sub-indices, the FIFC
selects the component routes and determines their weightings with a goal of producing a weighted basket of routes which is as representative as possible of the world's principal bulk cargo trades for that sub-index. The daily level of the sub-index is based on the average assessment made by all reporting panelists of the current market rate with respect to each route included in the sub-index and the applicable weighting for such route.

The publication of the Index and other freight indices of the Baltic Exchange is governed by the following rules.

Publication
The component sub-indices of the Index and the Index will normally be published by the Baltic Exchange at approximately 1 p.m. London time on each business day.

The Baltic Exchange may delay or cancel publication of the indices and routes if considered necessary or desirable. The Baltic Exchange provides route and index data only if it is fully satisfied that sufficient assessments from an adequate quorum of its reporting panelists have been received. If there are not sufficient panelists able or willing to report their assessments on any route or index then the Baltic Exchange has the right not to report on that day or any subsequent days until an adequate quorum has been assembled.

The Panel
The Baltic Exchange appoints a panel of shipbroker companies from its members. The Baltic Exchange may change the number of panelists and the composition of the panel at any time but aims to have panels consisting of at least seven panelists per index. As of July 2007, the number of panelists on each of the four sub-indices of the Index ranges from 12 to 22.

The Routes
The Baltic Exchange has the right to decide which routes are to be included and may alter the composition of the routes from time to time. Since September 2002,

All panelists' returns have been included in establishing the average assessment on dry routes. Prior to that date, both the highest and lowest returns were included.

Weightings
The Baltic Exchange from time to time decides the weighting applied to any route for the purpose of ascertaining its contribution to an index.

Weighting Factors
For the purpose of calculating the indices, the average rate for each route will be multiplied by the weighting factor for that route. The weighting factor for each route is ascertained by the Baltic Exchange and may be adjusted by the Baltic Exchange to take account of alterations to routes or route weightings.

Alterations to the Indices
No more than one route will be removed from an index at any one time. If a route is removed, one or more routes may be substituted for it.

The weighting of an existing route will not be altered by more than an amount equal to 25% of its existing weighting or 2.5% of the index at the date of the decision to make the alteration, whichever is the larger. No such limitation will apply to routes that are removed from or added to an index.

Any one alteration to an index will not result in an adjustment of more than 5% in the regional or commodity composition of a given index. The meaning of "region" and "commodity" for this purpose will be in the absolute discretion of the Baltic exchange.

When an alteration is made, a revised set of weighting factors will be applied to the routes, so that the new index will have the same level as the old index at the date of the alteration. The dry cargo freight market is sensitive to a variety of external variables, the most important of which include the following:

o Fleet supply: The number and types of ships available have a significant impact on the dry cargo freight market. The recent short supply of bulk ships, even as compared to oil tankers or container
ships, has driven up the dry bulk cargo rates.
o Commodity demand: The level of industrial production significantly
affects the dry cargo freight market. The pace of industrial
development in China, India and other developing countries has
compelled those countries to look farther for resources.
o Seasonal pressures: The weather has a meaningful impact on the dry cargo freight market, from the size of agricultural harvests to river
levels or presence of ice in ports that can cause delays.
o Fuel prices: With bunker fuel accounting for between one quarter and one third of the cost of operating a vessel, oil price movements
significantly affect the dry cargo freight market.

Baltic Dry Index Signaling a Market Bottom?

BDI will make all time high by end of 2009, I will be billionaire and media will compare me to Warren.

If not life will go on for this poor and unemployed!

Will All Shipping Companies Suffer Equally?

Finally -

www.forbes.com/2008/12...

Will All Shipping Companies Suffer Equally?

As the shipping companies cut the divident to "ZERO" and struggle with cash-flow, the investors and speculators will lose interest in shipping sector, shares of all the publically traded shipping companies will drop below one US dollar. Biggest investors - mutual funds would not be allowed to invest in them (due to share price) which will bring in private equity supported by the management.

Senior management will personally own all the vessels within next 5 years. - management 100 - Share holders - Zero.

It's same old game from 90's.

Looking Good: Genco in Particular, Shipping in General

Yeah maybe the ships are devalued and that may not look good on the balance sheet but they still float and they still carry goods and they still produce income. Your new car was worth $10,000 less after you drove it off the car lot but it will still get you to work for the next five years.

======================

Do you apply the same logic to real estate??? Wanna buy my condo in Las Vegas?

There is no such thing as low debt in Shipping.

Looking Good: Genco in Particular, Shipping in General

"I decided Monday to put in an order for some DryShips stock, since it was trading at $3.54 and a P/E of 0.17 at Friday’s market close - but it’s already too late for the first bounce, because the ask price at my broker was already up above $23."

_____________

THESE ARE NOT IGNORANT PEOPLE. THEY ARE PAID PUMPER!

Looking Good: Genco in Particular, Shipping in General

There is a old saying, which is much ignored by the "Shipping Pundits" - Hindsight is 20/20. Looking at past earnings and dividents of a highly cyclical company is like finding a hot blind date every Saturday.

There are several thousand vessels out there and above mentioned companies collectively own less than 200 of them. If you look at the 90's, you will find that the investors lost the money but the management of most companies went away with big smile on their faces and few vessels in the pockets.

Incidently, back then we had the "Asian Tigers" this time we have our hopes pinned on China.

SEA: Stable Returns in a Choppy Market?

Investing in shipping sector is not as simple as it sounds. Most of the time people are swept with the tide and confuse it to understanding the business.

Shipping is similar to real estate - floating real estate.

Sectors include - raw materials, construction, residential, commercial, leisure, homes, apartments, rental buildings, malls, office buildings, warehouses, land, management, brokers, insurance, .... virtually every sector in real estate has a peer in the shipping.

CNBC labeled SSW’s stock movement the “Christmas indicator” due to the high percentage of consumer items that are transported by the company. _ THEY HAVE NO IDEA WHAT SO EVER ABOUT WHAT THEY ARE TALKING! MAY BE THEY HAVE NOT HEARD OF COSCO, AP MOLLER (MAERSK), HAPPAG, HAMBURG SUD, CMA-CGM, HANJIN. THESE COMPANIES CARRY/CONTROL MOST OF THE CONTAINERS IN THE WORLD.

Seaspan vessels are leased to above players on contracts like many other. Many of Seaspan vessels are on lease back deals. They purchased the old vessels from likes of Maersk and leased them back for a few years. (it is opposit of lease to purchase)

COSCO, MAERSK, HAPPAG, EVERGREEN reflect on actual container cargoes.

IMHO - SEA is a vehicle to unload shipping shares to unsuspecting investors.

Look at the bath this sector has taken in past 6 months.