Bababooie

Goldman's Sirius Call: Solid Thesis, Poor Timing

Interesting article, that sort of fits into the Buffet way of thinking
The indicators that apply (in my opinion) are just a few.

1. Think of Stocks as a Business-
This company already has the connections for distribution of the content via internet. A paradigm shift to smart devices (ala Slacker.com) is not that far fetched. The next generation of radios has potential for Ad media on music channels via the mini screens while still providing commercial free (Audio) content.

2. Increase the size of your investment-
Going all in is not a good idea. Although, the Goldman Sachs opinion is a very conservative take on this stock, it points to the fact that the price is near the bottom. I can't predict the bottom, but with the recent press announcement by Mel, we are looking at imminent FCC approval.

3. Reduce Portifolio Turnover-
A good majority of the sour grapes are based on "investors" wanting a quick out. This is never a good application of investing. If you want a sure thing, bet on number 3 in the fifth race at Pimlico.

4. Develop Alternative Benchmarks -
A detailed study of the SIRI stock will reveal the success of the company with or without the merger. Using the current stock price as the Barometer of how well it will do is like saying the Presidential Candidate will win the election, if he takes Florida.

5. Learn to Think in Probabilities-
The probability of FCC approval is very likely. This being said, make for a very attractive acquisition of the SIRI stock. The probability of the FCC denial is political nightmare for politicians.
The loss of either, or both companies, will alienate sports fans (which are voters)

6. Recognize the Psychological Aspects of Investing -
Buffet says it better than I could:
“Retain your belief in the real fundamentals of the business and to not get too concerned about the stock market."

7. Ignore Market Forecasts -
Another Buffet direct quote: “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy
And Greedy When Others Are Fearful”


8. Wait for the Fat Pitch -
The option of having reduced my options, versus investing in others avenues, Financial, China, Oil, Precious Minerals, places this in the middle of the plate. So....swing batter, swing batter


Bottom line:
This article was wonderful! It introduces additional controversy on an already hot topic. I am not a paid professional writer, but

"It's not that I have a crystal ball or that I'm amazingly clever; it's just a matter of using some common sense combined with an understanding of business dynamics and competitive forces."

People love controversy, this article goes a long way to that Point. Up until recently, discussing Satellite radio was like watching paint dry. Reading an article like this (and the associated comments) is like watching Jerry Springer. Thanks to everyone who contributed. I may not agree with your opinions, but they certainly are entertaining.


These eight items are derived from the Oracle himself.
www.investopedia.com/a...