Bababooie

Auto Sales: Good News on the Horizon?

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Auto Sales: Good News on the Horizon?

sl62. . . Your statement on using 20 year old statistics is valid. I did some research for Vehicle longivity from the US dept of statistics. It seems that 20 years ago 6 years was the average life span of an auto. Today the average life span is 8.5 years. You have to wonder with the .com bubble, how many vehicles were "Xtras" due to liquidity. This timing puts the auto industry at the peak due to the .com bubble for it's older vehicles. IMO it will take another 2-2.5 year for the Auto companies to get to at least 14 million vehicles. The numbers indicate a potential rise before that period, but very a very small one. If SIRI is counting on the Auto sector as its mainstay then technology will overcome SATRAD before Auto sales come back.

Auto Sales: Good News on the Horizon?

Thanks to Wards Auto World for the sales numbers:
The % Gain/Loss was calculated.

We still have a bumpy ride (slow growth) from 2008. But after a 27% drop, a gain is ALMOST inevitible.


year sales in thousands %G/L from prior year
1963 8,990 N/A
1964 9,494 5.61%
1965 10,885 14.65%
1966 10,664 -2.03%
1967 9,882 -7.33%
1968 11,487 16.24%
1969 11,552 0.57%
1970 10,211 -11.61%
1971 12,338 20.83%
1972 13,569 9.98%
1973 14,572 7.39%
1974 11,541 -20.80%
1975 11,103 -3.80%
1976 13,291 19.71%
1977 14,859 11.80%
1978 15,423 3.80%
1979 14,153 -8.23%
1980 11,444 -19.14%
1981 10,778 -5.82%
1982 10,538 -2.23%
1983 12,312 16.83%
1984 14,483 17.63%
1985 15,725 8.58%
1986 16,323 3.80%
1987 15,193 -6.92%
1988 15,792 3.94%
1989 14,845 -6.00%
1990 14,149 -4.69%
1991 12,550 -11.30%
1992 13,117 4.52%
1993 14,199 8.25%
1994 15,411 8.54%
1995 15,116 -1.91%
1996 15,456 2.25%
1997 15,498 0.27%
1998 15,967 3.03%
1999 17,415 9.07%
2000 17,812 2.28%
2001 17,472 -1.91%
2002 17,139 -1.91%
2003 16,967 -1.00%
2004 17,299 1.96%
2005 17,444 0.84%
2006 17,049 -2.26%
2007 16,460 -3.45%
and my projection for 2008
2008 12,000 -27.10%