Bababooie

Janco Partners Believes Sirius XM Is Now a Cash Flow Growth Story

The analysts have finally seen data in the financials that make sense to them. The analytic mechanics they use is the same for all companies. There is no deep dive into aspects that do not have a history. Bravo to Sirius for having consistency in their reporting, and to the analysts for recognizing the upward trend.

Sirius stock(ing) stuffers start now!

Sirius: The Next Great 'Crisis' and Some Forgotten Facts

Variable Cost Structure?
The only reason the costs are changing, is because they are going down. The reoriginization of the TWO entities into ONE is not an overnight task. Making a decision (or a statement in your case) is easy, Making a GOOD descision (or Statement!) takes more time!

Dilution:Yes Overvalued:DO THE MATH!
Your statement of dilution is true to the extent that the Debt incurred during the merger percipitated dilution tactics to ensure completion in a timely manner. The majority of these covenants have been re-organized, and the 3Q numbers are better than ever. If this compant was not worth the current SP then the S&P would have never raised it's credit rating on the Company. The Stock dropped to 1.58 immediately after the transaction to FAIRLY reflect the market. The stock then trailed down to .05 due to the timing of Debt Covenantes coming due combined with a declining subscription base. The Debts that cause the problems are off the table, as is the declining Subscription base (as exemplified in the 3Q report). Therefore the SP should be +/- 15% the $1.58.


On Dec 07 09:29 AM CurrentAsset67 wrote:

> The problem with this stock is not that it needs "news", Mr. Self-Appointed
> Expert.
>
> There is no problem with this stock. If anything, SIRI's current
> market valuation overstates the residual value of its equity. It's
> already overvalued.
>
> The problem is with you and every other fast-talking pumper out there
> using every explanation under the sun (including sunspots) to convince
> people that the stock is actually worth more than it really is.<br/>
>
> Given SIRI's staggering variable cost structure, the narrow appeal
> of its product, its ties to the struggling auto industry, the price-sensitivity
> of its customers, the low switching costs customers face when jumping
> to competitors, its astronomical share count, the proliferation of
> alternative media options, its ten-figure debt burden, and its jaw-dropping
> lack of profitability, this company's stock is vastly overvalued.
> Even in a best case scenario, it's worth under $1 per share.
>
> SIRI's stock is generously valued. News does not drive a stock's
> price. Fundamentals do, including the ability to make outsized profits
> and service creditors. After ten years, this company still hasn't
> proven it can execute on fundamentals.

Sirius: The Next Great 'Crisis' and Some Forgotten Facts

Variable Cost Structure?
The only reason the costs are changing, is because they are going down. The reoriginization of the TWO entities into ONE is not an overnight task. Making a decision (or a statement in your case) is easy, Making a GOOD descision (or Statement!) takes more time!

Dilution:Yes Overvalued:DO THE MATH!
Your statement of dilution is true to the extent that the Debt incurred during the merger percipitated dilution tactics to ensure completion in a timely manner. The majority of these covenants have been re-organized, and the 3Q numbers are better than ever. If this compant was not worth the current SP then the S&P would have never raised it's credit rating on the Company. The Stock dropped to 1.58 immediately after the transaction to FAIRLY reflect the market. The stock then trailed down to .05 due to the timing of Debt Covenantes coming due combined with a declining subscription base. The Debts that cause the problems are off the table, as is the declining Subscription base (as exemplified in the 3Q report). Therefore the SP should be +/- 15% the $1.58.


On Dec 07 09:29 AM CurrentAsset67 wrote:

Sirius XM Price Target Raised by Top Media Analyst

Warning letter give the company a chance to provide and execute a plan to get the price over a dollar. The response will be within seven days, the execution will take a litte time thereafter. Even the most uneducated investor can understand car sales are on the rise from last quarter. This rise would give to the subscription numbers also being on the rise. The penetration rate at which the Sirius radios are installed has increased this year over last. The raising of the target make perfect sense. The subscription numbers from Auto have become less significant to the over in come thane in the past. The company can now collect royality fees from the customer, and the new iPhone are just two of the sources of income that mitigate the need for Automotive subscription numbers.
The last time this stock fell below $1, the rise from bottom only took 2 1/2 months. This current rise in SP is not a fluke, it has settled at support price points that supports further growth. Expect gains to over $1 by the 3Q CC.

Sirius Doesn't Seem Headed for Restructure

ONCE AGAIN
for the benefit of those that do not look at the 10k statements: After this year Sirius still has 2.261B in debt (strung out over 5 years). The Origin of the Debt is located next to the amount.

