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User 168446

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  • In the face of a nasty Greek exit from the eurozone, investors have little choice now but to cling to low-yielding U.S. government debt, says Pimco's Bill Gross. Despite our own debt mess, a flight from risk assets is going to continue to send money into Treasurys. "It's what we call the cleanest dirty shirt," Gross says; "at the moment the cleanest dirty shirt is the United States."  [View news story]
    In all fairness to Bill Gross things change and like everyone else he had better change with them. Three weeks ago the odds of a sudden Grexit weren't 50-50 like they are today.
    May 25 12:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In the face of a nasty Greek exit from the eurozone, investors have little choice now but to cling to low-yielding U.S. government debt, says Pimco's Bill Gross. Despite our own debt mess, a flight from risk assets is going to continue to send money into Treasurys. "It's what we call the cleanest dirty shirt," Gross says; "at the moment the cleanest dirty shirt is the United States."  [View news story]
    This market has not priced in a Grexit. It will be ugly as they default on all debts public and private. It will also cause a run on all PIIGS banks because once the sheep realize that Euros in Greek banks were devalued over the weekend they won't wait for it to happen to them. Best be ready because you won't get advance notice as it will be announced on a Friday after all markets and Greek banks have closed. Could be this weekend. Could be next weekend. Could be June or not at all. The element of surprise is key. The time to think about it is now. After the fact will be too late.
    May 25 12:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Sell your house ... yesterday," Gary Shilling tells Bloomberg. It will take 4 years, he says, to work off still-high inventories, during which time prices could fall another 20%. Turning to Facebook: "(It's) the end of the social media boom ... reminds me of Pets.com."  [View news story]
    Can't bet against it at this point because too many clueless people keep driving housing stocks higher. The shadow inventory will hit eventually no matter how hard the Liberals try to defer it. Until it passes through the pipe housing won't be fixed. I'm just waiting for signs of weakness in builder stocks. It will be a second crack at the generational short.
    May 22 10:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AGNC, By The Numbers [View article]
    LOL....A better example is Japan going on it's 3rd decade of ZIRP. That's what happens when government intervenes and prevents banks from failing. The banks become zombies and the deflationary spiral begins. Ben and his successors will keep printing not just for years but decades and likewise the debauching of the Euro by the EU has only begun. The PIGGS only have high interest rates because they can't print directly but anyone who thinks the EU won't continue to is fooling themselves. The US's two more years of zirp is about to turn into twenty.
    May 20 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After falling all the way to its IPO price of $38, Facebook (FB +8.9%) has bounced, and is now trading at $41.37. That's helped the NASDAQ, down ~1% at one point, head back towards breakeven. Zero Hedge notes over 30M shares traded at $38. "That's some serious underwriter buying," it quips.  [View news story]
    Because that is what we do. $34 is coming once the underwriters have dumped the greenshoe. I'll try to buy some there with a tight stop.
    May 18 07:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Management Presents at Barclays Capital Americas Select Franchise Conference (Transcript) [View article]
    Excellent presentation by the President/Chief Investment Officer. Any serious MReit investor needs to read and understand this rather than listen to the various pundits that haven't a clue. Unfortunately 99% won't and will continue to have ridiculous misconceptions on the differences between the MReits and how they are positioned for the various future scenarios. Are you there Jonk?
    May 18 12:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons To Short European Banks [View article]
    Very scary article from Reuters today re EU Auto Industry. Apparently the governments have been propping up Auto sales since the crash and kicking plant closures and layoffs down the road. They just ran out of asphalt.

    http://reut.rs/JGktkN
    May 15 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons To Short European Banks [View article]
    And there goes support. EU Banks now trading below 2009 lows. My charts don't go back far enough to find the next support or quite possibly this is the all time low for the SX7E. Was 2008 the end of the Financial crisis or just the beginning?
    May 15 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons To Short European Banks [View article]
    It's a SEC nanny state rule. Foreign contracts have to be approved. Can't trade options on foreign exchanges either. The DTB got their futures contracts approved by the SEC otherwise we couldn't trade them. My broker is licensed in Europe as well as Asia and Americas. They do CFD trades for non-American clients.
    May 14 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons To Short European Banks [View article]
    Americans can't trade CFD's. We can however short the Futures on the Euro STOXX Banks Index on the DTB. I covered here because unfortunately it is sitting on support at the Feb 09 lows meaning you are probably a little late for the party. I'll reshort however if it does break thru.
    May 14 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There’s an old Wall Street maxim that the so-called dumb money trades early and the smart money comes in later. Trading by that phrase would have made you a bit of money this week, as equity markets have continually fought back from heavy morning losses over the European mess to close well off their lows. Traders note the three-straight turnarounds for the market are a bullish sign, as big institutions tend to dominate trading activity later in the day.  [View news story]
    LOL...Great video. In reality HFT has cost me a lot of money. I want to go back to the days when I could get inside the market makers speads and scalp 1/8's and 1/16's. Now I have to swing trade instead. Much harder...Ban the damn machines (:
    May 9 11:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why American Capital Agency Should Be A Core Holding In Your Retirement Portfolio (Part 2) [View article]
    Yeah I bought 8800 shares at that secondary and paid an average price of $29.49 for them. I could sell them right now for a gain of $18,656. Damn I feel stupid but at least I didn't take a bath like the NLY cheerleaders. LOL!
    May 8 02:21 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why American Capital Agency Should Be A Core Holding In Your Retirement Portfolio (Part 2) [View article]
    I think you missed the real point regarding the devastating effect of a high CPR on the M-Reits. That is the securities are usually bought at a premium to par. For example NLY reported last quarter that they paid an average of 102.7% for the securities in their portfolio. When they are called they get paid back at par and they lose the 2.7%. They then have to purchase a new security with the proceeds to replace it and thus repay the premium. That would be an average hit for NLY of 5.4% on the 19% of their portfolio that is being called annually. No doubt this is also one of the reasons that NLY has been forced to lower their leverage. In light of that fact Jonk's comments are ridiculous "also CPR is fairly well misunderstood" because AGNC's average CPR at 9% is less than half of NLY's. The securities can be bought with lower or higher interest rates, variable or fixed, low balance or high balance, etc it all goes into the premium that is paid. He obviously does not have the understanding of CPR he pretends to.
    May 8 01:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Outperforms Annaly Capital In The First Quarter [View article]
    LOL You don't take into account the drop in NLY's share price and the increase in AGNC.
    Argue with these guys Jonk. They have an explanation on how to calculate Total Return as well as a computer that does the math for you.

    http://bit.ly/JFXlUv:^SPXTR,type:index,cal...

    Change the date range on the chart to one year or two or three and you will see that AGNC has handily outperformed from it's existence. I will never understand why you guys are in such denial. You cherry pick data out of their results and spin it as bad...why? We all know if the leverage was reversed it would be a good thing. The CPR figure you name wasn't the three month average and you know it. They actually said it dropped. Their's is half NLY's CPR....LOL!

    NLY only wishes they could do a secondary that was accretive. Problem is the shares have been trading under book. As you well know AGNC's increase in book was also the result of appreciation in their underlying securities as well as a secondary where investors were willing to pay a premium to book.
    May 3 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Outperforms Annaly Capital In The First Quarter [View article]
    One year total return with Dividends reinvested thru Today:
    AGNC = 30.85%
    NLY = 5.85%

    Those are some bitter grapes for the NLY cheerleaders.
    May 3 04:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
108 Comments
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