Bababooie

Sirius XM Releases 5-Year Guidance: Aggressive or Conservative?

The average life span of an Auto is 8.5 years according to the US Dept of Statistics. Looking at the .com Bubble sales in '99, '00, and to a lesser extent '01, there are way too many vehicles on the road. The excess of .com was followed very closely by the sub-prime loans. Although there was a minor downturn in '03 sales, far too many vehicles were produced. In '07 Auto sales were more in line with reality, as most sub-primers were locked into their "DREAM DEALS". The devil was paid his due in '08 with a drop of over %30 US auto sales. Predicting anything but a flat Auto market for '09 is Prozaic in nature. Until the existing excess inventory of Automobiles is absorbed, expect flat or minimal growth. An increase of 200K Auto sales next year would IMO be the conservative approach. At BEST, historically, a 20% gain would bring us a 2.5M increase over this year. IMO the Auto industry bottom is here, with slow growth for the next three. If Auto Saturation increases (content is always an incentive for sales), and Auto sales remain steady, the numbers that are given are definitly conservative!