There's nothing in 2010!

3 1 / 4 % Convertible Notes due 2011 SIRI 230,000,000
Senior Secured Term Loan due 2012 SIRI 247,500,000
9 5 / 8 % Senior Notes due 2013 SIRI 500,000,000

and Finally in 2014!
13% Senior Notes due 2014 XM 778,500,000
Less: discount on 13% XM -76,328,000
9.75% Senior Notes due 2014 XM 5,260,000
7% Exch Sr Sub Notes due 2014 XM 550,000,000
leases XM 25,821,000
TOTALS 1,283,253,000

Sirius Doesn't Seem Headed for Restructure

Remember our tote board people?
Our original Goal for 2009 was 1.05B!
Well, as it stands today we have:


$937,588,000

currently the breakdown is:
187,588,000 February
350,000,000 May
400,000,000 December

Does the Auto Industry Deserve To Be Bailed Out?

With a psudeo of Investor Nirav, It's highly unlikely that the author is a North American Born Citizen. Protectionest legislation in other countries are not allowing natural growth of an industry globally. The car companies are taking actions by exporting some of their labor overseas. The Author cited details on wages at the Auto Companies, but failed to mention the actual education that the workers have, and are striving to obtain. The current model of wage is abnormally high, but so are the wages of Financial managers of companies that are fialing and have failed. I am talking about MBA's, & Professors from the likes of Harvard, and Yale. The good ol' boys network got them in a position that their fathers might have been able to handle with LESS education.

The author had indicated that the conversation was with a "fellow student". The Author is obviously in the process of getting an education. Every education comes with a cold shower of reality once in the marketplace.

The Autoworker are getting paid exactly what the marketplace demanded. There are varying degrees of education by these workers. The SMART ones can get a comfortable income, while not having to deal with a lot of stress.

My advise to the Author.....Try and get a job (and Keep it!!)

Sirius' Q2: Expect Revenue Increases

That's old news!! Putting things into perspective:
1) Mel has options to buy at .43, Stock is currently at .39 ...ooops a .04 loss on Mel's part to exercise the but OPTION ( LOOK UP OPTION ON INVESTOPEDIA) So me is tanking stock for what purpose?
2) He can not buy shares at any time!! it is vested over time. Thant means he has to sustain the performance of the company.
3) If stock goes to $5 from here, AND MEL BUYS stock, he earned it! wait....let me quote you
"Next time you hear "Oh, but Mel owns stock and also loses", remember how he gets paid."
That's right .....this is incentive cash. This is not an isolated incident, it is a standard when dealing with highly talented management.



On Jul 22 12:03 PM SIRI-Doom wrote:

> MEL GETs 250,000.00 RAISE and option to buy STOCK LOCKED AT 43 cents.
>
> THAT EXTRA BOND MONEY GOT SPENT!!!
>
> On June 30, 2009, we entered into an amendment (the "Amendment")
> to the amended Employment Agreement, dated November 18, 2004, with
> Mel Karmazin (the "Employment Agreement"). The Amendment (i) extends
> the term of the Employment Agreement through and until December 31,
> 2012, (ii) increases his base salary from $1,250,000 per year to
> $1,500,000 per year beginning on January 1, 2010, and (iii) provides
> for the grant of an option to purchase 120,000,000 shares of our
> common stock, at an exercise price of $0.430 per share (the closing
> price of our common stock on June 30, 2009) (the "Option"). Other
> than as provided in the Amendment, the Employment Agreement will
> continue in accordance with its terms.
>
> TRANSLATION for the "Unwashed"
>
> Mel can now buy 120,000,000 shares at a locked in price of 43 cents.
> He can do the "AT ANY TIME" no matter the current trade value/price.
> So, if in January SIRI is 5.00, Mel can buy it for 43 cents.
>
> (iii) provides for the grant of an option to purchase 120,000,000
> shares of our common stock, at an exercise price of $0.430 per share
> (the closing price of our common stock on June 30, 2009) (the "Option").
>
>
> Next time you hear "Oh, but Mel owns stock and also loses", remember
> how he gets paid.
>
> READ IT TWICE. DO NOT ASK ME FOR PROOF NEXT WEEK

What a GM Bankruptcy Would Mean for Sirius XM Shareholders

In stock, you should buy what you use, or see others using. Bashing a stock has no benefit to anyone but those who short the stock. This stock is not like "another new screen name", it experiences drops and rises on economic activity related to the business of Sat radio. The mood swings which "another new screen name" experiences can be handled with medication. The swings in the SP of Siri can be used to the advantage of the investor and take "SMALL" profits no matter which way the SP goes. Anyway, my opinion is that EVERYONE should do your own homework when investing. My losses are limited to time I've invested reading crap from bloggers like ""another new screen name".

Royalty Changes in Terrestrial Radio Could Bode Well for Sirius XM

I agree with KarlRite. The NAB will use their influence in a manner that would not benefit the common taxpayer/comsumer. The thought of one entity paying a royality while another gets off scott free is laughable. The NAB influence the effect of the Sattellite industry to be required to pay royalities. The real battle should be between the NAB and the recording industry. Artists are being deprived of just income due to a congolomerate of Station holders making money on their intellectual/artistic products. The warning that KarlRite makes should be taken to heart by congress, and a bill should be passed to restrict any affiliated agency with broadcasting from supporting any campaign whatsoever. Media manipulation of the polulatiuon has been going on too long. Congress should recoginize the moral issues involved with free broadcasting. Let the fair market decide. Let equal points of view be heard on FREE Radio.

Auto Sales Projections Add More Worry to Sirius XM

On the ratings, I guess the quote by Groucho Marx fits

"I wouldn't be part of any club that would accept me as a member"

A Tale of Two Economies: Manufacturing vs. Services

mogami_99

Fist we know:
Goodwill. . . . . .= 5 Bill
Fair Mkt Value =13 Bill
Purchase price is calculated to be 18Bil according to your numbers from above..
Goodwill = Purchase Price – Fair Market Value of Net Assets
5 Bil = 18 Bil - 13 Bil

Also by definition:
From above Fair Mkt Value = 13 Bil
Mark-up of assets occur during inflationary times, so this is not true
Fair Market Value = Net Tangible Assets + Write-up of Net Assets
13 Bil = 13 Bill + 0 (asssuming assets are at mkt price)



knowing the 13 Bil to be the Net Tangible total below
and addind the Debt = 3 Bil
The formula provides that the Assest are 16 Bil
Providing that there was no Acquisitions by XM prior to the merger with Siri
Net Tangible Assets = Assets – Target's Existing Goodwill – Liabilities
13 Bil = 16 Bil - 0 (no previous acquisitions) - 3 Bill Debt


Can anyone correct my assumptions on Write-up
. . .or
Target's (XM) Existing Goodwill?

A Tale of Two Economies: Manufacturing vs. Services

From wikipedia: (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...))

Goodwill is an accounting term used to reflect the portion of the book value of a business entity not directly attributable to its assets and liabilities; it normally arises only in case of an acquisition. It reflects the ability of the entity to make a higher profit than would be derived from selling the tangible assets

Basic goodwill formula
Goodwill = Purchase Price – Fair Market Value of Net Assets
Fair Market Value = Net Tangible Assets + Write-up of Net Assets
Net Tangible Assets = Assets – Target's Existing Goodwill – Liabilities

Basically it was bought for more than what it could be pieced out for!

Audiovox / Sirius Deal Means Good News for Consumers

Happy New Year to top ten that Contributed to the SiriXM stock price that it is today.

1) NAB
2) Sub-Prime Loan institutitions that failed
3) Hartleb (6 month delay )
4 - 8) FCC's five comissioners
9) Clear Channel
10) The Domestic Auto Makers.

Can the Sirius XM Shareholders Rescue the Company?

Overall the most interesting slide on the Stockholders presentation was the one that contained:

* JPMorgan and Evercore working on overall financing plan

* 3 areas of activity:
. . . * Operational improvements
. . . * Existing debt holder discussions
. . . * New investor discussions

* Looking to complete all by March 1


ON THE SPLIT
50 * .14 = .70
What good would a 50 to 1 do? Delisting is still uder a buck when re-enacted! This action will not occur until the debt has been resolved and the price starts going back up.

ON DILUTION
Issuance of sock on the already shorted SIRI would not be in favor by financials. They want equity! The bankruptcy of SIRI would still get them money back if they were bond holders. Stockholders would get bubkiss!! The majority of the debt will be refinanced bonds! Verry little will be in the form of stock issuance.

SO. . . . . . .
We got less than 72 days until the Sirius Debt news is known. . . .
and then we have to wait for the economic 90 day Obama report card by the media! That would push it out until April 22nd.